Bottom Line
CPI at 2.4% briefly eased inflation concerns, but WTI surging to $98.71 with $100 in sight kept stagflation fears dominating the week.
Reading depth
- Macro: CPI Relief, But the Real Inflation Is Yet to ComeFebruary CPI at 2.4% met expectations, but that is pre-war data. With the energy surge set to hit March CPI, the real inflation has not yet arrived.Jump to section
- Oil: Toward $100 — The Worst Case MaterializingMaintain energy overweight, but prepare for sharp pullback risk in case of a diplomatic breakthrough.Jump to section
- Equities: S&P 500 2026 Low, KOSPI Volatility PersistsAs the war entered week three, expanding defense spending began to be seen as structural, not temporary. NATO's digital-defense mandate and Korean exports are the mid-term drivers.Jump to section
- Crypto: BTC $72K Rebound, Digital Gold Narrative StrengthensSemiconductor fundamentals are at their strongest, but energy inflation and stagflation fears pressure multiples. If oil holds $100, the March CPI surprise risk comes to the fore.Jump to section
- Sector Rotation: Defense & Energy Win, Tech & Consumer LoseHowever, altcoins continue to lag in the risk-off environment.Jump to section
- Next Week Outlook: GTC 2026, FOMC, and Micron EarningsKOSDAQ biotech offers relative appeal as a growth sector uncorrelated with oil prices.Jump to section
- Next Week OutlookNext week centers on the 3/18-19 FOMC; a hold is expected but whether Powell mentions stagflation is the crux. Hold-plus-hawkish means more declines, hold-plus-dovish a bounce.Jump to section