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Weekly Market Review: Week 25 (June Week 3)

The Week KOSPI Crossed 9,000 for the First Time — an HBM4E-Led Memory Rally, Warsh's Hawkish FOMC, an Intel-Apple Deal, and a Korea-Only Record High on a Juneteenth Holiday

HHaelangdal·Founder AnalystJune 20, 202614 min readWeekly Review
Bottom Line

A record-setting week in which KOSPI crossed 9,000 for the first time ever. An HBM4E-led memory rally drove a record close of 8,864 on 6/17 and the first-ever 9,000 (9,063) on 6/18, and on 6/19 set a fresh intraday record of 9,385. In the US, Warsh's first FOMC landed hawkish (dot plot 3.8%, 9 hikers), sending stocks down once before they rebounded on chip leadership from the Intel-Apple deal and Micron target raises. Next week, the questions are whether memory concentration is validated by Micron's 6/24 earnings, and where the hawkish dot plot pulls the rate path.

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Reader's Brief — 30-second TL;DR

Intermediate
Why Now

6/15 Micron record-high then double-top, chip profit-taking -> 6/17 Warsh's first FOMC hawkish (dot plot median 3.8%, 9 of 18 hiking), S&P -1.21%, Nasdaq -1.34% -> same day KOSPI sets a record close of 8,864 before the decision -> 6/18 SK Hynix +6.5%, Samsung +4.6%, KOSPI +2.25% to a first-ever 9,000 (9,063), Intel about +10% on the Apple deal, Micron +8%, US stocks rebound -> 6/19 US closed for Juneteenth, KOSPI intraday record 9,385 then 9,052 (-0.13%).

Winners ?? Losers

Week's leaders — SK Hynix, Samsung (12-layer HBM4E samples, the memory-duo rally), KOSPI (first 9,000). US rebound leaders — Intel (Apple foundry deal, about +10%), Micron (target raises, +8%). Hit — every US sector right after the hawkish FOMC (6/17), the won (dollar strength, ~1,530). Monitoring — Micron's 6/24 earnings, memory concentration, the rate path after a hawkish dot plot, and whether KOSPI holds 9,000.

Watch For

Reading depth
  1. 016/15-6/16 — Micron Double Top, Chips-to-Financials Rotation (FOMC Wait)The first half began questioning the rally's fuel. A Micron double top rotated money from chips to financials as the market awaited the FOMC.Jump to section
  2. 02Wed 6/17 — Warsh's First FOMC Hawkish, US Stocks Down ~1% (KOSPI a Record 8,864 Before the Decision)6/17 was an asymmetric day in which the US absorbed the same event (a hawkish FOMC) immediately, while Korea took it on with a lag.Jump to section
  3. 03Thu 6/18 — KOSPI Crosses 9,000 for the First Time, Intel-Apple Deal and Micron Rebound (US Recovers)6/18 was the day fundamentals (HBM4E) beat macro (a hawkish FOMC) — memory pulled both the Korean and US markets up at once.Jump to section
  4. 04Fri 6/19 — US Closed for Juneteenth, KOSPI Intraday Record 9,385 Then Fades to 9,052On 6/19, with the US closed, Korea set a record then was knocked back by profit-taking, compressing the concentrated tape's volatility.Jump to section
  5. 05Week in Review — Fundamentals vs Macro, an Anatomy of a Recordthe fundamental of HBM4E demand overpowered the macro of a hawkish FOMC, and that force lifted KOSPI above 9,000 for the first time ever.Jump to section
  6. 06The Week Ahead — Micron's 6/24 Earnings, Memory Concentration, Hawkish-Dot-Plot FalloutNext week, Micron's 6/24 earnings test the memory concentration while Warsh's hawkish dot plot fights over the rate path.Jump to section

6/15-6/16 — Micron Double Top, Chips-to-Financials Rotation (FOMC Wait)

The week opened with profit-taking. Micron traced a double top near its record high, and selling poured into chips.

A breather after the record

Micron set an intraday record on 6/15 and then turned lower. It was a natural round of profit-taking after a sharp run. The money pulled from chips rotated into financials and communication services. Caution ahead of new chair briefly trimmed risk exposure.

Concentration came under question

The same day, SpaceX surged on news it would acquire Cursor for about $60 billion, overtaking Amazon by market cap. It was a scene that re-asked how far the crowding into AI names is justified. With the combined market cap of Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron reaching about $3.5 trillion, the debate over the legitimacy of memory valuations grew louder. The first half was the stretch where the market began to question the fuel of the rally — the index held, but it was waiting on how the FOMC would come out.

Takeaway

The first half began questioning the rally's fuel. A Micron double top rotated money from chips to financials as the market awaited the FOMC.

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This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Investment decisions should be made based on your own judgment and responsibility. The analysis and opinions contained herein are based on information available at the time of writing and are subject to change.

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