Bottom Line
The first week of the Iran war shocked global markets with the Hormuz Strait blockade, WTI surging toward $100, and KOSPI triggering its circuit breaker with a historic -12.06% plunge.
Reading depth
- Geopolitics: Iran War Timeline and Market ImpactThe 2/28 Iran strikes and Khamenei's assassination started the war, putting Hormuz under de facto blockade threat. Global equities fell broadly as only energy and defense benefited.Jump to section
- Energy: WTI Historic Weekly SurgeWTI rose 35.6% in a week, its largest gain since futures began in 1983. Oil settling at $90 sustains energy margins, but it is time to pair positions with put hedges.Jump to section
- Defense: The Beginning of a Structural RallyDefense began a structural rally. Hanwha Aerospace +19.83% in a day and LIG Nex1 limit-up made Korean defense top global performers, with the budget-expansion cycle still early.Jump to section
- Semiconductors & AI: Fundamentals vs Macro UncertaintyDespite the $60B AMD-Meta deal, chips weakened on macro uncertainty. The NFP shock and inflation overwhelmed fundamental improvement, failing to turn sentiment.Jump to section
- Crypto: Direct Hit from Risk-Off SentimentIf the 3/11 CPI confirms inflation reignition, additional downward pressure is possible.Jump to section
- Macro: NFP Shock and Stagflation FearsFebruary NFP at -92K was the worst in four months. Weak jobs plus energy inflation raised the stagflation scenario, and bonds' safe-haven role broke down.Jump to section
- Next Week OutlookNext week's biggest event is the 3/11 CPI, with whether the WTI surge hits the headline as the crux. An upside print means retreating cut hopes and more equity declines.Jump to section