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Weekly Market Review: Week 30 (July Week 4)

A Whipsaw Week Where a Capex Undid What a Cloud Lifted - a -4.46% Gap-Down That Settled the US Chip Bear Market, a Reclaim of 7,000 Pushed Up by Customs Semiconductor Exports of $22.1B (+180%) and Alphabet's Cloud +82%, and a -5.72% Friday That Handed the Rebound Back Whole on the $195-205B Capex Raise and Buyback Halt

HHaelangdal·Founder AnalystJuly 25, 202615 min readWeekly Review
Bottom Line

A whipsaw week of crashes and surges every other day amid AI-chip deleveraging. KOSPI settled the US semiconductor bear-market entry with a -4.46% (6,516.27) gap-down on Monday, then rebounded +3.56% (6,747.95) on Tuesday on customs semiconductor exports of $22.1 billion (+180.6%). After +0.74% on Wednesday it jumped +4.40% (7,096.89) on Thursday to reclaim 7,000, reading Alphabet's Cloud +82% as bullish. But the same print's capex guidance raise to $195-205 billion and buyback halt hit New York on 7/23, and on Friday KOSPI plunged -5.72% (6,690.62), handing back the entire rebound. The week lost about -1.9% yet swung 6,516-7,096, a 9% range. The demand strength of those who sell the pickaxe (memory) and the capex burden of those who pay for it (the hyperscalers) took turns winning the upside and the downside within a single week.

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Reader's Brief — 30-second TL;DR

Intermediate
Why Now

7/17 Philadelphia Semiconductor Index enters a bear market at -20.2% from its peak -> 7/20 Seoul gap-down -4.46% (6,516.27), sidecars on both markets, KOSDAQ -5.33% (749.64), Samsung a new low ~31% below its June peak, US-Iran reignition sending Brent above $90 -> 7/21 customs July 1-20 exports at a record $54.9 billion (+52.3%), semiconductors $22.1 billion (+180.6%, 40.3% of the total): +3.56% (6,747.95), foreigners +614.4 billion won, institutions +1,648.0 billion won -> 7/22 +0.74% (6,797.70), and that night Alphabet Q2: revenue $119.8 billion (+24%), Cloud $24.77 billion (+82%), GAAP EPS $9.11 (inflated by about $99 billion of unrealized equity-stake gains), FY26 capex guidance raised to $195-205 billion, buybacks $13.2 billion -> $0 -> 7/23 KOSPI +4.40% (7,096.89) reclaims 7,000 (a bullish Cloud read), but that same session New York took the capex headwind: Nasdaq -2.15%, VIX 18.70 (+12.4%) -> 7/24 KOSPI -5.72% (6,690.62), SK Hynix and Samsung plunging, US SanDisk -11% -> the week about -1.9%.

Winners ?? Losers

What pushed the week up - customs semiconductor exports ($22.1 billion, +180.6%), Google Cloud (+82% reacceleration), foreigners (leading the 7/21 rebound), the 7/23 reclaim of 7,000. What pulled it back - Alphabet's capex raise and buyback halt (7/23 Nasdaq -2.15%, VIX +12.4%), the 7/24 KOSPI -5.72%, SK Hynix and Samsung plunging, US SanDisk -11%, a first -22% crack in NAND contract prices. Monitoring - SK Hynix earnings on 7/29, the 30-million-won deposit taking effect on 8/5, whether 7,000 is reclaimed, NAND contract prices, the won in the 1,470s.

Watch For

Reading depth
  1. 01Mon 7/20 - Gap-Down -4.46%, a Belated Settlement of the US Chip Bear Market7/20's -4.46% gap-down settled, in one shot, the US chip bear-market entry that occurred during the Constitution Day closure - and KOSDAQ surrendered the 750 line.Jump to section
  2. 02Tue 7/21 - Customs Semiconductor Exports $22.1B (+180%), an Export-Made V-Shaped Rebound +3.56%7/21's +3.56% rebound was an export-driven retracement made by customs semiconductor exports of $22.1 billion (+180.6%) - foreigners and institutions bought together.Jump to section
  3. 03Wed 7/22 - Thu 7/23 - The Rebound Widens, a Reclaim of 7,000 (+4.40%)After +0.74% on 7/22, 7/23 jumped +4.40% (7,096.89) to reclaim 7,000 - a bullish read of Alphabet's Cloud +82% made the high, but the same print's capex hit New York that night.Jump to section
  4. 04Alphabet's Q2 Dual Message - Cloud +82% vs Capex $195-205B and a Buyback HaltAlphabet's Q2 pairs a Cloud +82% reacceleration with a capex raise to $195-205 billion and a buyback halt - Seoul reflected the bullish face on Thursday and the bearish face on Friday, across two days.Jump to section
  5. 05Fri 7/24 - The Retracement Collapses -5.72%, the Week's Rebound Handed Back Whole7/24's -5.72% (6,690.62) plunge combined Alphabet's capex headwind with a SanDisk -11% US chip selloff - the Tuesday-through-Thursday rebound vanished in one day.Jump to section
  6. 06Week in Comparison - Anatomy of the Whipsaw, a Capex That Undid What a Cloud LiftedW30 was a whipsaw week where a capex undid what a Cloud lifted - a 9% intraday range hidden inside a -1.9% week revealed the phase's instability, and the capex debate and the 8/5 curb remained next week's homework.Jump to section
  7. 07Next Week's Outlook - SK Hynix Earnings on 7/29, the 8/5 Curb, the Fight for 7,000Next week, SK Hynix earnings on 7/29 decide whether numbers fill in the face of demand, while the asymmetric window before the 8/5 curb and the capex debate decide whether the correction opens its next leg.Jump to section

Mon 7/20 - Gap-Down -4.46%, a Belated Settlement of the US Chip Bear Market

The bill for the day Seoul left empty last week arrived all at once on Monday morning. KOSPI closed down 303.76 points at 6,516.27, a -4.46% plunge.

Three days of New York in one sitting

Seoul rested for Constitution Day on 7/17, and during that time the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index entered a bear market at -20.2% from its June 22 peak. Monday's open was where a market that had failed to that decline digested three days of New York in one sitting. The 'Monday gap' that the W29 review had flagged as a watchpoint became reality exactly as described. A sell-side sidecar fired on both markets, and KOSDAQ fell -5.33% to 749.64, surrendering the 750 line.

Samsung's new low, and oil

Samsung printed a fresh low about 31% below its June peak. The index's drawdown exceeded 28% from its June peak - the entire cohort of KOSPI large caps, tied to the same narrative as US memory stocks, was pushed into bear-market territory together. On top of this, a weekend clash between the US and Iran pushed Brent above $90. Geopolitics and semiconductor weakness overlapped, amplifying the risk-off.

7/20 was not a day the narrative newly worsened, but a day that settled, in one shot, the bad news that had piled up while the market rested - the size of the gap was the size of the decline it had failed to price.

Takeaway

7/20's -4.46% gap-down settled, in one shot, the US chip bear-market entry that occurred during the Constitution Day closure - and KOSDAQ surrendered the 750 line.

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This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Investment decisions should be made based on your own judgment and responsibility. The analysis and opinions contained herein are based on information available at the time of writing and are subject to change.

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