Haelangdal Daily Commentary

KOSPI was closed for Children's Day (last close 6,936.99 held). US set fresh highs — S&P +0.81%, NASDAQ +1.03% — as AMD's Q1 triple beat (AH +5.5%) and an optical recovery reignited AI multiples. WTI fell -1.97% to $104.33 on Hormuz ceasefire progress.

KOSPI hit a record 6,936.99 (+5.12%) — SK Hynix +12.52% and Samsung +5.44% drove it close to 7,000. Meanwhile, UAE intercepting Iranian missiles lifted Middle East risk: S&P 500 -0.41%, Dow -1.13%, WTI +4.39% to $106.42.

US session closed April earnings season at fresh records — S&P 500 +0.29% and NASDAQ +0.89% to all-time highs. AAPL +3% and CAT's big beat carried the final leg. WTI fell -2.98% to $101.94 on Hormuz ceasefire optimism; KOSPI was closed for Labor Day.

S&P 500 cleared 7,200 (+1.0%) and closed April +5.5% — the best month since 2020 — while KOSPI gave back to 6,598.80 (-1.38%). AAPL Q2 was a big beat (+3.6% AH); Tim Cook explicitly guided "significantly higher memory costs next quarter." Memory pricing cycle has crossed from hyperscalers to device companies.

FOMC held 8-4, the most dissents since October 1992, while Big Tech earnings split sharply after the bell. GOOGL +4% (Cloud +63%, backlog $460B nearly doubled) was the cleanest beat; META -6.15% on FY26 CapEx +$10B was the deepest cut. MSFT/AMZN triple beats drifted lower on CapEx scale — ROI pressure overwhelmed every other narrative.

An OpenAI revenue-weakness report sparked a coordinated AI-chip sell-off (NVDA, AMD, AVGO), pulling Nasdaq -0.90% and S&P -0.49%. KOSPI closed at 6,641.02 (+0.39%), its first ever close above 6,600. After hours, BE surged +9.6% and STX jumped +13% — distributed datacenter power and AI storage cycles printed in tandem.

Monday's US session printed another record close — S&P 500 +0.12% and Nasdaq +0.20% to fresh highs. The session's biggest swing factor: Microsoft's exclusive partnership with OpenAI is ending — a structural AI infra power shift. KOSPI broke 6,600 for the first time at 6,615.03 (+2.15%), with total market cap crossing KRW 6,000 trillion.

A new week begins. Last week, the S&P 500 gained +0.55% and the Nasdaq rose +1.5%, while the SOXX semiconductor ETF is up +28.77% for April — its largest monthly gain in its 25-year history. The SOX index posted an 18-day consecutive gain, the longest streak ever recorded. Key events this week include Big Tech earnings in full swing (Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta) and whether US-Iran talks resume. If Pakistan-mediated second-round talks succeed, downward pressure on oil prices is expected; if they collapse, WTI may retest $100. KOSPI is up +26.4% for April, leading all G20 equity markets, with a tug-of-war expected between foreign profit-taking and further upside momentum.

A historic week comes to a close. Intel surged +23.65% on a Q1 earnings surprise (EPS $0.29 vs. est. $0.01), its best single-day gain since 1987. AMD and ARM each rallied +14% in sympathy. The SOX index extended its streak to 18 consecutive days of gains — the longest ever recorded — while chip ETFs SOXX and SMH saw a record $5.45 billion in April inflows. US markets hit fresh all-time highs: S&P 500 at 7,165.08 (+0.80%) and Nasdaq at 24,836.60 (+1.63%). KOSPI is up +26.4% for April, the #1 performer among G20 equity markets, while Nvidia's market cap reclaimed $5 trillion. The VIX fell to 18.71 (-3.11%), down 40% from its March peak of 31, as fear rapidly dissipates from markets.

KOSPI ended flat at 6,475.63 (0.00%), pausing a three-day record run as foreign investors net sold 1.95 trillion won ($1.31 billion). KOSDAQ, however, broke above 1,200 — its first close above the 1,200 mark since the 2000 dot-com era. US markets shook off the prior session's IBM/ServiceNow disappointment as Intel's blowout earnings reignited chip leadership and Nvidia retook the $5 trillion market cap, sending S&P 500 to 7,165.08 (+0.80%) and Nasdaq to 24,836.60 (+1.63%) — both fresh all-time highs. WTI crude edged up to $94.40 (+0.28%), notching a fifth straight gain but with momentum sharply slowing on news of restarted US-Iran talks in Pakistan. VIX fell to 18.84 (-0.95%), breaking decisively below the psychologically significant 19 threshold. USD/KRW extended its strength to 1,475.19 (-0.36%), and Bitcoin edged up to $78,126 (+0.41%), holding near the $80K level in a momentum-check zone.

