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Haelangdal Research · AI CAPITAL TERMINALCOMPUTE CAPITAL SERIES — GW LEDGER × SIGNAL BOARDDATA 2026-06-10--:--:-- KST
Frontier top-14 sites — live (energized) total
7.9GW2026E US energization ~12GW
Stargate energized/target 0.59 / 10GW(2029)Full-load capex ~$29bn/GWHV transformer lead time 24~30M → max 5Y
~100GW
GE Vernova turbine backlog — ~10GW of slots left for 2029-30
Oracle RPO $553bn · OCI quarterly revenue $4.9bn (Q3 filing)
Signal Board · Early Warning3-tier system — updated 2026-06-10
SIG-3
Memory contract pricing
FINAL ALARM
DDR5 +100% · capacity sold out · shortage through 2027+ — momentum intact
Normal
SIG-1
Pipeline slippage
PIPELINE → CONTRACT
'Half of plans delayed' stat holds · Crusoe Wyoming reclassified as developer swap (excluded)
Watch
SIG-2
Contract renegotiation
TAKE-OR-PAY
One reported OpenAI-Oracle Stargate expansion walk-back (March) — second occurrence triggers re-rating
Watch
CREDIT
Credit spreads
ORCL CDS · IG
Oracle CDS touched 125bp (highest since 2009) · RPO $553bn
Watch
DELIVER
Backlog-to-revenue
RPO $553BN · OCI
400MW+ delivered in Q3 · OCI quarterly revenue $4.9bn — re-rated on Q4 print
Pending
TENANT
Backfill absorption
BACKFILL QUEUE
Anthropic leasing Colossus · 2025 vacated capacity backfilled by Google·Meta
Normal
GW Ledger — paper capacity vs physical capacityUnit: GW — backlog(gold) · energized(navy) · in-progress(grey)
GE VERNOVA
Gas turbine backlog (company)
~100
US 2026E
Energization additions (market research)
~12
FRONTIER TOP-14
Live total (Epoch, 6/6)
7.9
STARGATE
Energized — ~6% of 10GW target (OpenAI·Epoch)
0.59
Frontier live compute / global shipments (Nov 2025, Epoch·NVIDIA) — ~2.5M / 15-17M H100-equivalents
Circular financing mapInvestment (rust) ↔ compute purchase/supply (blue) — announced/reported
Equity / warrants
Compute purchase / supply
NVIDIA → OPENAI · Up to $100bn LOI (Sep 2025)OPENAI → ORACLE · Stargate compute ~$300bn reported (Sep 2025)ORACLE → NVIDIA · Bulk GPU purchases for StargateAMD → OPENAI · Warrants up to 160M shares — tied to 6GW (Oct 2025)MSFT → OPENAI · ~$13bn cumulative investmentNVIDIACHIP VENDOROPENAIFRONTIER LABORACLERPO $553BNAMDMSFT
Watch CadenceEarly-warning ops guide
WeeklyMemory spot/contract pricing (SIG-3) · site starts/halts (SIG-1)
MonthlySatellite/permit site ledger — energized MW increments
QuarterlyOracle delivered MW & RPO adds · CoreWeave revenue · GEV slots
EventTake-or-pay renegotiations · private-credit DC marks · Vera Rubin ramp
Haelangdal Research · newmoneymoves.io — COMPUTE CAPITAL SERIES
Source report: The GW Ledger →
For information only · not investment advice · figures may change after the as-of date