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매일의 시장 코멘트와 주요 이슈를 타임라인으로 모아봅니다. 글로벌 시장의 흐름을 해랑달의 시각으로 읽어보세요.

총 13개 코멘트

3월 22일(일)

최신

3월 22일 (일)

Trump's 48-hour Hormuz ultimatum is now in effect as Iran launched missile strikes on two Israeli cities, pushing tensions to their peak. Israel has requested NATO and China's cooperation to reopen the strait, while initiating 'limited' ground operations in Lebanon. The S&P 500 remains below its 200-day moving average with four consecutive weeks of losses, and BTC broke below the $70K support to $68,951 with the Fear & Greed Index at 12 (Extreme Fear).

주요 이슈

Trump 48-Hour Ultimatum in Effect — Threatens to 'Obliterate' Iran Power Plants

Trump warned on Truth Social Saturday that he would 'obliterate' Iran's largest power plants first if the Strait of Hormuz isn't reopened within 48 hours. Iran countered by threatening to strike energy, IT, and desalination infrastructure of U.S. allies. Monday evening is the deadline.

Iran Strikes Two Israeli Cities — Day 23 of Conflict, Lebanon Ground Ops Begin

Iranian missiles hit two Israeli cities, injuring dozens. Israel launched 'limited' ground operations in Lebanon, expanding the front. Death toll in Iran since war began: 1,444 (including 204 children). UK UKMTO maintains 'critical' threat level in the Persian Gulf.

S&P 500 Below 200-Day MA — Four Consecutive Weekly Losses, First Since May 2025

S&P 500 remains below its 200-day moving average for a fourth straight weekly decline — the first such technical bearish signal in 12 months since May 2025. Post-FOMC rate cut expectations have evaporated, with some traders pricing in a 12% probability of a rate hike by year-end.

BTC $68,951 — Breaks Below $70K Support, Fear & Greed at 12 (Extreme Fear)

BTC fell to $68,951 (-2.5%), breaking below the $70K level held for days. Fear & Greed Index at 12, the lowest since the FTX collapse. However, Bitcoin ETF weekly net inflows of $787M indicate institutional contrarian accumulation. Watch $69.5K support / $71.5K resistance.

3월 21일(토)

3월 21일 (토)

Although it's the weekend, President Trump issued an ultra-hawkish ultimatum via Truth Social demanding Iran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, threatening to 'obliterate' Iran's largest power plants if they refuse — sending shockwaves through global markets. On Day 22 of the Iran conflict, Iranian missile and drone attacks are down 90% from early levels, but retaliatory strikes on civilian and energy infrastructure continue. The U.S. administration issued General License U on Friday, temporarily authorizing the sale of approximately 140 million barrels of sanctioned Iranian crude, but market reaction remains lukewarm.

주요 이슈

Trump 48-Hour Hormuz Ultimatum — 'Will Obliterate Iran Power Plants if Non-Compliant'

Trump demanded via Truth Social that Iran fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, threatening to 'hit and obliterate' the largest power plants first if refused. Deadline is Monday (3/23) evening, with extreme market volatility expected at Monday's open.

Iran Conflict Day 22 — Attacks Down 90% but Civilian Infrastructure Retaliation Continues

U.S.-Israel coalition has achieved air superiority with Iranian missile/drone attacks down 90%. However, Iran continues targeting civilian and energy infrastructure. UKMTO maintains Gulf threat level at 'critical,' with 21 confirmed ship attacks since March 1.

General License U — 140M Barrels of Iranian Crude Temporarily Authorized for Sale

U.S. administration issued General License U effective 3/20, authorizing temporary sale of approximately 140 million barrels of sanctioned Iranian crude on tankers through April 19. Critics call it a 'stopgap, not a solution.' Brent closed Friday at $112.19.

SMCI -27% Crash vs Dell +5% — AI Server Market Leadership Shift Signal

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) plunged 27% while Dell rose 5%, signaling a competitive shift in the AI server market. Accounting credibility issues compounded the SMCI sell-off, accelerating sector rotation toward Dell. AI infrastructure demand remains strong but vendor differentiation is intensifying.

