Broadcom Inc.
Broadcom Inc. · Semiconductors (AI ASIC)
01Wall Street Consensus
02Earnings Results
Key Takeaways
- Q2 revenue $22.2B — +48% YoY, ahead of consensus
- AI semiconductor revenue $10.8B — +143% YoY (custom ASIC + networking)
- Non-GAAP EPS $2.44 — beat $2.32 consensus by +5.2%
- FY2026 AI semiconductor revenue guidance reaffirmed at $56B (~+180%)
- FY2027 AI semiconductor revenue outlook maintained at $100B+
- Q3 AI revenue guidance $16.0B — below $17.2B consensus, the selloff trigger
Key Checkpoints
- 01AI revenue — custom ASIC (Google TPU, Meta MTIA) + networking contribution
- 02VMware integration synergies — operating margin expansion from acquisition
- 03Networking revenue (Tomahawk, Jericho switches) growth at AI data centers
- 04Non-AI semiconductor revenue recovery — enterprise/telco stabilization
- 05Consolidated operating margin 60%+ trajectory
- 06AI revenue run rate guidance — $15B+ annual target update
Upside Catalysts
- Google TurboQuant likely to increase Broadcom ASIC revenue — Broadcom designs the chips Google brands
- AI ASIC TAM expanding as more hyperscalers pursue custom silicon (Microsoft, Amazon exploring)
- VMware recurring revenue model driving predictable cash flows and margin expansion
- Ethernet switching dominance in AI clusters — Tomahawk 5 at 51.2 Tbps
- New ASIC customer wins beyond Google/Meta — potential $5B+ revenue from additional hyperscalers
Risk Factors
- Customer concentration: Google and Meta represent majority of AI ASIC revenue
- Google TurboQuant may be partially designed in-house, reducing Broadcom's ASIC role
- VMware integration execution risk — customer churn from pricing changes
- Non-AI semiconductor recovery slower than expected in telco/enterprise
- Iran conflict macro uncertainty — enterprise IT spending deferrals
EEPS History (Last 13 Quarters)
Actual EPS vs Consensus — Green Beat · Red Miss
1Final Verdict
Broadcom is the primary beneficiary of the custom AI chip megatrend as the designer behind Google TPU and Meta MTIA. Consensus EPS $1.65, Revenue $16.8B. The Google TurboQuant announcement is paradoxically bullish for Broadcom — it validates the custom ASIC trend that Broadcom dominates.
The VMware integration is the other critical story — Broadcom's transition to subscription licensing is driving margin expansion but has created customer friction. Operating margin above 60% would confirm successful integration.
With AI ASIC revenue on a $15B+ annual run rate and potential new hyperscaler customers, Broadcom's AI story is expanding beyond its initial Google/Meta base.
2AI ASIC & Networking
Custom AI Chips:
- Google TPU v5/v6: Broadcom designs the silicon, Google brands and deploys
- Meta MTIA: Custom inference accelerator designed with Broadcom
- AI ASIC revenue: $15B+ annual run rate (FY2026 target)
- TurboQuant impact: Google's next-gen custom chip likely deepens Broadcom partnership
Networking:
- Tomahawk 5: 51.2 Tbps Ethernet switch — dominant in AI data centers
- Jericho3-AI: Purpose-built for AI cluster fabric
- AI networking revenue: $4B+ annual and growing 40%+ YoY
- Transition from InfiniBand to Ethernet in AI clusters benefits Broadcom
New Customer Pipeline:
- Microsoft, Amazon, and others exploring custom ASICs
- Each new hyperscaler customer: $3-5B annual revenue potential
- Broadcom's design expertise creates a 2-3 year moat vs competitors (Marvell, etc.)
3VMware & Software
VMware Integration:
- Acquired for $61B (Nov 2023)
- Transition to subscription licensing: 85%+ recurring revenue by FY2026
- Customer backlash on pricing changes — some churn to alternatives (Nutanix, etc.)
- Operating margin target: 60%+ consolidated (up from 45% pre-VMware)
Software Portfolio:
- VMware Cloud Foundation (VCF): Private cloud platform
- Symantec enterprise security
- CA Technologies mainframe software
- Combined software revenue: $8B+ quarterly
Macro Context:
- Enterprise IT spending under pressure from Iran conflict uncertainty
- VMware's mission-critical nature limits customer willingness to switch
- Subscription model provides cash flow visibility regardless of macro
SEPS 서프라이즈 히스토리
분기별 EPS 컨센서스 대비 서프라이즈(%) — 막대: EPS, 점선: 매출
컨센서스 대비 실제 EPS/매출 서프라이즈 (%)