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Weekly Market Review: April Week 1

Q1 Worst Close → Sidecar Surge → Trump 'Stone Age' Shock — A Week of Historic Volatility

HHaelangdal·Founder AnalystApril 5, 202616 min readWeekly Review
Bottom Line

Q1 2026 closed with S&P -4.6%, the worst quarter since 2022.

Reading depth
  1. 01Q1 2026 Wrap-Up: Worst Quarter Since 2022Q1 2026 was the worst quarter since 2022 with the S&P -4.6%. Iran, TurboQuant, and the ECB dominated, and the final-day rebound on Trump's ultimatum opened April's volatility.Jump to section
  2. 02April 1 Sidecar Event: A Historic DayKOSPI surged +8.44%, triggering the sidecar with a record 4.03T won of institutional buying. The spike was a war-end bet, but that hope shattered the next day.Jump to section
  3. 03Trump's 'Stone Age' Speech and Market ShockTrump's 'Stone Age' speech evaporated over half the prior day's +8.44% gain in a session. The market began applying a 'rhetoric discount' to his extreme language.Jump to section
  4. 04Muscat Protocol and Diplomatic BreakthroughThe Muscat Protocol is closer to a negotiating table than a roadmap to war's end. But as the first official channel since the war began, it helped shrink the war premium.Jump to section
  5. 05Crypto: $67K Consolidation Amid Extreme FearCrypto joined the risk-off flow as BTC consolidated near $67K. Sideways action amid extreme fear (Fear & Greed 14) historically aligns with a bottoming pattern.Jump to section
  6. 06Next Week Outlook & Market ImplicationsThe end of the S&P's five-week decline is positive, but the 4/6 energy-strike moratorium expiry decides next week. Amid daily swings, volatility management comes first.Jump to section
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Executive Summary

This report is Haelangdal's weekly market review as of April 5, 2026. The first week of April (3/31–4/4) compressed historic volatility into a single week: Q1's worst close, sidecar-triggered surge, Trump's 'Stone Age' shock, and the Muscat Protocol.

Key Weekly Events:

DateEventMarket Response
3/31 (Mon)Q1 close + Trump 48-hour ultimatumS&P +2.91% (best daily gain since May), Dow +1,100pt
4/1 (Tue)KOSPI +8.44%, sidecar activatedInstitutional net buying KRW 4.03T (all-time record), Samsung +13.4%
4/2 (Wed)Trump 'Stone Age' primetime addressKOSPI 5,524→5,234 (-4.47%), WTI +11%
4/3 (Thu)Muscat Protocol signed + NFP 178KKOSPI +2.7%, S&P first winning week in 5
Date
3/31 (Mon)
Event
Q1 close + Trump 48-hour ultimatum
Market Response
S&P +2.91% (best daily gain since May), Dow +1,100pt
Date
4/1 (Tue)
Event
KOSPI +8.44%, sidecar activated
Market Response
Institutional net buying KRW 4.03T (all-time record), Samsung +13.4%
Date
4/2 (Wed)
Event
Trump 'Stone Age' primetime address
Market Response
KOSPI 5,524→5,234 (-4.47%), WTI +11%
Date
4/3 (Thu)
Event
Muscat Protocol signed + NFP 178K
Market Response
KOSPI +2.7%, S&P first winning week in 5

Conclusion: The first official diplomatic breakthrough since the Iran war began helped S&P snap its 5-week losing streak. However, uncertainty from Trump's 'Stone Age' rhetoric persists, and ISM PMI at 48.2 (2nd straight contraction) warns of economic slowdown.Selective positioning amid extreme volatility is essential.

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Comments

This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Investment decisions should be made based on your own judgment and responsibility. The analysis and opinions contained herein are based on information available at the time of writing and are subject to change.

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