BTC $70,722 — Modest Weekend Bounce, Institutional Dip-Buying vs $117M Early Holder Sales

BTC at $70,722 (slight gain). Two early holders sold $117M in BTC, but institutional whales are buying the dip at 'record pace,' defending the $70K level. Fear & Greed Index at 12 (Extreme Fear). $1.2B in BTC options + $680M in ETH options expiring March 27.

3월 20일(금)

3월 20일 (금)

Despite Micron delivering a blowout quarter (EPS $12.20, revenue $23.9B), the stock fell -4.4% after hours on CapEx $25B concerns and 'Sell the News' sentiment, reigniting the AI memory valuation debate. Oil prices plunged from Brent $119.5 to $107 after Netanyahu's comment that 'the war could end sooner than expected,' then rebounded to the $110s on Iran's follow-up strikes. On Day 21 of the Iran conflict, over 150 tankers remain queued outside the Strait of Hormuz, with a daily disruption of 20 million barrels (20% of global supply) ongoing.

주요 이슈

Micron (MU) Blowout Earnings but -4.4% Drop — 'Sell the News' + CapEx Concerns

Non-GAAP EPS $12.20 (consensus $8.79, +38.8% beat), revenue $23.9B (+41% YoY). Q3 guidance raised to $33.5B, but FY2026 CapEx exceeding $25B disappointed. Stock already up +65% YTD with expectations priced in

Extreme Oil Volatility — Brent Hits Intraday High of $119.5, Crashes to $107, Rebounds to $110

After reaching a post-war high of $119.5, Brent plunged over $6 on Netanyahu's 'war could end soon' remarks. Subsequently rebounded on Iran's additional attacks during Nowruz (Persian New Year). EIA projects $95+ for the next two months

Iran Conflict Day 21 — Netanyahu Suggests 'Early War Resolution,' 150 Tankers Queued at Hormuz

Netanyahu claims Iran has 'lost its uranium enrichment and ballistic missile capabilities,' stating 'Israel is cooperating on reopening Hormuz.' However, Iran continues attacking Gulf energy infrastructure even during Nowruz. 150+ tankers waiting outside the strait, with 20M bpd (20% of global supply) disrupted

FOMC Aftermath — Only 1 Rate Cut Projected for 2026, Growth Stock Valuation Pressure Persists

S&P 500 6,606 (-0.27%), Nasdaq 22,091 (-0.28%), down for a second consecutive day. Powell's remark that 'oil shock has kept inflation from declining as expected' continues to weigh. Inflation forecast raised from 2.5% to 2.7%, rate cut expectations retreating, broad pressure on growth stocks

BTC $71K — Fear & Greed Index at 11 (Extreme Fear), Third Test of $70K Support

BTC $71,038 (+1.52%), ETH $2,164 (+0.16%). Fear & Greed Index at 11, a multi-month low. Volume -18% vs 30-day average suggesting a wait-and-see stance, but $70K support defended three times over the past week, confirming institutional buying support at lower levels

3월 19일(목)

3월 19일 (목)

Micron reported Q2 FY2026 earnings with EPS $9.03 (beating consensus of $8.69) and revenue $19.8B (+145% YoY), confirming the HBM supercycle remains intact. The FOMC held rates at 3.5-3.75% as expected, but Powell's warning that 'oil-driven inflation risk cannot be underestimated' pushed back expectations for further cuts this year. Qatar declared Force Majeure on 5-year LNG supply contracts due to Iran's threats to energy infrastructure, materializing an unprecedented supply shock to the global LNG market.

