SK Hynix
SK Hynix · Semiconductors/Memory
01Wall Street Consensus
02Earnings Results
Key Takeaways
- Revenue KRW 52.58T — First ever quarterly revenue above KRW 50T, +198% YoY
- Operating Profit KRW 37.61T, OPM 72% — All-time record
- Net Profit KRW 40.35T, NPM 77%
- Operating margin exceeds TSMC (58.1%) and NVIDIA (65%)
- DRAM ASP up mid-60s% QoQ, NAND ASP up mid-70s% QoQ
- HBM, server DRAM, eSSD high-value products drove price surge
- Cash KRW 54.3T, net cash KRW 35T achieved
Key Checkpoints
- 01HBM3E revenue share — maintaining 85%+ market dominance vs Samsung and Micron
- 02NVIDIA supply agreement execution — B200/B300 GPU memory allocation
- 03Operating margin trajectory — 35%+ target on premium HBM mix shift
- 04HBM4 development timeline — staying ahead of Samsung's catch-up efforts
- 05DRAM ASP trend — AI server mix driving +15-20% QoQ pricing power
- 06Capex guidance — HBM-focused investment vs commodity DRAM restraint
Upside Catalysts
- HBM3E capacity expansion: sole supplier status for NVIDIA's highest-volume AI GPUs
- HBM4 early development lead — potential first-to-market advantage in 2027
- AI server DRAM content explosion: 4-8x per unit driving structural demand growth
- Memory super-cycle: industry-wide under-investment in commodity DRAM supporting pricing
- Defensive growth: AI-driven demand relatively insulated from Iran conflict macro impact
Risk Factors
- Customer concentration: NVIDIA represents 50%+ of HBM revenue — single-customer dependency risk
- Samsung HBM4 catch-up: if Samsung achieves NVIDIA qualification, pricing pressure intensifies
- KOSPI crash -4.37% on 4/2 — macro risk-off hitting Korean semiconductor names despite strong fundamentals
- Capex intensity: HBM production requires 2-3x more wafer capacity per bit — margin dilution risk if demand slows
- Geopolitical: Iran war escalation raising energy costs and disrupting global supply chains
EEPS History (Last 2 Quarters)
Actual EPS vs Consensus — Green Beat · Red Miss
1Final Verdict
SK Hynix is the undisputed leader in HBM with 85%+ market share in HBM3E, the memory technology powering NVIDIA's AI GPU revolution. Consensus EPS ₩28,000, Revenue ₩20T.
The company has executed flawlessly on the AI memory opportunity, and the key question for Q1 is whether operating margins can sustain 35%+ levels as HBM mix continues to shift upward. With DRAM ASP rising +15-20% QoQ and HBM commanding 3-5x premium pricing, the earnings setup is extremely favorable.
The main risk is the KOSPI macro environment — the index crashed -4.37% to 4,981 on April 2 amid Iran war fears, dragging even best-in-class companies lower. USD/KRW at 1,508 provides translation benefits but masks underlying market stress.
2HBM Dominance
HBM3E Market Position:
- 85%+ market share — effectively sole supplier to NVIDIA
- Revenue contribution: estimated 40%+ of total DRAM revenue
- ASP premium: 3-5x vs commodity DDR5
- Capacity fully sold out through H2 2026
NVIDIA Partnership:
- Primary supplier for B200, B300, and next-gen Rubin GPUs
- Co-development of custom HBM specifications
- Long-term supply agreements providing revenue visibility
HBM4 Roadmap:
- Development on track for 2027 mass production
- 48GB stack targeting next-gen AI accelerators
- Maintaining 1-2 quarter lead vs Samsung
- Key differentiator: thermal solution and yield expertise
3Financials & Outlook
Margin Expansion:
- Q4 2025 operating margin: ~33%
- Q1 2026 target: 35%+ on improved HBM mix
- HBM gross margin estimated at 60%+ vs 40% for commodity DRAM
- Product mix shift is the primary margin driver
Capex Strategy:
- HBM-focused investment: converting existing DRAM lines to HBM
- Minimal greenfield expansion — disciplined supply management
- 2026 capex: ₩15-17T estimated (majority HBM and advanced DRAM)
Macro Impact:
- KOSPI crash provides entry opportunity for fundamental buyers
- USD/KRW 1,508 translation benefit: ~₩500B incremental revenue
- AI demand largely insulated from Iran conflict economic impact
- Memory cycle fundamentals remain strong regardless of geopolitics
SEPS 서프라이즈 히스토리
분기별 EPS 컨센서스 대비 서프라이즈(%) — 막대: EPS, 점선: 매출
컨센서스 대비 실제 EPS/매출 서프라이즈 (%)