Data center power hunger has lifted the backlog of gas-fired power equipment maker GE Vernova (GEV). Its production slots are effectively sold out through 2030.
GE Vernova is one of three companies in the gas turbine oligopoly and holds the physical bottleneck of the power equipment supercycle that AI demand created. A $163.3B backlog, gas slots sold out through 2030, and a service annuity on an installed base of 7,000 turbines anchor its earnings floor.
Q1 orders of $18.3B (+71% organic), $4.0B of gas turbine orders tied directly to data centers, and $2.4B of data center electrification orders all exceeded full-year 2025 in a single quarter. FY2026 guidance was raised (revenue $44.5-45.5B, FCF $6.5-7.5B).
Beneficiaries: GE Vernova, the gas turbine oligopoly trio (Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Power), transformers/grid (Prolec). Headwinds: slot saturation caps near-term top-line acceleration, offshore wind losses (Vineyard Wind litigation), and a valuation premium at roughly 47x forward P/E.
U.S. power demand stood still for nearly a generation.
Factories moved overseas; appliances and lighting grew more efficient. The economy grew, but power consumption barely rose. For about two decades, U.S. power demand was essentially flat.
That line has begun to bend. Data centers, EV charging, and manufacturing reshoring are pulling power simultaneously. The steepest curve among them is the AI data center.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that data center power consumption will double by 2030 and triple by 2035 versus 2024. Global power demand is expected to grow at roughly 3.6% CAGR over 2026-2030, about 50% faster than the prior decade.
When demand rises fast, the first thing to run short is not the chip but the electricity to run that chip and the generator to make that electricity. Data center operators sign PPAs (power purchase agreements) directly and pull forward power equipment orders to secure supply.
In fact, the data center share of GE Vernova's order book is rising fast, from about 10% in 2024 to a projected roughly 25% in 2026 on management's commentary. In Q1 2026, $4.0B of turbine orders were tied directly to data centers.
AI power demand is not an abstract forecast. It is already printing on GE Vernova's books in the physical form of generator orders.
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