주요 이슈

Micron (MU) Q2 Earnings Surprise — EPS $9.03, HBM Revenue +400% YoY

EPS $9.03 (consensus $8.69, +3.9% beat), revenue $19.8B (+145% YoY). HBM revenue $5.2B, 4x YoY growth, Gross Margin 69.1% beating guidance of 68%. Q3 guidance raised to $20.5B, stock surged +7% after hours

FOMC Holds Rates at 3.5-3.75% — Powell: 'Cannot Underestimate Oil-Driven Inflation'

Unanimous hold. Dot plot median shifted to year-end 3.25-3.50% (1 cut), up from December. Powell warned of secondary transmission effects from Iran-war oil shock, emphasizing a 'patient approach.' Market maintains October first-cut pricing but December second-cut expectations eliminated

Qatar Declares Force Majeure on 5-Year LNG Contracts — Global LNG Supply Shock

QatarEnergy declared Force Majeure on long-term LNG supply contracts citing Iran's retaliatory threats to Qatar's energy facilities. As the world's #1 LNG exporter (77 MTPA), Qatar's supply disruption directly impacts Korea, Japan, and Europe. Asia LNG spot price surpassed $25/MMBtu

Middle East Geopolitical Escalation — Iran Conflict Day 20, Gulf Energy Infrastructure Crisis Deepens

Iran reconfirmed Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG terminal and Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery as explicit retaliation targets. Despite enhanced US 5th Fleet Hormuz escorts, surging insurance premiums continue to deter tanker operations. Brent breaks $108, energy security crisis enters prolonged phase

S&P 500 — Mixed Signals Between MU Earnings Strength and Hawkish FOMC

Micron's after-hours surge lifts semiconductor sector expectations, but Powell's hawkish tone and oil breaking $108 reignite stagflation fears. Nasdaq futures expected to open slightly higher at +0.3%

3월 18일(수)

3월 18일 (수)

On Day 19 of the Iran conflict, Israel struck Iran's South Pars — the world's largest gas field — prompting Iran to explicitly threaten retaliatory strikes on Saudi Arabia's Jubail petrochemical complex, Qatar, and UAE energy facilities, sending oil prices surging above Brent $106. The FOMC is expected to hold rates at 3.5-3.75%, but PPI came in above expectations, reigniting stagflation concerns. Micron's (MU) Q2 FY2026 earnings are due after market close, with the HBM supercycle's durability serving as another key market directional factor.

주요 이슈

Iran Threatens Retaliatory Strikes on Saudi, Qatari, and UAE Energy Facilities

Following Israel's strike on South Pars (which supplies 70% of Iran's gas), Iranian state TV explicitly named Saudi Samref refinery, Jubail petrochemical complex, UAE Al Hasan gas field, and Qatari refinery as retaliation targets. A direct hit on Gulf energy infrastructure could trigger the largest supply shock in history

Brent $106+ — Prolonged Hormuz Blockade + 8M bpd Supply Reduction

IEA projects 8M bpd global crude supply reduction in March — 'the largest supply disruption in history.' WTI breaks $100, Iran warns of '$200 oil,' traders on edge. US retail gasoline up $0.80/gallon over the past month

March FOMC Decision — Rate Hold Certain, Focus on Dot Plot and Powell's Remarks

A hold at 3.5-3.75% is virtually certain. PPI beating expectations adds to inflation pressure, with the Iran-war oil shock strengthening the stagflation scenario. Market pricing first cut from October onward

Micron (MU) Q2 FY2026 Earnings Release — After Market Close

EPS consensus $8.69 (vs company guidance $8.42), revenue $19.1B (+138% YoY). Beat probability 97.5%. Key focus on whether Q3 Gross Margin holds at 68% and the extent of tariff impact commentary

Israel Eliminates Iran's Intelligence Minister + Launches Lebanon Ground Operation

Confirmed elimination of Iran's Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib. Third consecutive high-ranking target after Larijani and Soleimani. Beirut airstrike kills 6, displacing 1 million in Lebanon. Iran retaliates with multi-warhead ballistic missiles, killing 2 near Tel Aviv

3월 17일(화)

3월 17일 (화)

At the GTC 2026 keynote, Jensen Huang unveiled Vera Rubin NVL72, Groq 3 LPU, and DLSS 5, projecting $1T in Blackwell-to-Vera Rubin purchase orders. KOSPI closed at 5,640 (+1.63%) on AI semiconductor optimism, while the S&P 500 slipped to 6,672 (-0.41%) on profit-taking. WTI rebounded to $97.08 (+3.85%), reigniting oil anxiety, and in crypto markets ETH surged +8.3%, triggering a short squeeze.

