Bottom Line
Samsung printing ₩57.2T quarterly operating profit is not a signal that the memory supercycle has ended - it is a signal that it has begun. Consensus average ₩339K points above the May 21 close of ₩292,750.
The memory supercycle peak is now confirmed in numbers. Consensus average is ₩339K. The market is looking higher.
Samsung printing ₩57.2T quarterly operating profit is not a signal that the memory supercycle has ended - it is a signal that it has begun. Consensus average ₩339K points above the May 21 close of ₩292,750.
April 29 official earnings - revenue ₩133.9T / operating profit ₩57.2T - confirmed the supercycle in numbers. Add the +58~63% QoQ Q2 DRAM contract price consensus, and the cycle is likely to retain strength next quarter.
Winners - Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron (the memory three); HBM packaging and back-end equipment suppliers. Pressured - AI server customers exposed to HBM scarcity, PC and smartphone OEMs exposed to surging commodity DDR5 prices.
Q2 DRAM contract negotiation outcome + HBM4's volume entry into NVIDIA Rubin + 2027 CapEx guidance from the memory three + additional hyperscaler LTAs. The cycle's end is determined not by price but by peak recognition - the moment consensus shifts from Buy to Peak is the sell signal.
Samsung's Q1 revenue was ₩133.9 trillion, operating profit ₩57.2 trillion. Both beat LSEG SmartEstimate consensus of ₩132.7T / ₩55.3T. Revenue grew 43% QoQ, operating profit 185% QoQ. Revenue YoY +69%, operating profit YoY +756%.
The real numbers are in the segments. Solutions (DS — the semiconductor division) posted revenue of ₩81.7 trillion and operating profit of ₩53.7 trillion. DS operating profit grew 48x year-over-year. Not 8x. 48x. The memory business alone accounted for ₩74.8 trillion of revenue — 91.6% of total DS revenue. The combined operating profit from the non-memory businesses (Foundry, System LSI, MX, SDC) was roughly ₩3.5 trillion, just 6.1% of total operating profit. This quarter Samsung was effectively a single memory company.
Operating margin landed around 43%. The 2018 supercycle peak was 23.6%. The simplest comparison of how thick this cycle's margin has gone. This quarter delivered roughly 1.8x the margin of the 2018 peak.
SK Hynix also posted a record Q1 operating profit in the same window. Per CNBC reporting, SK Hynix's Q1 number matched consensus and set a new high. The cycle is not one company's beat. The three memory players are drawing the same curve simultaneously.
Someone will ask: "isn't that the top?" A fair question. But peak vs. entrance is not determined by margin. It is determined by next quarter's contract price.
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This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Investment decisions should be made based on your own judgment and responsibility. The analysis and opinions contained herein are based on information available at the time of writing and are subject to change.