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Editor-picked. From series openers to the latest deep dives.
Begin from Part 1, build up
8 ongoing series — tap Part 1 to enter the full series
FOMO Trap Series
Latest part 2: 조정 안 기다린 자도 일부 익절할 시점 — FOMO 트랩 후속
Memory Big 3 Saga
Latest part 3: RAMpocalypse — What Happens After the Memory Big-3 Leave
Iran-Middle East Crisis Analysis
Latest part 5: Iran-US War and Global Markets — The Complete Investor's Guide
Optical & CPO Cycle
Latest part 3: Optical Bottleneck: Why Lumentum and Coherent Are the Real Choke Points
Weekly Market Review
Latest part 10: Weekly Market Review: Week 18 (May Week 1)
Intel Q1 Semiconductor Shortage Saga
Latest part 2: The All-Front Semi Shortage Confirmed by Intel Q1
KOSPI Path Analysis Series
Latest part 2: KOSPI 10,000 Path Analysis
Global Semiconductor CapEx Cycle Series
Latest part 1: 글로벌 반도체 CapEx 사이클 Part 1 — 매크로 분해
Samsung +16% (KRW 270,000) hit all-time high, SK hynix surged in tandem — semiconductor rally exploded.
Trump announced 'Project Freedom' pause; oil gave back most of the April spike.
Following +5.5% AH the prior day, AMD surged further as AI GPU diversification gains traction.
KOSPI 7,384.56 (+6.45%) smashed through 7,000 for the first time — Samsung +16% joins the $1T club. US-Iran deal imminent sent WTI -4.1% to $100; S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit fresh records.
AMD +20% and ARM +23% surged.
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RAMpocalypse — What Happens After the Memory Big-3 Leave
AI data centers are devouring memory raw materials, and the memory super-cycle is unfolding as both an unambiguous golden age for industry, investors, and hyperscalers — and a clear regression for ordinary consumers — at the same time. Per Micron's official disclosure, 1GB of HBM3E requires roughly three times the wafer space of 1GB of DDR5; as the memory big-3 funnel capacity into HBM, general-purpose memory supply gets directly squeezed in a zero-sum structure. Counterpoint Research recorded the first-ever price inversion in memory market history — DDR4 (budget devices) at ~$2.10/Gb above server DDR5 ($1.50/Gb). Apple's base Mac mini jumped from $599 to $799 (+33%), Samsung Galaxy S26 and S26+ each rose by $100, and the 32GB DDR5 module spiked from $149 to $239 in two months (+60%). NVIDIA, for the first time since the 1995 NV1, will not release a new GPU line in 2026 (codename "Kicker," RTX 50 Super series indefinitely delayed); IDC forecasts the global PC market to contract -11.3%. At the same time, SK Hynix posted Q3 2025 operating income of KRW 11.4T (an all-time record), Samsung DS reported KRW 7T, and Micron's FY2026 CapEx of $20B is its largest ever — the industry is unambiguously at peak earnings. This report is built around social diagnosis rather than "buy SK Hynix because of the memory shortage," answering instead: why does this affect daily life, is it justified, and what comes next?
AI's Real Bottleneck — OSAT Packaging Wars
The real AI supply bottleneck isn't the GPU die itself — it's the packaging (CoWoS). TSMC, NVIDIA, and Amkor have all officially conceded that CoWoS capacity is oversubscribed through mid-2026, and that confession has elevated the entire OSAT industry into a gatekeeper for AI infrastructure. TSMC's CoWoS capacity scaled from 10K wafers/month in Q1 2023 to a projected 130K/month by Q4 2026 — a 13x expansion — yet NVIDIA alone has booked more than 50% of that for 2026, forcing Amkor and ASE/SPIL to take outsourced capacity for the first time in 2025. The global OSAT market is dominated by Taiwan (45.9%) — ASE 30%, JCET 12%, SPIL 8%, PTI 6% — with Amkor as the lone US OSAT at 13.4% and Korea a peripheral player at 4% (Hana Micron 1.8%, SFA Semicon 1.4%) accessed via memory back-end outsourcing and HBM stacking equipment. Korea's quiet champion isn't an OSAT — it's Hanmi Semiconductor, which holds 70%+ global share of HBM TC bonders. But that pricing power is being tested: SK Hynix placed HBM4 TC bonder orders with ASMPT in December 2025 amid an ongoing Hanmi-Hanwha patent dispute, and Hanmi's share of SK Hynix's TC bonder business may fall to 20-30% in 2026. Looking forward, the next packaging shifts — Hybrid Bonding (BESI dominant), CPO (TSMC COUPE plus optical components), and FOPLP (Amkor and Nepes Ark) — converge on a 2027-28 inflection point that will redraw the industry map. For Korean investors, the cleanest exposure framework splits into three axes: (1) HBM equipment (Hanmi Semiconductor, Eo Technics), (2) memory OSAT outsourcing (Hana Micron, SFA Semicon), and (3) packaging inspection and test (Intekplus, Leeno Industrial, ISC).
Optical Bottleneck: Why Lumentum and Coherent Are the Real Choke Points
Lumentum and Coherent sit at the narrowest optical bottleneck in the 1.6T, 200G EML and CPO transition. Next week's earnings are the first public test of whether the AI data-center optical cycle is a generic recovery or a true bottleneck premium. The key is not headline beats, but 200G EML orders, 1.6T guidance and Datacenter/Components mix.
