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Newmoneymoves Research · Coverage Scoreboard

The reports we published —
how did they score?

+58.6%vs KOSPI +34.1% · S&P 500 +5.2%

17 covered names · equal-weight backtest from publication dates · as of 2026-06-19 — full methodology disclosed

See the full scoreboardSee the latest reports
entry = 100
Coverage portfolioKOSPIS&P 500
13 themes · 131 stocks · 62 reports
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01Special
Stock Analysis🔬Advanced47 min read

ARM — The Moment the IP Company Holding AI Compute's Instruction Standard Becomes a Silicon Company

ARM is the company that holds the CPU instruction standard at the very top of the AI data center compute stack, and it stands at an inflection point where a mix shift structurally lifting IP royalty per chip and its first foray into in-house silicon in 35 years are unfolding at once. The AGI CPU, its self-manufactured chip unveiled at Arm Everywhere on March 24, 2026, drew cumulative demand exceeding $2 billion just one quarter after launch — double the figure it had announced — and the CEO declared at Computex in June that the FY2031 target of $25 billion would be reached ahead of schedule. FY2026 revenue was $4.92 billion, extending growth in the 20% range for a third straight year, while data center royalties more than doubled year over year.

HHaelangdal·Jun 12
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02SPOT
03Editorial
Editorial Tracksubjective analysis · theses · metaphors

Perspectives.

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The CPU in the Inference Era — What Is Measured Fact and What Is Forecast
SIGNAL BOARD · AI CAPITAL TERMINALUPDATED 06·10
SIG-3 · Memory contract pricing
Normal

DDR5 +100% · capacity sold out · shortage through 2027+ — momentum intact

SIG-1 · Pipeline slippage
Watch

'Half of plans delayed' stat holds · Crusoe Wyoming reclassified as developer swap (excluded)

CREDIT · Credit spreads
Watch

Oracle CDS touched 125bp (highest since 2009) · RPO $553bn

All 6 signals + GW ledger — open the AI Capital Terminal
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Key Numbers
1. Current price (June 12, 2026 close)$380.81
2. FY2026 revenue$4,920M
3. FY2026 royalty / license and other$2,613M (+21%) / $2,307M
4. FY2026 non-GAAP operating margin / non-GAAP EPS43.0% (costs +33%) / $1.77
Scenarios as ranges and triggers — no probability-weighted targets.
EDITORIAL📊Intermediate
Jun 14·20 min

The CPU in the Inference Era — What Is Measured Fact and What Is Forecast

Decomposing the claim that 'inference needs this much CPU' into measured fact, stakeholder forecast and offsetting factors — three tiers of evidence and the Korean memory derivative

The Accounting of GW - Paper Capacity vs Physical Capacity in AI Data Centers
EDITORIAL🔬Advanced
Jun 10·49 min

The Accounting of GW - Paper Capacity vs Physical Capacity in AI Data Centers

A site-by-site reconciliation of announced pipelines against energized capacity - delays do not destroy demand, they shift it to the right

How AI Gets Connected — Reading the Connectivity Value Chain as Layers
EDITORIAL📊Intermediate
Jun 7·22 min

How AI Gets Connected — Reading the Connectivity Value Chain as Layers

Dissecting AI infrastructure's third bottleneck, 'connectivity,' from the basics (scale-up and scale-out) to the 8-layer value chain — where copper's time and light's time split

04COMPANY

Company Reports

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One in front, the rest in 3D — rotate through the latest 10.

Seagate — Bellwether of Mass Storage AI Revived
🔬Advanced
6/18/2026·37 min read

Seagate — Bellwether of Mass Storage AI Revived

The notion that HDDs are a residual technology doomed by SSDs has been flatly reversed in the AI cycle. The cold tier's lowest-cost-per-terabyte requirement redefined HDDs as a mandatory capacity layer of AI infrastructure. The essence of growth is pricing power, not units, and areal-density (HAMR) leadership is margin. Seagate, the representative stock, is the only player with a production HAMR platform — yet it has re-rated ~7x in a year, so valuation risk coexists.

HHaelangdal
Lam Research — When Etch and Deposition Intensity Is the Revenue
🔬Advanced
6/12/2026·24 min read

Lam Research — When Etch and Deposition Intensity Is the Revenue

Lam Research is the etch-and-deposition equipment maker most directly capturing the stage of the AI memory supercycle that is now transitioning into wafer fab equipment orders. The thesis is a multiplication of market growth and share expansion. The wafer fab equipment (WFE) market itself has grown to $140B in 2026 on the company's view, and within it Lam's served available market (SAM) is widening from the mid-30s to the high-30s percent of WFE as chips go three-dimensional. The reason is geometric: the more a chip verticalizes, the more etch and deposition steps each wafer requires, non-linearly. Revenue in the March 2026 quarter hit a record $5.84B, and June-quarter guidance is $6.6B with a record EPS of $1.65. Yet a roughly 86% year-to-date rally has lifted the stock to about 49x annualized earnings, making entry conditional and staged.