주요 이슈

GTC 2026 Keynote — Vera Rubin NVL72 + Groq 3 LPU + $1T Revenue Outlook

Jensen Huang confirmed Vera Rubin inference performance at 3.3-5x over Blackwell. First reveal of Groq 3 LPU (fruit of $20B acquisition), Azure as first NVL72 partner, and Vera Rubin Space-1 orbital datacenter roadmap

KOSPI 5,640 (+1.63%) — AI Semiconductor Rally on GTC Tailwinds

SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics surge on GTC beneficiary expectations. KOSDAQ at 1,137 (-0.12%) shows divergent weakness

S&P 500 6,672 (-0.41%) — Profit-Taking After Prior Day's Rebound

Consolidation after Monday's +1.1% rebound. Mixed sentiment between NVDA earnings expectations and oil rebound concerns, tech-led wait-and-see mode

WTI $97.08 (+3.85%) — Oil Rebounds, Trump-Xi Summit Postponed

Trump postpones Xi summit by one month due to Iran war. Brent $103.65 (+3.43%) rises in tandem, reigniting concerns over prolonged Hormuz blockade

ETH +8.3% Surge, BTC ETF Weekly Inflow $1.06B — Short Squeeze Triggered

Despite Fear & Greed at 23 (Extreme Fear), institutions post 3 consecutive weeks of net inflows. Of $106M in 24-hour liquidations, 87.5% were shorts. Reverse Kimchi premium at -1.73%

3월 16일(월)

3월 16일 (월)

GTC 2026 kicks off today with Jensen Huang's keynote (11AM PT) set to reveal full Vera Rubin architecture specs. Key messaging centers on 3.3-5x inference performance over Blackwell and 1/10th token cost reduction. KOSPI rose to 5,550 (+1.14%) as SK Hynix surged +7.03% on AI chip expectations. Oil remains elevated with WTI at $102 and Brent at $105 as the Iran conflict enters its third week, with the EIA raising its 2026 WTI average forecast by $20. BTC broke through $74K, extending a decoupling rally against traditional equity weakness.

주요 이슈

GTC 2026 Opens — Vera Rubin Declares the 1/10th Inference Cost Era

Jensen Huang's keynote reveals full Vera Rubin specs. 3.3-5x inference over Blackwell, HBM4 3.0TB/s+, MoE training GPU reduction by 4x. 30,000 attendees

KOSPI 5,550 (+1.14%) — SK Hynix +7.03% on Explosive GTC Expectations

Samsung Electronics +2.83%, SK Hynix +7.03% on AI memory demand expectations. USD/KRW breaches 1,500 raising import inflation concerns

WTI $102 — Iran Conflict Week 3, EIA Raises Oil Forecast by $20

Hormuz Strait blockade continues, Brent at $105. EIA raises 2026 WTI average forecast to $73.61, a $20 increase. Largest supply disruption in history

S&P 500 6,632 — Third Consecutive Weekly Decline, Closes at 2026 Low

Friday close at -0.61%. Down -4.96% from the year's peak. Prolonged Iran conflict + oil above $100 sustains stagflation fears

BTC Breaks $74K — Broad Crypto Rally, Decoupling from Traditional Equities

ETH, SOL, ADA surge up to 7% in tandem. Breaking above the 50-day moving average signals bullish reversal. Continued geopolitical hedge demand inflows

3월 14일(토)

3월 14일 (토)

S&P 500 closed at 6,632 (-0.61%), hitting a new 2026 low and marking three consecutive weeks of decline. President Trump released footage of the Kharg Island military strike but stated oil infrastructure was preserved. WTI stabilized lower at $94.50. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dipped slightly to 55.5, and with GTC 2026 (3/16) two days away, Monday's Jensen Huang keynote could serve as a catalyst for an AI sector rebound.

