Customs Speaks First — Export Nowcast TerminalReading the semiconductor and AI-infra cycle from national-customs and UN Comtrade hard data
The memory cycle has flipped from volume-led to price-led. On the Korea->China memory corridor, value more than quadrupled while shipped weight actually fell - almost all of the gain is price.
Japanese chip-equipment exports are still negative over the last three months - even with prices soaring, the capex build cycle has not switched on. Supply discipline shows up in the hard data.
US imports of Taiwanese AI servers set a fresh monthly record. There is no sign the tariff pull-in has burned out - four straight months on a high plateau, then a new peak.
Through June 30, the customs read shows no trace of a slowdown. Korea's semiconductor export growth accelerated for six straight months. The worry is about future supply; customs speaks to present demand.
July 11 first reading: Korea's July 1-10 semiconductor exports came in at $3.83B (+12.8% YoY), 19.7% of total exports. Working days were 8.5, flat versus last year, so this is a clean YoY. Momentum cooled sharply from June's blistering +205.8% - but 10-day slices carry heavy quarter-end/customs-timing noise, so confirm only together with the July 21 second reading.
Five core corridors — latest, YoY, MoM direction, and a 12-month sparkline
Semiconductors are 44% of all Korean exports. Six straight months of YoY acceleration.
China 32% + Vietnam 11% ~ nearly half the world memory corridor. ASP split in panel 2 below.
A fresh monthly record. No sign of tariff pull-in exhaustion (four months on a plateau).
Strong YoY + MoM plateau. Supply-limited, not demand slowing (optics: Lumentum, Fabrinet, Coherent).
The build cycle is still negative. A flip to positive YoY here is the capex-start signal (6-18 months ahead).
KOR→China/Vietnam memory (HS 854232). Value, weight, $/kg indexed to first month=100 — is it price or volume driving?
▶Methodology note — the mix trap in $/kg
Why only the memory corridor, not all semiconductors — the mix trap in $/kg
HS 8542 (electronic integrated circuits) splits by function — .31 processors & controllers, .32 memory, .39 other ICs. All are monolithic ICs, but their $/kg unit values differ by orders of magnitude.
So dividing total 8542 export value by weight produces a $/kg figure contaminated by product mix — a heavier shipment of low-value other ICs drags the average down regardless of memory prices, while a larger share of high-value memory sends it up.
That is why this nowcast isolates only the high-purity memory corridor (854232, KOR→China/Vietnam) to track ASP, rather than aggregating all of 8542.
Note: discrete power semiconductors, transistors, and diodes fall under HS 8541, not 8542.
Korea semiconductor (customs 10-day flash) intramonth cumulative + the July 11 decision bands
Semi intramonth cumulative — last 6 months ($B)
July 11 decision bands (pre-registered)
How many days customs led earnings — the start of an after-the-fact track record