Apple Inc.
Apple Inc. · Big Tech (Hardware/Services)
01Wall Street Consensus
02Company Guidance
03Earnings Results
Key Takeaways
- EPS $2.01 — beat consensus $1.95 by +3.1%, +22% YoY
- Revenue $111.18B — beat consensus $109.66B by +1.4%, +17% YoY all-time high quarterly
- iPhone revenue $56.99B — March-quarter record, +22% YoY
- Services revenue $30.98B — company all-time high, +16% YoY
- Gross margin 49.3% — up from 48.2% in the prior quarter
- $100B new buyback authorization — continued capital return
- Cook flagged meaningfully higher memory costs next quarter — memory cycle spreading to device makers
- Apple-Google Gemini Siri partnership — AI model outsourced, Apple Silicon retained in-house
Key Checkpoints
- 01iPhone revenue — Q1 $85.3B (+23% YoY, all-time high) followed by Q2 seasonal decline magnitude
- 02Services revenue $30B+ maintenance and +14% YoY growth continuation
- 03Greater China revenue — sustainability after Q1 +38% YoY
- 04Gross Margin 48-49% guidance range achievement
- 05India manufacturing share expansion to 25% and tariff hedge effect
- 06Apple Intelligence/Siri upgrade launch timeline
Upside Catalysts
- iPhone 17 cycle continues: Q1 upgrade rate at all-time high, double-digit Android-to-iPhone switching growth
- Services $30B quarterly run rate - high-margin recurring revenue justifies valuation premium
- Apple DRAM monopoly move (4/3): Apple bought all available mobile DRAM supply, blocking competitors - strategic supply chain dominance securing component access and potentially constraining rivals' product launches
- India manufacturing expansion: 25% to majority target by year-end, tariff avoidance + geopolitical hedge
- Apple Intelligence spring 2026 launch: advanced Siri as Services monetization driver
Risk Factors
- Tariff risk: ~$900M additional cost expected for June quarter, ~50% of US-bound devices still made in China
- Iran war driving oil to $107+ and consumer sentiment deterioration - discretionary spending pullback risk for premium devices
- China competition: Huawei market share recovery + government employee iPhone restrictions
- AI perception gap: Apple Intelligence delays, Siri criticism put narrative behind Google/Microsoft
- Seasonality: natural revenue decline from Q1 (December quarter) to Q2 (March quarter)
- Global macro shock: S&P Q1 -4.2%, Nasdaq Q1 -7.8% - risk-off environment pressuring growth multiples
EEPS History (Last 13 Quarters)
Actual EPS vs Consensus — Green Beat · Red Miss
1Final Assessment
Apple Q2 FY2026 is a seasonal decline quarter following a record-setting Q1 (December quarter). After posting Revenue of $143.8B (all-time record), iPhone Revenue of $85.3B (+23% YoY, all-time record), and net income of $42.1B in Q1, a natural pullback is expected.
The blockbuster catalyst is Apple's DRAM monopoly move (4/3): Apple has reportedly purchased all available mobile DRAM inventory, effectively blocking competitors from securing supply. This is a strategic masterstroke - ensuring Apple's own product pipeline faces no memory bottlenecks while potentially forcing rivals into component shortages and delayed launches.
However, the Iran war escalation (Brent $107+, Hormuz Strait crisis, Trump confirming 2-3 more weeks of strikes) has severely damaged consumer sentiment. S&P Q1 -4.2%, Nasdaq Q1 -7.8%. Premium device purchases may face near-term headwinds from the macro shock. EPS consensus $1.97, Revenue growth guidance of +13-16% YoY.
2iPhone & Hardware
Q1 FY2026 iPhone Results:
- Revenue: $85.3B (+23% YoY) — all-time record iPhone quarter
- iPhone 17 Pro/Pro Max driving the upgrade cycle
- Upgrade rate at all-time high, double-digit Android-to-iPhone switching growth
Q2 Outlook:
- Natural seasonal decline from the December quarter
- iPhone 17 cycle momentum expected to cushion the decline
India Manufacturing:
- Currently ~25% of all iPhones manufactured in India (55 million units in 2025, +53% YoY)
- Target: Majority of US-bound iPhones produced in India by end of 2026
- Indian government provided additional tax incentives in February 2026 budget
3Services & Ecosystem
Q1 FY2026 Services:
- Revenue: $30B (+14% YoY)
- Q2 guidance: Similar ~14% growth rate expected
- Apple's highest-margin and most stable segment
- Valuation multiple driver: Rising recurring revenue share justifies P/E premium
Apple Intelligence:
- Spring 2026 launch expected: Advanced Siri (multi-step tasks, conversational)
- Expected to serve as Services monetization driver + platform stickiness enhancer
- Market currently in "Show Me" mode — AI revenue contribution unconfirmed
4Tariff & China Risk
Tariff Impact:
- Estimated ~$900M additional cost for the June quarter
- ~50% of US-bound devices still manufactured in China
- Gradual hedge through India manufacturing expansion (25% to majority)
Greater China:
- Q1 FY2026: +38% YoY — a dramatic reversal from FY2025 weakness
- November China iPhone sales +40% YoY (industry checks)
- Risk: Huawei market share recovery + government agency iPhone use restrictions
Memory Costs:
- DRAM/NAND prices surging 40-50% (as of Q4 2025)
- Expected to weigh more heavily on Q2 Gross Margin compared to Q1
SEPS 서프라이즈 히스토리
분기별 EPS 컨센서스 대비 서프라이즈(%) — 막대: EPS, 점선: 매출
컨센서스 대비 실제 EPS/매출 서프라이즈 (%)