주요 이슈

S&P 500 6,632 (-0.61%) — 2026 Low, Third Consecutive Weekly Decline

Weekly decline of -1.6% on prolonged Iran conflict fears. Dow -2%, Nasdaq also closes weak at lowest since November

Trump Releases Kharg Island Military Strike Footage — Oil Infrastructure Preserved

Only military targets at Iran's largest oil export hub Kharg Island 'completely destroyed.' Oil facilities intentionally preserved, signaling intent to stabilize oil prices

UMich Consumer Sentiment 55.5 — Stagflation Concerns Persist

Down -1.9% from February, near consensus of 55.3. Oil price surge and geopolitical anxiety transmitting to consumer confidence erosion

GTC 2026 D-2 — Jensen Huang Keynote on Monday

Keynote at 3/16 11AM PT. Expected to reveal Vera Rubin architecture, Feynman next-gen chip, and Agentic AI stack. 30,000+ attendees

BTC $70,800 — Consolidating After $74K Resistance

Pullback after prior day's surge to $73.8K. Range-bound between $63.9K support and $73.4K resistance, market cap at $1.41T

3월 13일(금)

3월 13일 (금)

After President Trump confirmed the bombing of military facilities on Iran's Kharg Island, WTI spiked to $98 intraday before closing at $95.73. S&P 500 plunged to 6,673 (-1.5%), and KOSPI also showed weakness at 5,583 (-0.48%). With over 1,000 vessels stranded near the Strait of Hormuz, BTC surged to $73.8K (+5%), showing signs of decoupling from traditional equities.

주요 이슈

S&P 500 6,673 (-1.5%) — Plunges on Iran Kharg Island Airstrike

Widespread selling after Trump confirms Kharg Island military facility bombing. Sharp decline led by semiconductors and tech, approaching 2026 lows

WTI $95.73 — Spikes to $98 Intraday on Kharg Island Strike

Oil surges on confirmed airstrike at Iran's largest oil export hub. Treasury Secretary Bessent hints at easing Russian oil sanctions, but limited market effect

1,000+ Vessels Stranded at Strait of Hormuz — 8M bpd Daily Disruption

Iran warns 'blockade maintained until airstrikes cease.' Trump's 'tankers should show backbone' remark escalates tensions

KOSPI 5,583 (-0.48%) — Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Weak

Samsung -2.18%, SK Hynix -2.04%. Semiconductor export-dependent economy faces dual burden from oil shock

BTC $73,800 (+5%) — Decoupling Surge Amid Traditional Equity Sell-Off

Bitcoin approaches 1-month high despite equity plunge. Geopolitical hedge demand observed, testing $74K resistance

3월 12일(목)

3월 12일 (목)

Despite the IEA's record 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release, WTI rebounded to $94.49 on reports of additional Hormuz Strait energy infrastructure strikes, sustaining market anxiety. S&P 500 fell to 6,734 (-0.62%), and KOSPI also closed weak at 5,574 (-0.63%). GTC 2026 (3/16) is D-4 — the detailed reveal of Vera Rubin architecture is expected to be the next catalyst for the AI infrastructure sector.

주요 이슈

IEA 400M Barrel Reserve Release — Record Scale but Oil Rebounds Anyway

Unanimous decision by 32 member nations, US contributing the largest share at 172M barrels. Reports of additional Hormuz infrastructure strikes sent WTI back to $94.49, limiting the release's effectiveness

S&P 500 6,734 (-0.62%) — CPI Relief Rally Reversed in One Day

Reports of additional energy infrastructure attacks near Hormuz reignite geopolitical risk. Tech sector reverses to weakness

KOSPI 5,574 (-0.63%) — Electronics and Pharma Weak, Construction and Machinery Strong

Foreign investors net sold KRW 294.8B vs domestic net bought KRW 297.0B. KOSDAQ diverges at 1,148 (+1.02%)

GTC 2026 D-4 — Vera Rubin + Feynman, the 1/10th AI Inference Cost Era

Jensen Huang keynote on 3/16. Vera CPU + HBM4 288GB/GPU, targeting 1/10th Agentic AI inference cost vs Blackwell. 30,000 attendees

BTC $70,600 — Surprising Resilience Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

Holds $70K support despite ongoing Hormuz crisis. Watch for large $20K put option trades as a warning signal

3월 11일(수)

3월 11일 (수)

US February CPI came in at 2.5% YoY — exactly in line with expectations, easing inflation concerns. Nasdaq and S&P 500 opened higher as risk appetite recovered, and KOSPI also closed with gains. Oracle's Q3 earnings beat (AI infrastructure +243%) and GTC 2026 (3/16) anticipation are driving the tech sector rebound.

