Bottom Line
The three memory makers' 12-month forward P/E of 4-7x is not undervaluation but a signal that the market has already priced in a 3-4x earnings rebound. Korea Customs export data confirmed that rebound before earnings did.
A forward P/E of 4-7x is not undervaluation but an earnings-rebound expectation. Customs confirmed, ahead of earnings, that the rebound is entirely price.
The three memory makers' 12-month forward P/E of 4-7x is not undervaluation but a signal that the market has already priced in a 3-4x earnings rebound. Korea Customs export data confirmed that rebound before earnings did.
Customs semiconductor exports +196.9% YoY; China and Vietnam memory +341.7% (weight fell, so the entire increase is price). The March flash of +149.9% led Micron's FQ3 by 23 days, and DRAM contract prices hit a record +90-95% in 1Q26.
Beneficiaries of the price-margin cycle — Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Micron. Pressure factor — if Japanese semiconductor equipment exports later turn positive and reignite capacity additions, price, margin, and EPS fall together.
Customs semiconductor export value (whether price persists) and Japan-origin semiconductor equipment exports (whether capacity additions ignite). If the latter turns positive, the denominator of forward P/E wobbles and the low-multiple logic reverses.
Forward P/E is a simple division. Current divided by expected EPS over the next 12 . A low multiple means one of two things. The price is cheap, or expected earnings are large. For the three makers, it is the latter.
Placed next to the trailing multiple, it becomes clear. Samsung's trailing P/E is 20.4x while its P/E is 4.5x. SK Hynix is 17.4x versus 4.7x, Micron 22.2x versus 6.8x. There is only one reason the trailing and forward multiples diverge this much: the market sees the denominator — earnings — surging ahead.
Converted into a rebound ratio, the size becomes tangible. Dividing forward expected EPS by the latest reported EPS gives Samsung 4.5x, SK Hynix 3.7x, Micron 3.4x. The market has bet that these companies' earnings will treble or quadruple within a year.
What matters is that this number was not conjured from thin air. The forward P/E derived from brokerage consensus (SK Securities and Bloomberg) and the value derived from yfinance's independent consensus (Samsung 3.9x, Hynix 4.1x, Micron 6.5x) nearly coincide. Two different sources reach the same conclusion. The numbers are real.
The acceleration is already showing up in reported results. Samsung's quarterly diluted EPS jumped from 737 won to 2,908 won and then 7,056 won. A single quarter — Q1 2026 — exceeded the full-year 2025 EPS of 6,639 won. SK Hynix went from 9,580 won to 21,850 won to 56,670 won. Micron climbed each quarter from $1.68 to $4.6 to $12.07 to $24.67.
The gap between the forward 4.5x and the trailing 20.4x is not an illusion. It is the market's conviction that the denominator is growing, and reported EPS is already climbing that staircase.
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This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Investment decisions should be made based on your own judgment and responsibility. The analysis and opinions contained herein are based on information available at the time of writing and are subject to change.