AI Macro TerminalAI-heavy country equity indices, AI company EPS and CapEx time series — Bloomberg BQL hard data

US investment-grade corporate spreads (OAS) sit at 0.78%, in the bottom 15% of the monthly distribution since 1990, and high yield at 2.68%, in the bottom 5%. Despite AI capex circular financing and heavy corporate issuance, funding risk is still priced near historic lows. The credit channel's early-warning has not fired. Yet the 10-year real yield rose further to 2.32% from 2.22% at end-June — a discount-rate drag on long-duration assets.

Fed upper bound 3.75%; 2Y 4.19%, 10Y 4.59%, 30Y 5.10% as the long end rises and the curve stays steep. June CPI cooled to 3.53% YoY from 4.25% in May; June ISM manufacturing 53.3 and services 54.0. USD/KRW 1,490, DXY 100.9, gold $4,053/oz. Korea's June exports surged +70.7% YoY. These are snapshot values and conditions keep moving.

The SOX semiconductor index fell from 14,247 at end-June to 12,662 on July 14, -11.1%, and the KOSPI from 8,476 to 6,857, -19.1%. Over the same span the S&P 500 actually gained +0.6% to 7,544 and the Nasdaq 100 slipped only -2.3%. The correction is concentrated in semis and Korea while the broad US market is intact. Year over year the KOSPI is still up +111% and the SOX +126% — this reads as position liquidation, not valuation impairment.

VKOSPI hit an all-time intraday high of 97.99 on June 29 and stayed in the high-80s panic zone through July. Over the same span the US VIX was a placid 16.5 (7/14). AI and memory volatility is concentrated asymmetrically in Korea. High beta in Korean memory and equipment names compounds with the liquidation mechanics of single-stock leveraged ETFs.

Combined AUM of Korea's single-stock leveraged ETFs, listed May 27, ballooned to 16 trillion won by June 25, broke below 10 trillion for the first time at 9.65 trillion on the July 13 crash day, and recovered to 11.9 trillion on the July 15 rebound. Cumulative retail net buying since listing is 13.82 trillion won (5/27-7/10). On July 14 related turnover of 18.3 trillion won was 40% of the entire KOSPI. The July 16 regulation announcement scheduled a 30-million-won minimum deposit in early August, cash-only margin in mid-August, and a 20-unit minimum trading lot in November — the liquidation pressure is a timetable, not an event.