주요 이슈

US February CPI 2.5% YoY — In Line with Expectations, Inflation Fears Ease

Exactly matches market expectations of 2.5%. Consumer prices remain stable despite oil surge, maintaining rate cut expectations

Nasdaq and S&P 500 Open Higher — Risk Assets Recover on CPI Match

Eased inflation fears drive tech-led buying. Oracle's strong AI earnings also contribute to improved sentiment

KOSPI Closes Higher — Pre-pricing US CPI In-Line Expectations

Second consecutive day of gains following prior day's sharp rebound. Foreign selling moderates on oil stabilization and CPI expectations

Oracle Q3 FY2026 — AI Infrastructure Revenue +243% YoY, 10GW Secured

Co-CEO Clay Magouyrk states 'inference bottleneck is hardware architecture.' Cloud revenue growth accelerating

GTC 2026 (3/16) Countdown — Deep Dive on Vera Rubin Expected

NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 detailed specs, Groq LPU integration roadmap, and Feynman next-gen chip reveal expected

3월 10일(화)

3월 10일 (화)

President Trump's remarks suggesting an end to the Iran conflict sent WTI plunging from an intraday high of $119.48 to $94.77, triggering a sharp KOSPI rebound to 5,586 (+6%+) from the prior day's circuit breaker crash. S&P 500 closed flat at 6,794. Tomorrow's March 11 CPI release (2.5% YoY expected) will be the key event to gauge whether the oil spike has transmitted to the real economy.

주요 이슈

WTI $119 to $94.77 Crash — Trump Suggests Iran Conflict Resolution

Trump's 'conflict nearly complete' remark triggers plunge from $119.48 intraday high to $94.77. Expectations of Hormuz blockade lift spread rapidly

KOSPI 5,586 — +6% Sharp Rebound After Prior Day's Circuit Breaker Crash

Investor sentiment recovers rapidly on Trump's peace signal. One-day reversal from prior session's sidecar and circuit breaker panic

S&P 500 6,794 Flat (-0.03%) — Consolidation After Prior Day's Sharp Rebound

After recovering from a 900-point intraday plunge with a +0.83% close, 3/10 session saw cautious stance despite oil decline ahead of CPI

March 11 CPI Release Imminent — 2.5% YoY Expected

Crucial test of whether oil price surge has transmitted to consumer prices. Pivotal for the Fed's rate path (currently at 3.75%) and potential rate cut delays

BTC $70.8K — Technical Recovery Amid Extreme Fear

Fear & Greed Index remains at a record-low 8. Rebounded +7% from $66K low, but still well below year-opening highs in bear territory

3월 9일(월)

3월 9일 (월)

As the Iran war enters its second week, WTI broke $107 and approached $120 intraday, while S&P 500 futures plunged -2% on spreading stagflation fears. KOSPI closed at 5,585 after a -10.7% weekly decline, and the March 11 CPI release will be the critical inflection point in determining whether oil-driven inflation is reigniting.

주요 이슈

WTI Breaks $107 — Approaches $120 Intraday, Iran War Week 2

Iran's IRGC warns of '$200 oil,' Gulf producers running out of storage as Hormuz blockade continues. Highest since 2022

S&P 500 Futures Plunge -2% — Stagflation Fears Spreading

NFP employment shock of -92K combined with surging oil prices stokes simultaneous recession and inflation fears. Dow posts worst weekly loss of -3%

March 11 CPI Release — Inflation Reignition Inflection Point

Critical test of whether the 50% oil surge feeds through to consumer prices. Along with PPI (3/12), a decisive variable for the Fed's rate path

BTC $66.6K — Fear & Greed Index at 8, Extreme Fear

Despite ETF net inflows of $568M, geopolitical risk sustains downward pressure. -23% from year-opening highs signals bear market warning

KOSPI 5,585 — Extreme Volatility After -10.7% Weekly Plunge

Wild roller coaster from 6,300 to 5,000 to 5,585. Concerns over export stock damage mount in the $100+ oil era

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