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Weekly Market Review: Week 27 (July Week 1)

The Week KOSPI Crashed -7.89% in a Day and Rebounded +5.76% the Next — the Meta Cloud Shock, a 17-Year High in USDKRW at 1,555.8, a Payrolls Shock, and a Buy Sidecar

HHaelangdal·Founder AnalystJuly 5, 202614 min readWeekly Review
Bottom Line

A week in which the volatility of a concentrated AI-chip tape exploded. Meta's cloud entry spread into AI-compute-oversupply fear, crashing KOSPI -7.89% on 7/2 (-18.5% from the 6/18 peak) while USDKRW hit a 17-year high of 1,555.8. But both the trigger and the antidote were external — when the payrolls shock (+57K) broke the dollar overnight, KOSPI rebounded +5.76% on 7/3 and the won fell 30.2. Next week hinges on SK Hynix's 7/10 Nasdaq listing, whether 8,000 holds, and a reality check on the AI oversupply debate.

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Reader's Brief — 30-second TL;DR

Intermediate
Why Now

6/29 Korea's 800-trillion-won memory-fab megaproject, Dow's first 52,000 -> 6/30 S&P closes its best quarter (+16.3%) while foreigners sell 3.8 trillion won -> 7/1 chip-duo profit-taking, KOSPI -2.04%, US chip index -4.7%, Warsh hawkish at Sintra -> 7/2 Meta cloud shock, KOSPI -7.89% (Samsung -9.1%, SK Hynix -14.6%), USDKRW 1,555.8, payrolls shock (+57K) at night -> 7/3 institutions buy 4.5 trillion won, buy sidecar, +5.76% rebound, won -30.2, US closed.

Winners ?? Losers

Week's losers — Samsung and SK Hynix (led the 7/2 crash), the won (1,555.8, a 17-year low), KOSPI (touched -18.5% from the peak). Rebound leaders — institutions (4.46 trillion won net buying), Samsung +8.2%, SK Hynix +10.9% (7/3). US winners — the Dow (record 52,900) and old-economy names riding cut hopes. Monitoring — SK Hynix's 7/10 Nasdaq ADR listing, whether foreign Sell Korea stops, leveraged-product flows, and the 1,500-won range.

Watch For

Reading depth
  1. 016/29-6/30 — An 800-Trillion-Won Megaproject, America's Best Quarter (Calm Before the Storm)The first half was a string of records, but 3.8 trillion won of foreign selling and the 1,550 defense line were already flashing warnings.Jump to section
  2. 02Wed 7/1 — Chip-Duo Profit-Taking, -2%; Warsh Hawkish at Sintra (US Chip Index -4.7%)7/1 was the day chip profit-taking and a hawkish Fed overlapped, stacking dry kindling for the next day's crash.Jump to section
  3. 03Thu 7/2 — KOSPI Crashes -7.89%, the Meta Cloud Shock and a 17-Year Currency High (a Payrolls Shock at Night)7/2 was the day Meta pulled the trigger and flows widened the amplitude — and that night, the payrolls shock pulled the rebound's trigger too.Jump to section
  4. 04Fri 7/3 — A Buy-Sidecar +5.76% Rebound, the Won Down 30.2 (US Closed for Independence Day)7/3 was the day stocks and the currency reversed as one when the dollar broke — the switch for won weakness is not in Seoul.Jump to section
  5. 05Week in Review — an Anatomy of Crash and Rebound: Trigger, Amplifier, AntidoteThe depth of this correction measured the size of the crowding, not damage to the AI thesis, and the switch for the reversal was in Washington.Jump to section
  6. 06The Week Ahead — SK Hynix's Nasdaq Listing on 7/10 (D-5), the Battle for 8,000, the AI Oversupply DebateNext week, SK Hynix's 7/10 Nasdaq listing tests the post-crash flow landscape, and whether 8,000 holds decides the tape.Jump to section

6/29-6/30 — An 800-Trillion-Won Megaproject, America's Best Quarter (Calm Before the Storm)

The week opened on good news. The Korean government and the US market set records side by side.

800 trillion won of memory fabs — the government raises the stakes

On 6/29, the government announced three megaprojects: doubling semiconductor capacity in the capital region and building four memory fabs worth 800 trillion won in the southwest. It was a blueprint that enlarges the long-term semiconductor board. KOSPI closed slightly lower at 8,394.65 (-0.20%), but in the US the semiconductor ETF rose 3% and the Dow crossed 52,000 for the first time ever, with the Nasdaq surging +2.07%. The decision to retain Fed governor Cook and easing Middle East tensions also supported risk appetite.

The crack beneath the best quarter

On 6/30, KOSPI recovered to 8,476.48 (+0.97%) on Samsung's +3.4% bounce. In the US, the S&P 500 closed its best quarter since 2020 at +16.3%. But a crack was growing beneath the numbers. Foreigners net sold 3.8 trillion won of KOSPI that day, with institutions absorbing the supply. The won stood at 1,548.6 — a level where authorities were presumed to be defending 1,550. Amid quarter-end de-grossing, Bitcoin gave up $60,000 for the first time since 2024. The index was calm, but foreign selling and the currency were already flashing warnings.

Takeaway

The first half was a string of records, but 3.8 trillion won of foreign selling and the 1,550 defense line were already flashing warnings.

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This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Investment decisions should be made based on your own judgment and responsibility. The analysis and opinions contained herein are based on information available at the time of writing and are subject to change.

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