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Theme, macro, bottleneck analysis and company reports — organized by cluster and series.
The Unwind of Japanese Money — How Yen Strength Travels Into US Treasuries and Risk Assets
A joint US-Japan intervention at a four-decade low, a rate gap collapsing from the Japanese side, and the changed composition of a 2.5160 trillion dollar stock — the sequence of the unwind and where to confirm it
Alphabet — How the Rebound in H100 Rental Prices Redraws Hyperscaler Cash Flow
Reading the second quarter of 2026 across five axes — operating cash flow, capex, free cash flow, cloud growth and backlog — and why contracts locked in at the bottom coming up for renewal is the case for a re-rating
Amazon — Compute Rental Pricing Turned, and the Capex Inflation Is Passing Through
Rereading the second quarter of 2026 through cloud operators' operating cash flow, capital expenditure, free cash flow and backlog
Nebius — GPU Rents Are Rising Again, and Where a Neocloud Sits on the Cloud Cash Flow Map
One-year H100 contract rates are 40% above the trough and on-demand capacity is sold out. With cloud backlogs swelling at the same time, this is the ledger of a business whose rental rate is its unit price of revenue.
Microsoft — GPU Rental Rates Rebounded 40%, and the Market Started Rereading Cloud Capex
Fiscal 2026 fourth quarter delivered $90 billion of revenue, Azure up 43% in constant currency, and commercial remaining performance obligation of $678 billion. With one-year compute rental contracts up 40% from the trough and cheap 2024 to 2025 deals rolling off in sequence, the market has begun pricing the assumption that already-installed capacity turns into an asset whose unit price rises without incremental investment. In a quarter when Alphabet and Amazon both went free cash flow negative, this company alone held $19.6 billion positive
Who Gets Paid First
Dissecting the payment structure of the AI infrastructure stack — prepaid vs. deferred
A Comparative Study of Memory Cycles — Five Winters, and a Sixth Question
1996 DRAM, 2001 optical, the 2018 peak, the 2023 downturn, 2025 DeepSeek — re-verifying five collapses with one yardstick: no winter was ever caused by dying demand. The 2026 coordinate is a late upcycle overlapping a leading equity correction