A Volatile Week Shaped by Iran Missiles and a 3-Year-High CPI — From a KOSPI Circuit Breaker (-8.29%) to an +8% Rebound, with Ceasefire Hopes Turning the Weekend
A volatile week where geopolitical fear (Iran missiles) and a 3-year-high CPI (+4.2%) threw the market up and down, before Trump's 'deal essentially agreed' turned the weekend toward risk appetite. KOSPI rode a roller coaster from a circuit breaker (-8.29%) to an +8.18% rebound. Next week, the 6/16-17 FOMC decides the rate path after the CPI beat, and whether the Iran deal is actually signed decides whether risk appetite holds.
6/8 Iran-Israel missile exchange + lingering US chip-plunge aftershock -> KOSPI circuit breaker -8.29% (7,484) -> 6/9 Jensen Huang 'buy the dip' -> KOSPI +8.18% (8,097) -> 6/10 US May CPI +4.2% (3-year high) -> rate fear, Dow -953 -> 6/11 Trump cancels Iran strike, 'deal essentially agreed' -> Nasdaq +2.54%, oil $86 -> 6/12 deal imminent, KOSPI +4.63%, foreigners net buy 2.7T won, SpaceX IPO +19% on day one.
Recovery leaders — SK Hynix, Samsung (the 6/9 memory-duo surge), KOSPI (foreigners returning). Hit by volatility — margin leverage (6/10 forced selling at a 3-year high), oil (-4% on Hormuz reopening hopes). New — SpaceX (SPCX) record IPO debut. Monitoring — the 6/16-17 FOMC dot plot (after CPI +4.2%), an actual Iran deal signing, the Treasury yield path, and whether KOSPI holds 8,100.
June Week 2 opened with a plunge. KOSPI fell -8.29% (7,484), triggering a circuit .
Two things had piled up over the weekend. One was the aftershock of the prior Friday's (6/5) US chip plunge. The other was a new geopolitical shock — the Iran-Israel missile exchange. When the two overlapped, foreigners dumped Korean equities. Samsung -10% and SK Hynix -7% — the memory duo was the center of the drop.
The same day, the US actually rebounded — Micron rose +10%. As the session after the 6/5 plunge, US chips drew bargain buying. In the end, the 6/8 plunge was not a global synchronized selloff but an isolated Korean drop exposed to a geopolitical shock. Within the same memory cycle, the US bought while Korea sold — an asymmetric day.
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