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Weekly Market Review: Week 28 (July Week 2)

The Week Samsung Posted Record Earnings and Still Crashed -7% — a Peak-Out-Fear Circuit Breaker, a Two-Day -10% Plunge and a Two-Day Rebound, and SK Hynix's $26.5 Billion Nasdaq IPO, the Largest Ever by a Foreign Company

HHaelangdal·Founder AnalystJuly 12, 202615 min readWeekly Review
Bottom Line

The week record earnings became the trigger for a crash. Samsung's Q2 preliminary results (revenue 171T, operating profit 89.4T, both records) were read as peak-out fear, and KOSPI broke -10% over two days (7/7 -4.91% with a circuit breaker, 7/8 -5.35%) — but the decline was led by institutions, and foreigners turned net buyers after 13 sessions of Sell Korea. After a two-day rebound, SK Hynix debuted on the Nasdaq on 7/10 with the largest-ever $26.5 billion IPO by a foreign company and printed a first-day +13% — a week in which Seoul's fear and New York's demand priced the same asset in opposite directions. Next week hinges on flows after the 7/13 ADR regular-ticker conversion, the first verdict of the peak-out debate from late-July final results, and reclaiming 8,000.

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Reader's Brief — 30-second TL;DR

Intermediate
Why Now

7/6 US June payrolls shock (57K) revives cut hopes (Nasdaq +1.1%), KOSPI 8,051 waits for Samsung prelim -> 7/7 Samsung prelim record (171T, 89.4T) yet -7% sell-the-news, KOSPI -4.91% (7,656) circuit breaker and sell sidecar, foreigners net sell 2.9T (13 straight sessions) -> 7/8 Black Wednesday -5.35% (7,247), KOSDAQ breaks 800 (785), decline led by institutions, foreigners turn buyers, Hormuz tension WTI +6% -> 7/9 480-point roller coaster (7,543-7,063) ends +0.62% (7,292), SK Hynix up 5%+ on 7x ADR oversubscription -> 7/10 +2.52% (7,476) second-day rebound, institutions net buy 1T, KOSDAQ +5.47%, SK Hynix Nasdaq debut $26.5B record, first day +13% ($168.01), domestic shares -0.27% pullback.

Winners ?? Losers

Week's losers — Samsung (-7% on record earnings, two straight days of crashing), SK Hynix domestic shares (-5.7% on 7/8, -0.27% pullback even on listing day), KOSDAQ (breaks 800), retail (about 2T dumped on 7/9). Proved right — SK Hynix ADR (7x oversubscribed, first day +13%, largest foreign IPO ever), foreigners (turned net buyers on the second day of the crash), the won (1,530 -> 1,501 even in a crash). Monitoring — 7/13 ADR regular-ticker conversion, the ADR-ordinary price gap, Samsung final results (late July), whether foreign net buying persists, the fight for 8,000.

Watch For

Reading depth
  1. 01Mon 7/6 — Cut Hopes Revived by a Jobs Shock, Waiting for Samsung's Prelim (Calm Before the Storm)7/6 was the US on cut hopes while Korea waited — Samsung's preliminary results held the answer to whether 8,000 would stick.Jump to section
  2. 02Tue 7/7 — The Day of Record Earnings Became the Day of a Circuit Breaker (KOSPI -4.91%)7/7 was the day record earnings were read as peak-out fear — the market priced the direction, not the level.Jump to section
  3. 03Wed 7/8 — 'Black Wednesday,' a Second Day at -5.35%, but the Sellers ChangedThe interior of Black Wednesday was a handoff of flows — institutions made the decline, and foreigners turned buyers after 13 sessions.Jump to section
  4. 04Thu 7/9 — A 480-Point Intraday Roller Coaster Ends in a Rebound (+0.62%), ADR Offering 7x Oversubscribed7/9 rebounded on foreign and institutional net buying after a 7,063 intraday bottom — the pretext was measured demand: 7x ADR oversubscription.Jump to section
  5. 05Fri 7/10 — A Second-Day Rebound +2.52%, and SK Hynix's Nasdaq IPO, the Largest Ever by a Foreign Company7/10 overlapped KOSPI's second-day rebound with SK Hynix's record Nasdaq IPO — the same stock split into +13% in New York and -0.27% in Seoul.Jump to section
  6. 06Week in Comparison — Anatomy of the Crash and Rebound, Again Trigger, Amplifier, AntidoteW28 was a correction whose trigger (record earnings), amplifier (institutional and retail selling), and antidote (New York's 7x oversubscription) all came from the opposite direction of W27 — Seoul's fear and New York's demand collided head-on.Jump to section
  7. 07Next Week's Outlook — The 7/13 ADR Regular-Ticker Conversion, the Road to Samsung's Final Results, the Fight for 8,000Next week, the 7/13 ADR regular trading tests the durability of New York's demand, and the road to late-July final results decides the direction of the peak-out debate.Jump to section

Mon 7/6 — Cut Hopes Revived by a Jobs Shock, Waiting for Samsung's Prelim (Calm Before the Storm)

The week opened in wait-and-see mode. As KOSPI slipped -0.46% to 8,051.33, market's entire attention was fixed on the next morning.

The US on cut hopes, Korea on standby

A June US nonfarm payrolls shock of 57,000 — half of expectations — revived rate-cut hopes, sending the Nasdaq up 1.1% and the S&P 500 up 0.7%. Tech led the tape. KOSPI, fresh off last week's -7.89% crash and +5.76% rebound in succession, caught its breath above 8,000. The next catalyst to move the index was clear — Samsung's Q2 preliminary results on the morning of 7/7. Those two numbers held the answer to whether 8,000 would stick.

Two macro footnotes

The won closed at 1,530.3 in Seoul's regular session on the first day of Korea's 24-hour FX trading. Oil eased, with WTI slipping to $68.55 on an OPEC output-hike decision. 7/6 was the calm before the storm — the whole market stood still, waiting for Samsung's two numbers the next morning.

Takeaway

7/6 was the US on cut hopes while Korea waited — Samsung's preliminary results held the answer to whether 8,000 would stick.

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This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Investment decisions should be made based on your own judgment and responsibility. The analysis and opinions contained herein are based on information available at the time of writing and are subject to change.

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