SK Hynix posted record-breaking Q1 results: KRW 52.6 trillion in revenue, KRW 37.6 trillion in operating profit, and a stunning 72% operating margin — far surpassing TSMC's 58.1%. This marks a dramatic turnaround from -67% margin in Q1 2023 to +72% in just three years. KOSPI soared to an intraday high of 6,557.76, breaking through 6500 for the first time ever, before closing at 6,475.81 (+0.90%) for its third consecutive record. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) extended its streak to 16 consecutive days of gains — the longest on record since 1994 — surging 39% over the past month. However, U.S. markets pulled back on IBM and ServiceNow earnings disappointments and persistent Iran tensions: S&P 500 fell to 7,108.40 (-0.41%) and Nasdaq to 24,438.50 (-0.89%). WTI crude climbed to $94.14 (+1.85%), its fourth straight day of gains, as Iran's continued restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz weigh on supply concerns.

KOSPI surged to a record high of 6,417.93 (+0.46%), breaking through the 6400 level for the first time in history. President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the US-Iran ceasefire, sparking a global rally with S&P 500 hitting 7,117.81 (+0.76%) and Nasdaq reaching 24,657.57 (+1.64%) — both new all-time highs. The VIX dropped to 19.18 (-1.6%), falling nearly 38% from its late-March peak of 31, signaling a full return to risk-on sentiment. However, WTI crude rose to $92.43 (+3.08%) as Iran refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while US naval blockades continue. USD/KRW edged up to 1,484.91 (+0.88%) but remained stable below 1,500. Bitcoin surged to $78,194 (+3.18%) — its highest since early February — on ceasefire optimism.

KOSPI surged to an all-time high of 6,388.47 (+2.72%), posting a 22.55% gain in April alone—the only major global market to rebound 20%+. Samsung Electronics (+2.1%) and SK Hynix (+4.97%) led the semiconductor-driven rally. Meanwhile, U.S. markets fell on ceasefire deadline jitters: S&P 500 closed at 7,064.01 (-0.63%) and Nasdaq at 24,259.96 (-0.59%). President Trump warned the U.S. military is 'ready to bomb' Iran if no deal is signed, and VP JD Vance's trip to join negotiations was paused due to Tehran's 'lack of commitment.' However, after market close, Trump announced the ceasefire would be extended until Iran submits a proposal, averting an imminent clash. VIX rose to 18.87 (+5.3%) as volatility concerns persisted, while USD/KRW strengthened to 1,472 (-0.5%).

The Nasdaq ended its 13-day winning streak (the longest since 1992) at 24,404.39 (-0.26%), while the S&P 500 slipped to 7,109.14 (-0.24%) as risk-off sentiment emerged following escalated U.S.-Iran tensions over the weekend. President Trump stated that extending the ceasefire beyond April 21 is 'unlikely' without a deal, while Iran attacked commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and reinstated passage controls, sending WTI surging 6.17% to $89.03. The U.S. Navy seized an Iranian vessel and fired on an Iran-linked ship in the Gulf of Oman, escalating the confrontation. KOSPI edged up to 6,219 (+0.44%) on continued foreign buying despite geopolitical risks, and the Russell 2000 hit a record high at 2,792.96 (+0.58%). VIX rose to 17.92 as volatility concerns grew.

The S&P 500 closed above 7,100 for the first time in history at 7,126.06 (+1.20%), while the Nasdaq surged to 24,468.48 (+1.52%) for its 13th consecutive daily gain—the longest winning streak since 1992. WTI crude collapsed -9.6% to $82.60, its lowest level since March 10, and Brent plunged -11.8% after Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz ‘completely open’ to commercial vessels for the duration of the ceasefire. President Trump welcomed the move but insisted the US Navy blockade of Iranian ports ‘remains in full force’ until a comprehensive peace deal is signed, with Washington and Tehran entering the final stretch of framework negotiations covering nuclear non-proliferation, $6B in frozen assets, and Hormuz transit fees ahead of the April 21 ceasefire expiration. KOSPI slipped to 6,191.92 (-0.55%) on profit-taking after a three-day rally, though US market strength and easing energy supply fears could fuel renewed foreign inflows in the next session, while the VIX fell to 17.2, extending the risk-on tone.

The S&P 500 hit a new record at 7,041.28 (+0.26%), while the Nasdaq rose to 24,102.70 (+0.36%), marking its 12th consecutive daily gain—the longest winning streak since 2009. TSMC reported a 58% surge in Q1 net profit (NT$572B), reaffirming strong AI chip demand, and raised its 2026 revenue guidance to 30%+ growth. KOSPI climbed to 6,226 (+2.21%), its highest in over a month, with foreign investors buying for a third straight day. WTI rebounded to $95 amid renewed uncertainty over US-Iran negotiations, while the VIX fell 1.2% to 18.0, indicating continued improvement in market sentiment.