HHaelangdal
ARM — The Moment the IP Company Holding AI Compute's Instruction Standard Becomes a Silicon Company
🔬Advanced
6/12/2026·47 min read

ARM — The Moment the IP Company Holding AI Compute's Instruction Standard Becomes a Silicon Company

ARM is the company that holds the CPU instruction standard at the very top of the AI data center compute stack, and it stands at an inflection point where a mix shift structurally lifting IP royalty per chip and its first foray into in-house silicon in 35 years are unfolding at once. The AGI CPU, its self-manufactured chip unveiled at Arm Everywhere on March 24, 2026, drew cumulative demand exceeding $2 billion just one quarter after launch — double the figure it had announced — and the CEO declared at Computex in June that the FY2031 target of $25 billion would be reached ahead of schedule. FY2026 revenue was $4.92 billion, extending growth in the 20% range for a third straight year, while data center royalties more than doubled year over year. That said, the June 12 closing price of $380.81 is roughly 215 times FY2026 non-GAAP EPS — coming right after a roughly 240% rally over three months, and with the sell-side average target price sitting below the current price. The business structure and moat are solid, but flawless execution is already priced in, so entry is best approached through phased buying around volatility events.

H
Bloom Energy — The Fastest Fix for the AI Power Bottleneck
📊Intermediate
5/26/2026·15 min read

Bloom Energy — The Fastest Fix for the AI Power Bottleneck

The real bottleneck for AI data centers is not chips but electricity, and Bloom Energy is the company that fills that power gap with SOFCs (Solid Oxide Fuel Cells) in 6~9 months. In the first quarter of 2026, revenue rose +130% YoY and GAAP operating income swung to a profit, crossing from loss-making growth to profitable growth. Anchor contracts — Oracle 2.8GW, AEP 1GW, Brookfield $5 billion, Nebius about $2.6 billion — prove this demand exists not as an estimate but as contracts. But with market cap up roughly 22x in 12 months and P/S above 30x, it is already an expensive zone, so the investment decision is not the target price but whether the logic holds.

HHaelangdal
PSK Holdings — The Small Window of Descum Is Opening
🔬Advanced
5/22/2026·22 min read

PSK Holdings — The Small Window of Descum Is Opening

PSK Holdings is the only Korean equipment maker breaking Japan ULVAC's 30-year Descum monopoly in HBM and CoWoS back-end processing — and the only Korean supplier to all three memory players AND TSMC simultaneously. Shinyoung Securities' "Reflow demand per CoWoS capacity = 6× HBM" data has been under-cited by the broader market. TSMC CoWoS capacity expands from 40K/month in 2025 to 90K/month in 2026 (2.25×) — and this 6× multiplier lands in P&L during that window. But the company itself guided 2026–2030 operating margin to ≥20%, a ~15pp gap to 2025's 35.3%. The answer is "Yes, but."

HHaelangdal
05Tools
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06Today

Daily
News.

2026-06-19

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KOSPI hits intraday record 9,385, then fades

KOSPI spiked to a record 9,385 early before profit-taking dragged it back to 9,052.

SK Hynix HBM4E did the lifting

SK Hynix rose 3.35% to a record 2.775M won on its 12-layer HBM4E sample shipment.

Index high, breadth weak

The index held above 9,000 but a handful of mega-caps did the heavy lifting.

US shut for Juneteenth

The NYSE and Nasdaq were closed for Juneteenth, so there was no US session.

+1 more issues

KOSPI spiked to a fresh record 9,385 early before profit-taking pulled it back to 9,052. The high-low swing topped 553 points, a rough volatility day.

US markets were shut for Juneteenth, so Korea traded alone.

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Market Briefing

Market notes

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  • 6/18 08:00 KSTHaelangdal· Founder Analyst#FOMC#워시#점도표#AI Capex

    워시 첫 FOMC, 점도표가 답했다 — 이제 인상도 인하도 'News is Bad'

    Korean original (English coming soon)

    워시 신임 의장의 첫 FOMC가 끝났다. 금리는 3.50~3.75% 동결, 네 번째 연속이다. 여기까진 각본대로였다. 시장을 흔든 건 점도표(dot plot, 위원들이 각자 찍는 향후 금리 전망 점)였다.

    Read full briefingDeeperThe Accounting of GW - Paper Capacity vs Physical Capacity in AI Data Centers
  • 6/17 15:00 KSTHaelangdal· Founder Analyst#FOMC#Warsh#Dot Plot#AI Financing

    Warsh's First FOMC — What Really Matters Tonight Isn't the Rate, It's the Vanishing Dot Plot

    Tonight at 3 a.m. Korea time, new Chair Warsh delivers his first FOMC decision. But the thing to watch isn't the rate.

    Read full briefingDeeperThe Accounting of GW - Paper Capacity vs Physical Capacity in AI Data Centers
Haelangdal