LG Energy Solution
LG Energy Solution · Batteries
01Wall Street Consensus
02Earnings Results
Key Takeaways
- 1Q26 revenue ₩6.72T (-2.5% YoY) — preliminary disclosed Apr 7
- Operating loss ₩207.8B — 2nd consecutive quarterly loss
- Reflects weak EV demand + initial costs of ESS North American production base transition
- Cost pressures from Iran war
- H2 rebound expected via accelerated GM JV restart + AI data-center ESS demand
- Conference call: Apr 30 10am KST (segment-level details to be disclosed)
Key Checkpoints
- 01North America JV production ramp — GM (Ultium Cells), Stellantis, Hyundai JV factory utilization
- 02ESS (Energy Storage System) revenue — utility-scale battery demand acceleration
- 03IRA tax credit benefit — 45X manufacturing credit impact on effective profitability
- 04Battery cell ASP trend — pricing stabilization after 2025 correction
- 0546-series cylindrical cell (4680) volume ramp for Tesla and other OEMs
- 06Operating margin recovery trajectory — target breakeven to low single digits
Upside Catalysts
- North America JV ramp: IRA-compliant local production securing long-term OEM contracts
- ESS mega-trend: utility-scale battery storage growing 40%+ YoY — less cyclical than EV
- 46-series cylindrical cells: higher energy density and lower cost — next-gen EV standard
- Solid-state battery development: LG aiming for 2028 commercialization
- European Gigafactory expansion: Poland capacity increase for Volkswagen and Stellantis supply
Risk Factors
- EV demand slowdown: global EV adoption pace moderating — excess battery capacity building
- CATL competition: Chinese battery giant with 35%+ global share and aggressive pricing
- IRA policy risk: potential modifications to EV tax credits and 45X manufacturing credits
- Customer concentration: Tesla, GM, and Hyundai represent majority of revenue
- Iran war: rising oil prices temporarily boosting ICE vehicle appeal vs EVs
1Final Verdict
LG Energy Solution is the world's #2 EV battery maker (behind CATL), navigating a challenging transition period. Consensus EPS ₩3,200, Revenue ₩8.5T.
The company faces a dual headwind: moderating EV demand growth and aggressive Chinese competition. However, the North America JV strategy — with GM, Stellantis, and Hyundai — provides a structural advantage through IRA tax credits that Chinese competitors cannot access.
ESS is the silver lining — utility-scale battery storage demand is growing 40%+ YoY and is less cyclical than EV batteries. The Iran war's impact on oil prices could temporarily slow EV adoption, but structural electrification trends remain intact.
2Battery Market & Strategy
North America JV Network:
- Ultium Cells (GM JV): Ohio and Tennessee plants ramping
- Stellantis JV: Ontario, Canada plant operational
- Hyundai JV: Georgia plant under construction
- Total NA capacity target: 200+ GWh by 2027
- IRA 45X credit: $35-45/kWh manufacturing tax credit advantage
ESS Growth:
- Utility-scale installations: major US and Australian projects
- Revenue share: growing from 15% to 25%+ of total
- Higher margin than EV cells due to less price pressure
- Grid-scale battery demand driven by renewables intermittency
Technology Roadmap:
- 46-series cylindrical: 4680/4695 format for Tesla and others
- LFP entry: developing cost-competitive chemistry for mass market
- Solid-state: pilot line planned for 2027, commercialization 2028
- Silicon anode: next-gen anode material improving energy density 20%+
SEPS 서프라이즈 히스토리
분기별 EPS 컨센서스 대비 서프라이즈(%) — 막대: EPS, 점선: 매출
컨센서스 대비 실제 EPS/매출 서프라이즈 (%)