The S&P 500 crossed the 7,000 threshold for the first time in history, closing at 7,022.95 (+0.80%). President Trump expressed confidence that the Iran war would end soon, fueling optimism for geopolitical risk easing. The Nasdaq also hit record highs, breaking through 24K to close at 24,016.02 (+2.12%), while KOSPI reclaimed the 6,000 level for the first time in a month, finishing at 6,180.44 (+3.70%) with SK Hynix (+5.87%) and SK Square (+10.34%) leading gains. Bitcoin climbed to $74,800 on $850M net inflows into spot ETFs. WTI stabilized around $93, easing energy inflation pressures, and VIX held flat at 18.22, signaling continued investor confidence.

Oil prices plunged after Saudi Arabia announced the restoration of East-West pipeline pumping capacity. WTI fell to $92, down -7% from the previous day, easing global inflation concerns and reviving risk appetite. KOSPI surged +3% to 5,960, leading Asian markets higher, while USD/KRW dropped to 1,470 as the won strengthened further. Bitcoin rallied +4.6% to $74,500, reflecting risk-on sentiment. U.S. equities finished strongly with S&P 500 +1.18% (6,967) and Nasdaq +1.44% (23,518), fully wiping out losses from the Iran war. VIX plunged to 18.2, signaling a significant reduction in market anxiety.

President Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz immediately after Iran talks collapsed, sending WTI surging 9%+ to breach $105. However, U.S. equities rebounded on semiconductor and AI infrastructure strength. SanDisk (SNDK) jumped +7% on confirmed Nasdaq 100 inclusion on April 20, while Credo (CRDO) soared +12.8% on Jefferies' new Buy coverage with a $175 target. GPU rental leader CoreWeave (CRWV) also gained +8.1% on Meta $21B + Anthropic $6.8B contract momentum. S&P 500 rose +1.02% to 6,886.24, recovering to pre-war highs, and Nasdaq gained +1.23% to 23,183.74, extending the AI rally. Meanwhile, KOSPI fell -1.26% to 5,785 on Hormuz blockade risk, and Bitcoin corrected -3% to hover around $71,000.

The U.S.-Iran peace talks in Islamabad collapsed after a 21-hour marathon negotiation. VP Vance stated Iran's refusal to commit to abandoning nuclear weapons development was the core reason, leaving a 'final and best offer' before returning to Washington. Iran's Tasnim news agency blamed 'excessive demands' and reported no plans for follow-up talks. All four key issues — nuclear program dismantlement, Strait of Hormuz reopening, cessation of Israeli attacks in Lebanon, and release of frozen funds — remained unresolved. With the April 22 ceasefire expiry approaching, risks of military escalation are rising. KOSPI rebounded +1.40% to 5,858.87, while S&P 500 (-0.11%) and Dow (-0.56%) dipped slightly but posted their best weekly gains since November (S&P +3.6%, NASDAQ +4.7%). Bitcoin hovered near $71,889 and VIX settled at 19.23.

March CPI came in at 3.3% YoY — the highest since April 2024 — but markets digested the data calmly. Gasoline prices surging +21.2% due to the Iran war drove headline inflation higher, while core CPI remained benign at +0.2% MoM / 2.6% YoY, keeping Fed rate cut expectations intact. Nasdaq (+0.35%, 22,902.89) edged higher, but S&P 500 (-0.11%, 6,816.89) and Dow (-0.56%, 47,916.57) ended their eight-day winning streak. Still, on a weekly basis, the S&P 500 gained +3.6% and Nasdaq +4.7% — the best week since November. VIX dropped below 20 to 19.49, its lowest since surging past 30 in March, with Fundstrat calling it the 'third sign the bottom is in.' KOSPI fell -1.61% to 5,778 as profit-taking continued for a second day. Bitcoin surged +6.84% to $72,998, testing the $73K level again. WTI eased to $95.63 (-2.29%) as ceasefire hopes kept oil prices stable.

Global markets traded mixed as uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran ceasefire resurfaced. With Tehran officially claiming ceasefire violations, WTI crude rebounded +3% to $97.87 after plunging -16% the previous day. U.S. equities extended their winning streak to seven consecutive sessions, though gains were modest. S&P 500 (+0.62%, 6,824.66) and Nasdaq (+0.83%, 22,822.42) edged higher, while the Dow (+0.58%, 48,185.80) finally turned positive for 2026 (+0.25% YTD). KOSPI opened down -0.78% at 5,826.45 as profit-taking emerged after the previous day's +6.87% surge. Bitcoin pulled back -1.64% to $68,322 after touching $72,000 on ceasefire euphoria. USD/KRW rose slightly to 1,480.71, though the won remains at its strongest level since March amid robust external fundamentals.

