March CPI came in at 3.3% YoY — the highest since April 2024 — but markets digested the data calmly. Gasoline prices surging +21.2% due to the Iran war drove headline inflation higher, while core CPI remained benign at +0.2% MoM / 2.6% YoY, keeping Fed rate cut expectations intact. Nasdaq (+0.35%, 22,902.89) edged higher, but S&P 500 (-0.11%, 6,816.89) and Dow (-0.56%, 47,916.57) ended their eight-day winning streak. Still, on a weekly basis, the S&P 500 gained +3.6% and Nasdaq +4.7% — the best week since November. VIX dropped below 20 to 19.49, its lowest since surging past 30 in March, with Fundstrat calling it the 'third sign the bottom is in.' KOSPI rose +1.40% to 5,858.87, rebounding after a single day of profit-taking. Bitcoin surged +6.84% to $72,998, testing the $73K level again. WTI eased to $95.63 (-2.29%) as ceasefire hopes kept oil prices stable.
Key Issues
March CPI 3.3% — Iran War Energy Inflation Spike, but Core Prices Benign
Headline CPI +0.9% MoM / 3.3% YoY, highest since April 2024. Gasoline +21.2% accounted for three-quarters of the increase. Core CPI +0.2% / 2.6% stayed tame, supporting the 'transitory energy shock' narrative. Fed rate cut expectations maintained
U.S. Stocks Mixed — 8-Day Win Streak Ends, Best Week Since November
Nasdaq (+0.35%) gained while S&P 500 (-0.11%) and Dow (-0.56%) snapped their eight-day winning streak. Weekly performance was stellar: S&P 500 +3.6%, Nasdaq +4.7%, Dow +3% — best week since November
VIX 19.49 — Drops Below 20, Fundstrat Calls 'Third Bottom Signal'
VIX fell below 20 for the first time since surging past 30 in March. Fundstrat interprets this as the third confirmation signal that the S&P 500 has bottomed. Energy no longer top sector pick
KOSPI +1.40% (5,858.87) — Rebounds After a One-Day Pullback, Semis Lead
Rebound after a one-day pullback from the +6.87% surge on 4/8. SK Hynix gained 2.91% to 1,027,000 won, back above the 1 million won mark, and Samsung Electronics rose 0.98% to 206,000 won
Bitcoin $72,998 (+6.84%) — Tests $73K Again as Risk Appetite Returns
Surged +6.84% from $68,322 to $72,998. Iran ceasefire expectations and declining VIX fueled risk-on sentiment. A break above $73K could test $75K resistance