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Weekly Market Review: Week 35 (August Week 4)

Samsung Electronics fell 8.70% on the first session after its shareholder-return resolution was disclosed following the previous Friday's close, taking KOSPI down 3.12%; the index then rose three sessions in a row until its August 27 close sat 0.58 points from the prior Friday's, before foreign net selling of 1.7564 trillion won ahead of the Jackson Hole speech pushed it down 1.79% on August 28

HHaelangdal·Founder AnalystAugust 29, 202616 min readWeekly Review
Bottom Line

This week's KOSPI decline was concentrated in two sessions: -3.12% on August 24 and -1.79% on August 28. The three sessions in between rose consecutively, bringing the August 27 close of 6,912.37 to within 0.58 points of the prior Friday's 6,912.95, and SK Hynix's close of 1,730,000 won was exactly the same value. Monday's decline traced to the Samsung Electronics shareholder-return resolution disclosed after the previous Friday's close. The 90 to 110 trillion won headline is the largest ever for a Korean company, but it did not reach the upper bound the market had been carrying, and the share allocated to cancellation was pushed to a January 2027 board meeting. Samsung fell 8.70% that day, and its weekly loss was also 8.70%. The entire week's decline happened in one session. Friday's decline traced to US monetary policy. Foreign investors sold a net 1.7564 trillion won ahead of Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote. In that speech, delivered after Korean markets had closed, Warsh said inflation remains too high and raised the possibility of further hikes. In between, the Bank of Korea lifted its base rate to 3.00% on August 27 and Nvidia reported quarterly revenue of 96.2 billion dollars.

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Reader's Brief — 30-second TL;DR

Intermediate
Why Now

8/24 Samsung Electronics -8.70% (257,000 won), KOSPI -3.12% (6,696.96, -215.99 points), individuals net buying about 3.8 trillion won, Broadcom -2.63% -> 8/25 KOSPI opens -2.40% and falls as much as -4.30% (6,408.82) before closing +0.68% (6,742.74), individuals buying 1.05 trillion won and institutions 1.17 trillion won against foreign selling of 3.82 trillion won, Samsung flat at 257,000 won -> 8/26 KOSPI +0.97% (6,808.21, 6,887.18 intraday), July PCE inflation 3.7% year over year with core at 3.3%, second-quarter GDP second estimate at an annualized 1.5%, and after the US close Nvidia reports fiscal 2027 second-quarter revenue of 96.2 billion dollars alongside an AWS deployment of 2 million additional GPUs -> 8/27 the Bank of Korea raises its base rate from 2.75% to 3.00% by a six-to-one vote, KOSPI opens +2.76% (6,996.12) and closes +1.53% (6,912.37), SK Hynix +2.49% (1,730,000 won), Nvidia +8.74% (227.98 dollars), Salesforce +22%, Nasdaq +1.57% -> 8/28 KOSPI -1.79% (6,788.88), foreign net selling of 1.7564 trillion won, Samsung -3.38% (257,000 won), SK Hynix -4.45% (1,653,000 won), KOSDAQ 838.41 (+0.09%), Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote

Winners ?? Losers

Up - Nvidia +1.32% for the week (217.55 dollars, including +8.74% on 8/27), KOSDAQ from 801.94 on 8/21 to 838.41 on 8/28, the Nasdaq +0.85%, the S&P 500 +0.49%, and the won (USDKRW from 1,385.98 to 1,375.67). Down - Samsung Electronics -8.70% (281,500 to 257,000 won, all of it on 8/24), SK Hynix -4.45% (1,730,000 to 1,653,000 won, all of it on 8/28), KOSPI -1.79%, West Texas Intermediate -4.16% (87.06 to 83.44 dollars), bitcoin -0.63% (78,335 to 77,839 dollars). For both the index and the individual names, most of the weekly move landed in a single session.

Watch For

Reading depth

Mon 8/24 - Samsung Electronics Falls 8.70% and KOSPI 3.12%

On August 24 KOSPI closed at 6,696.96, down 215.99 points. The decline was 3.12%. What pulled the down was an announcement made after the previous session's close.

The announcement was a record and the stock fell

Samsung Electronics' board approved a 2026 shareholder-return program of 90 to 110 trillion won on August 21. That is about five times the prior record of 20.3 trillion won set in 2020, and the first time a Korean company has committed to more than 100 trillion won of annual returns.

On the next trading day Samsung closed at 257,000 won, down 8.70%. Samsung Life fell 12.63%, Samsung C&T 8.60% and SK Square 4.90% as related names fell with it. Individuals bought a net 3.8 trillion won while foreign investors and institutions sold.

The gap between what was announced and what was expected

Two reasons were cited. First, among the expectations that lifted KOSPI the previous week were estimates putting the combined annual returns of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix as high as 200 trillion won. The resolution did not reach that upper bound.

Second, the composition was not fixed. The plan to pay roughly 30 trillion won of cash dividends in the third quarter will be finalized at a late-October board meeting, and the split between cash dividends and buyback-and-cancellation moves to a January 2027 board meeting once 2026 results are known. The share allocated to cancellation does not yet exist as a number.

PRIMER·Why the same shareholder return read differently at two companies

SK Hynix rose 12.73% in a single session on August 20. Samsung Electronics fell 8.70% on August 24. Both had just resolved large shareholder returns.

The difference lies in how much was fixed. SK Hynix's resolution set the amount at 40.0434 trillion won, the method as purchase followed by full cancellation, and the window as August 20 to November 19. When and how about 3.3% of shares outstanding disappear is written into the resolution itself.

Samsung's resolution set only a total range. The 90 to 110 trillion won band is 20 trillion won wide, and how much of it is dividend and how much is cancellation is decided in January 2027. A dividend is taxed when received and does not reduce the share count. A cancellation has no point of taxation and permanently reduces the share count. The same amount therefore has a different effect on earnings per share.

The size of the total and the form in which that total is executed are different pieces of information. What the market priced on August 24 was the second one.

The US also traded lower that session

In the US the S&P 500 fell 0.28% and the Nasdaq 0.76%. Broadcom fell 2.63%. Nvidia closed at 208.48 dollars, down 2.91%, as the market waited on its results on the 26th.

Samsung Electronics' 8.70% decline on August 24 is exactly its decline for the full week. The remaining four sessions did not recover it.

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This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Investment decisions should be made based on your own judgment and responsibility. The analysis and opinions contained herein are based on information available at the time of writing and are subject to change.

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