Global markets surged on news of a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire. President Trump announced a suspension of attacks on Iran for two weeks, providing relief from the five-week Middle East conflict. S&P 500 (+2.51%, 6,782.81) and Nasdaq (+2.80%, 22,635) soared, while the Dow (+2.85%, 47,909.92) posted its best single-day gain since April 2025. WTI crude plunged -16% to $94.41 — the biggest daily drop since April 2020 — significantly easing energy inflation concerns. KOSPI surged +6.87% to close at 5,872.34, with Samsung Electronics finally reclaiming the 200,000 won level. SK Hynix jumped +9.06% to 999,000 won, on the verge of reaching the '1 million won Hynix' milestone. However, uncertainty remains as Iran's parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf claimed the U.S. has already violated the ceasefire agreement.

Samsung Electronics reported Q1 2026 preliminary earnings with operating profit of 57.2 trillion won — an all-time record. Revenue reached 133 trillion won (YoY +85%) with an operating margin of 43%, nearly double the 2018 supercycle peak (23.6%). HBM4 mass production starting in February and explosive AI infrastructure demand drove the stellar results. KOSPI rose +0.82% to 5,494.78, with Samsung Electronics (+3.71%, 193,100 won) approaching the 200,000 won mark and SK Hynix (+1.14%) also gaining. U.S. markets closed mixed amid escalating Iran tensions, with S&P 500 (+0.08%), Nasdaq (+0.10%), while WTI surged to $116 — the highest since 2022 — reigniting energy inflation concerns.

KOSPI rose +1.36% to 5,450 led by institutional buying ahead of Samsung Electronics' Q1 preliminary earnings (April 7). Samsung surged +3.79% on expectations of 50T+ KRW operating profit surprise. Reports of U.S.-Iran 45-day ceasefire negotiations maintained end-of-war optimism. S&P 500 (+0.44%, 6,611) and Nasdaq (+0.54%, 21,996) edged higher on ceasefire hopes, though trading volume remained below average ahead of Tuesday's ultimatum deadline. Brent crude dipped to $110.82 (-$0.72) but held above $110, keeping inflation pressure intact.

With global markets closed for the Easter holiday weekend, the second session of the multilateral Hormuz Strait reopening summit (April 4) produced a 'phased reopening roadmap,' significantly strengthening ceasefire momentum. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement conditionally accepting the Muscat Protocol's maritime monitoring provisions, opening the possibility of extending the ceasefire to southern oil fields. Brent crude fell to $108.50 in Middle Eastern spot markets, raising prospects for a Monday gap-down, while Bitcoin edged up to around $67,300, confirming the $66,000 support level and stabilizing after its recent slide. Next week brings U.S. March CPI (April 10) and the start of earnings season with ASML (April 15) and TSMC (April 17), putting market conviction on inflation trajectory and AI infrastructure demand to the test.

With U.S. markets closed for Good Friday (NYSE and Nasdaq), Iran and Oman officially signed the 'Muscat Protocol' establishing a joint coordination center to monitor vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, sparking a wave of geopolitical risk relief. KOSPI surged +2.74% (5,377), recovering much of the previous session's -4.47% plunge, as foreign investors turned net buyers for the first time in 12 trading days. The U.S. March nonfarm payrolls came in at 178K, significantly beating the 135K consensus, confirming labor market resilience, while Brent crude remained elevated at $112.42.

President Trump's primetime address on the Iran war shattered ceasefire hopes, vowing to 'strike Iran extremely hard over the next 2-3 weeks' and threatening to send the country 'back to the Stone Age.' Brent crude surged to $107.85 (+5.2%), and a multilateral summit on reopening the Strait of Hormuz (35-40 nations) convened but ended its first session without concrete agreement. KOSPI initially broke above 5,500 continuing the prior day's rally, but crashed within 45 minutes of Trump's speech, closing at 5,234 (-4.47%). The S&P 500 (+0.11%, 6,582) and Nasdaq (+0.18%, 21,879) recovered from morning lows to close flat ahead of Good Friday.

Q2 2026 opened with a historic bang as President Trump's statement that 'military operations against Iran could be wrapped up in 2-3 weeks' ignited ceasefire euphoria. KOSPI exploded +8.44% to 5,478.70, triggering the buy-side sidecar for program trading. Institutions bought a record 4.03 trillion won net, fully recouping the four-day plunge in a single session. Samsung Electronics surged +13.40% and SK Hynix soared +10.66%, both posting double-digit gains. Brent crude eased from $108 to $102.50 as Iran's 48-hour ultimatum deadline approached, fueling hopes for diplomatic resolution.