AI Infrastructure 4 Bottlenecks — Big Tech Q1 2026 Earnings Summary
Big Tech 4 companies' 2026 CapEx increased from $645B to $700B+, with more than half of the increase due to memory price hikes. Microsoft CFO explicitly stated that $250B of the $300B increase is component costs. Memory, power, custom chips, and optics — four bottlenecks are converging simultaneously. Top picks by bottleneck: SK hynix/Samsung (memory), Doosan Enerbility (power), TSMC/Marvell (custom chips), Lumentum (optics). We prioritize true global leaders over forcing Korean names into recommendations.
글로벌 반도체 CapEx 사이클 Part 1 — 매크로 분해
글로벌 반도체 CapEx 사이클이 TSMC 2나노 5개 fab 동시 가동 + 메모리 3사 (SK하이닉스 청주·인디애나·용인, 삼성 평택 P4·P5, 마이크론 Idaho·NY·Singapore) 동시 케파 확장 + 소부장 3중 발주 사이클로 진입했다. TSMC SoIC 어드밴스드 패키징 CAGR이 가장 빠르며, 한국 한미반도체 TC본더·HPSP 고압 어닐링이 점유율 50%+ 1차 수혜 사업자로 식별된다. 일본은 디스코·아드반테스트·도쿄일렉트론·신에츠·JSR이 핵심. 사이클 정점은 2027 H2~2028 H1로 추정, Part 2(한국)·Part 3(일본)에서 종목별 심층 IC 메모로 이어진다.
조정 안 기다린 자도 일부 익절할 시점 — FOMO 트랩 후속
AAII Bull 35.7% → 46.0% (+14.3%p 점프, 1991년 이후 상위 5% 영역)으로 4/17 리포트가 명시한 임계점 45% 돌파 — FOMO Surrender(⑦단계) 진입 트리거 발동. Russell 2000이 1월 고점 돌파(2,775)하며 브레드스 확산 가설도 동시 실현됐다. 11일 만에 ④~⑤ 전환구간 → ⑦ 진입 초기로 2단계 도약(정상 사이클의 3~4배 가속). 다만 VIX 18.71·SKEW 139.64·10Y-2Y 55bp 모두 임계점 미달이므로 전면 청산이 아닌 부분 익절(5~10%p) + 브레드스 확산 수혜 섹터(Russell 2000·소형주)로의 로테이션이 합리적. 확률가중 12M 타겟은 7,520(현재 7,174 기준 +4.8%)로 소폭 하향, Bull 25→30% / Base 55→50%.
Company Reports
MSTR STRC Deep Dive — Anatomy of a Non-Dilutive BTC Acquisition Engine
MSTR's non-convertible perpetual preferred STRC is an instrument that takes only MSTR credit risk — not BTC upside — in exchange for an 11.5% cash coupon and a $100 quasi-peg. In April, the company has moved to financing 100% via STRC, skipping MSTR common-stock ATM entirely. Against DeFi, the after-tax real spread is ~9.8%p. With $21.6B of remaining capacity, STRC alone can buy 72,000 BTC per quarter — exceeding every past quarter except the Q4 2024 outlier — making it a repeatable accumulation engine.
Samsung Electronics Q1 2026: KRW 57.2T Operating Profit Rewrites History
Samsung Electronics achieved Q1 2026 preliminary results with revenue of KRW 133T and operating profit of KRW 57.2T (YoY +755%), marking all-time record earnings. Operating margin reached ~43%, 1.8x the 2018 super cycle peak (23.6%). The combination of HBM4 mass production and DRAM price surge has structurally confirmed the memory super cycle. DCF analysis yields a Base Case fair value of KRW 325K and probability-weighted fair value of KRW 295K, indicating the current price of KRW 193K represents structural undervaluation.
NVIDIA Deep Dive: The Next Decade of the AI Empire
Comprehensive analysis of NVIDIA's transformation from a GPU company to a full-stack AI platform.
SK Hynix Deep Dive: The Value of the HBM Throne
In-depth analysis of SK Hynix's dominant position in the HBM market and its structural valuation premium.
Investment Ideas
View all 130NVIDIA — Undisputed AI Accelerator Leader, B200/B300 Cycle in Full Swing
SK hynix — Global #1 in HBM, Top Beneficiary of the Memory Super Cycle
Vertiv — Top Beneficiary of AI Data Center Cooling/Power, Orders +252%
Samsung Electronics — Record Q1 Confirms Memory Super Cycle
Eli Lilly — Undisputed Leader in the GLP-1 Obesity Treatment Market
Hanwha Aerospace — Spearhead of K-Defense Exports, European Orders Expanding
GE Vernova — Core Beneficiary of the Gas Turbine Demand Explosion
| Symbol | Theme | Conviction | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
NVIDIA NVIDIA — Undisputed AI Accelerator Leader, B200/B300 Cycle in Full Swing | AI Accelerators & Fabless | 2/24 | |
SK hynix SK hynix — Global #1 in HBM, Top Beneficiary of the Memory Super Cycle | AI Memory & HBM | 2/24 | |
VRT Vertiv — Top Beneficiary of AI Data Center Cooling/Power, Orders +252% | Data Center Power & Cooling | 2/24 | |
Samsung Electronics Samsung Electronics — Record Q1 Confirms Memory Super Cycle | Korean AI Infrastructure Beneficiaries | 4/7 | |
Eli Lilly Eli Lilly — Undisputed Leader in the GLP-1 Obesity Treatment Market | K-Bio & Drug Development | 2/24 | |
Hanwha Aerospace Hanwha Aerospace — Spearhead of K-Defense Exports, European Orders Expanding | Defense & Aerospace | 2/24 | |
GEV GE Vernova — Core Beneficiary of the Gas Turbine Demand Explosion | Gas Turbines & On-Site Power Generation | 2/25 |