Released
FY2026 Q1
Earnings ReviewASML
MISSASML Holding
ASML Holding · Semiconductor Equipment
Wed, April 15, 2026·Before Market Open
EUVSemiconductor EquipmentLithographyAI InfrastructureEarnings
01Wall Street Consensus
EPS$7.62
Revenue$8.2-8.9B (guidance)
02Company Guidance
EPS€7.49-7.68
Revenue€8.2B-€8.9B
03Earnings Results
EPS$7.15-6.2%
Revenue€8.8B+2.4%
After-Hours ReactionPre-market +1.7% ($1,525)
Key Takeaways
- EPS €7.15 — Missed consensus €7.62 (-6.2%)
- Revenue €8.8B — Top of guidance, beat consensus €8.61B
- GPM 53.0% — Top of guidance, beat consensus 52.2%
- FY guidance raised: €34-39B → €36-40B (+€2B)
- EUV equipment 66% of total revenue, y-y +29%
- Memory equipment 37%, q-q +41% — HBM/AI investment acceleration
- China revenue dropped to 19% (-56% q-q)
- Installed Base Management €2.5B — On track for €10B+ annually
Key Checkpoints
- 01EUV backlog at EUR 25.5B — 2026-2027 revenue visibility secured
- 02Q4 2025 orders at EUR 13.2B (record high, 2x consensus)
- 03High-NA EUV customer expansion status (Intel operational, Samsung adoption, TSMC non-adoption)
- 04China revenue share target of 29% to 20% achievement progress
- 05Gross Margin 51-53% guidance vs Q4 52.2% actual
- 06Semiconductor equipment market 2026 $139B to 2027 $156B outlook
Upside Catalysts
- AI logic EUV supercycle intact despite TurboQuant: TSMC's $52-56B CapEx is overwhelmingly logic-driven - N2/N3 EUV demand unaffected by memory compression; logic is 70%+ of ASML's EUV backlog
- EUR 38.8B record backlog - 2026-2027 revenue visibility regardless of near-term memory softness
- Micron rebuttal (+5.3% bounce on 4/1): management argued TurboQuant impact is overstated and HBM demand remains strong for non-Google hyperscalers
- High-NA EUV Samsung ramp-up acceleration could beat expectations
- New share buyback program announcement (alongside Q4 results)
Risk Factors
- China revenue decline: 29% to 20% guide, faster-than-expected drop could impact earnings
- Google TurboQuant headwind for memory EUV: AI memory compression reducing HBM demand 10-50% could slow memory fab EUV investment - memory customers (SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron) may defer EUV orders if HBM demand outlook weakens
- High-NA EUV adoption delay: TSMC non-adoption for 1.4nm, volume production delayed to 2027-28
- Iran war -> EU energy cost crisis: Brent $107+, European energy costs spiking - directly impacts ASML's Dutch operations and European customer fab operating costs, potentially delaying investment timelines
- Stock priced in: YTD +30% rally creates 'Sell the News' risk
- China rare earth export controls create EUV component supply chain risk
Detail
EEPS History (Last 13 Quarters)
Actual EPS vs Consensus — Green Beat · Red Miss
Beat9
Miss3
Beat rate75%
1Earnings Summary
ASML Holding (ASML) Q1 2026 Earnings Released.
EPS: €7.15 (vs consensus €6.57, +8.8%) Revenue: €8.8B (vs consensus €8.61B, +2.4%) GPM: 53.0% (vs consensus 52.2%, +0.8%p)
FY guidance raised to €36-40B (+€2B). AI semiconductor supercycle reconfirmed.
2Key Insights
1. EUV Monopoly + AI Demand = Supercycle Continues
- EUV revenue share 66%, y-y +29%
- €38.8B backlog provides visibility through 2027
- SK Hynix $8B single order confirmed
2. Structural Memory Transition
- Memory equipment 37%, q-q +41%
- EUV adoption for HBM is permanent demand shift, not cyclical
3. Risk Factors
- MATCH Act: Full DUV China ban could cut revenue 14-15%
- Bookings data now undisclosed, reducing market visibility
- Current price $1,500-$1,525 assumes flawless execution
Detail
SEPS 서프라이즈 히스토리
Beat8Miss5Beat률 62%
분기별 EPS 컨센서스 대비 서프라이즈(%) — 막대: EPS, 점선: 매출
컨센서스 대비 실제 EPS/매출 서프라이즈 (%)