ASML Holding
ASML Holding · Semiconductor Equipment
01Wall Street Consensus
02Earnings Results
Key Takeaways
- Revenue €9.33B — above consensus ~€8.80B, breaking through the top of its own €8.4-9.0B guidance
- Net income €2.92B, EPS €7.59, GM 54.0% — beats across the board
- Installed Base Management (services and upgrades) revenue €2.8B — about €0.3B above consensus, one pillar of the surprise
- System sales €6.6B, 86 new lithography systems — logic 51% : memory 49%
- EUV share of system sales 57% (Q1: 66%)
- China share of system sales ~14% — down further from 36% in 4Q25 and 19% in 1Q26
- €1.1B of buybacks in the quarter plus a €1.88 interim dividend (payable Aug 5)
- FY26 revenue guidance €43-45B (vs €36-40B in April) — GM 54-56%
- Q3 guidance €11.0-12.0B — roughly +11% vs the €10.37B consensus
Key Checkpoints
- 01Net bookings — EUV and High-NA mix
- 02Quarterly revenue and gross margin
- 03High-NA EUV shipments and customer adoption progress
- 04Shift in China revenue share
- 05Whether full-year revenue guidance holds
Upside Catalysts
- AI-driven leading-edge investment — EUV orders
- High-NA commercial ramp in full swing
- Simultaneous capacity expansion across foundry and memory
Risk Factors
- Order intake volatility — lumpy by quarter
- Tighter China export controls
- Memory/foundry capex timing slips
- Equipment order deferrals under a macro slowdown
EEPS History (Last 13 Quarters)
Actual EPS vs Consensus — Green Beat · Red Miss
1Results Summary
ASML Holding (ASML) Q2 2026 results released.
Revenue: €9.33B (above consensus ~€8.80B, through the top of company guidance) Net income: €2.92B / EPS: €7.59 GM: 54.0%
Q3 guidance of €11.0-12.0B runs roughly 11% above consensus. Full-year guidance moved from €36-40B to €43-45B. That is the second raise this year, after April.
2Key Insights
1. It is the speed of the raise, not the size The full-year guide that read €36-40B three months ago now reads €43-45B. The Q3 guidance midpoint of €11.5B sits 11% above the €10.37B consensus. AI-driven logic and memory expansion is converting into equipment orders faster than street models assumed. The plan to lift low-NA EUV and DUV immersion capacity by 30% each in 2027 is the proof.
2. Installed base revenue — the structure of the surprise Installed Base Management — services and upgrades on machines already in the field — came in at €2.8B, about €0.3B above consensus, up from €2.5B just one quarter earlier. The more systems get installed, the more recurring revenue stacks up. That cushion against new-system cyclicality has become the source of the earnings surprise.
3. Memory and China Memory reached 49% of system sales, in balance with logic at 51%. Memory fab expansion now carries half of EUV demand. China's share of system sales fell further to ~14% (36% in 4Q25, 19% in 1Q26, ~14% in 2Q26). ASML raised guidance while shrinking its China dependence. The bottleneck of the AI cycle is capacity, not demand.
SEPS 서프라이즈 히스토리
분기별 EPS 컨센서스 대비 서프라이즈(%) — 막대: EPS, 점선: 매출
컨센서스 대비 실제 EPS/매출 서프라이즈 (%)