Bottom Line
In week 4 of the Hormuz blockade, 40% of Asian naphtha supply has been cut — triggering cascading shutdowns in Korea and China — leaving a $3.8 trillion industry facing a 250–275 day wait for normalization.
Hormuz Blockade Week 4: 40% of Asian Naphtha Disrupted, 250–275 Day Normalization Scenario
In week 4 of the Hormuz blockade, 40% of Asian naphtha supply has been cut — triggering cascading shutdowns in Korea and China — leaving a $3.8 trillion industry facing a 250–275 day wait for normalization.
Hormuz de-facto closure in week 4 → 40% Asian naphtha disruption → Korea's Yeochun NCC force majeure → LG Chem and Lotte Chemical cascading shutdowns — the domino has already started falling.
Beneficiaries — US ethane-based NGL chemical companies (shale-gas feedstock, naphtha-independent), Middle East LPG-based producers. Headwinds — naphtha-dependent Korean/Chinese/Japanese NCCs (ethylene crackers), polymer customers in packaging and automotive parts manufacturing.
Weekly Asian naphtha spot prices and ethylene spreads — without a blockade resolution signal, the 250–275 day normalization scenario remains the baseline.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Asian naphtha Middle East dependency | 60–70% (via Hormuz) | Coface, ICIS |
| Korea naphtha import Middle East share | ~75% / import dependency 60%+ (27M t/yr) | ICIS, KITA |
| Global petrochemical capacity affected | Up to 20% | Dow CEO |
| Asian naphtha supply disruption | ~40% | LyondellBasell CEO |
| Blocked seaborne naphtha volume | Up to 1.2M bpd / 24% of global seaborne naphtha | Drewry |
| Gulf petrochemical value at risk | $733 billion (22% of global) | Altana |
| Downstream finished goods impact | $3.8 trillion | Altana/CNBC |
| Time to normalization | 250–275 days (8–9 months) | Dow CEO |
| Post-reopening physical gap | arrival 2 weeks + cracker restart 2 weeks = minimum 1 month | ICIS |
| Product | Change | Period | Price Level | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naphtha (barrel) | +81% | 2 weeks | $68.87→$124.53/bbl | KNOC |
| Naphtha (ton) | +74% | 2 weeks | $776→$1,000+/t | SunSirs |
| (NE Asia CFR) | +80% | 3 weeks | $1,280/t | SunSirs |
| Acrylic acid | +106% | ~4 weeks | - | GS/SunSirs |
| Butadiene | +82% | ~4 weeks | - | GS/SunSirs |
| Solvents (MEK/Acetone/IPA) | +64% | ~4 weeks | - | GS/SunSirs |
| MTBE | +55% | ~4 weeks | - | GS/SunSirs |
| Propylene oxide | +50% | ~4 weeks | $1.18/kg | GS/SunSirs |
| Toluene/Styrene | +44% | ~4 weeks | - | GS/SunSirs |
| Polymers average | +41–42% | ~4 weeks | - | PolymerUpdate |
| PP (Polypropylene) | +9% | Initial | - | ChemAnalyst |
| PE/BPA/Epoxy/Benzene/MDI | +26–39% | ~4 weeks | - | GS/SunSirs |
| Region | Utilization (March) | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Korea | ~65% | -15%p | LG Chem Yeosu 54%, YNCC 60–66%, Lotte full halt |
| NE Asia avg. | ~70% | -10%p | ChemAnalyst est. |
| Japan | 75.7% | Lowest since Jun 2025 | Ethylene -23% MoM (334,200t, all-time low). 6 of 12 plants cut |
| China | 82.4% | -6.2%p | Naphtha crackers only. CTO operating normally |
| Taiwan | ~70% | Further cuts under review | Formosa FM. 4/1 supply contract default |
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