Bottom Line
The Iran-Israel all-out war effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, turning a geopolitical tail risk into a live shock disrupting 20% of global oil supply.
Week 1 Assessment — Oil Supply Disruption, KOSPI Circuit Breaker, and Global Market Contagion
The Iran-Israel all-out war effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, turning a geopolitical tail risk into a live shock disrupting 20% of global oil supply.
A U.S.-Israel joint strike (Operation Epic Fury) confirmed Khamenei's death on Feb 28; Iran's simultaneous retaliation across six countries closed Hormuz shipping lanes and triggered a KOSPI circuit breaker.
Winners — domestic and global defense stocks, non-Middle East E&P producers, refiners. Headwinds — shipping, airlines, petrochemicals, consumer discretionary, import-dependent manufacturers with heavy Middle East exposure.
Track weekly IEA crude inventory reports and VLCC freight rates (BDTI) to gauge whether Hormuz transit normalizes.
The U.S.-Israeli joint strikes targeted Iran's nuclear facilities and military strongholds. F-35 fighters and Tomahawk cruise missiles were deployed in combat, and President Trump urged the Iranian people to 'change the regime.'
Iran's Retaliation:
Investment Implications: Unlike previous Iran-Israel disputes, this time surrounding countries were directly struck, bringing the risk a full-scale Middle East war into reality. This is not simply 'heightened tensions' but a structural geopolitical premium that will be reflected in markets.
| Event | Actor | Target |
|---|---|---|
| Operation Epic Fury | United States | Iran nuclear facilities & military sites |
| Roaring Lion | Israel | Iran nuclear facilities & military sites |
| Retaliatory missile & drone strikes | Iran | Israeli homeland |
| Missile launches | Iran | UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia |
| Airspace closures | 6 countries | Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Israel, Bahrain, Qatar |
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This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Investment decisions should be made based on your own judgment and responsibility. The analysis and opinions contained herein are based on information available at the time of writing and are subject to change.