Cameco Corporation
Cameco Corporation · Uranium (Nuclear Fuel)
01Wall Street Consensus
02Earnings Results
Key Takeaways
- Adj. EPS $0.47 / GAAP EPS $0.30 — up from $0.16 (+88% YoY)
- Revenue $845M — up from $789M (+7% YoY)
- Adj. EBITDA $509M — up from $353M (+44% YoY)
- Net income $131M — up from $70M (+87% YoY)
- Uranium segment revenue $712M (+$93M YoY) — sales volume 7.8M lb (vs 6.9M lb)
- Average realized price $91.26/lb (US $66.21) — strong uranium market
- Gross profit $302M — up from $270M (+12% YoY)
- $1.1B cash and $1.0B debt — solid balance sheet
- FY2026 guidance maintained — integrated uranium/fuel/Westinghouse strategy intact
Key Checkpoints
- 01Uranium production volume — McArthur River/Cigar Lake output
- 02Average realized uranium price — spot vs long-term contract mix
- 03Westinghouse (40% stake) contribution — nuclear fuel services revenue
- 04Long-term contract portfolio — volume and pricing commitments
- 05Uranium inventory position and spot market purchases
- 06Fuel services segment revenue and margin
Upside Catalysts
- Iran conflict: Russia supplies 40%+ of global uranium enrichment — sanctions risk tightening supply
- Nuclear renaissance: AI data center power demand driving new reactor orders and plant restarts
- Uranium spot price above $100/lb — highest sustained level in 15+ years
- Westinghouse integration: Full nuclear fuel cycle exposure (mining + conversion + fabrication)
- Global nuclear build: 60+ reactors under construction worldwide
Risk Factors
- Uranium price volatility — spot price swings of 20%+ common
- Production disruptions at McArthur River or Cigar Lake — weather, technical issues
- Iran conflict: Russia sanctions on uranium enrichment — supply chain disruption
- Kazatomprom (Kazakhstan) production decisions impacting global supply balance
- Nuclear regulatory approvals for new reactors and restarts taking longer than expected
1Final Verdict
Cameco is the world's largest publicly traded uranium producer and a pure-play on the nuclear energy renaissance. Consensus EPS $0.35, Revenue $680M. The company is benefiting from a perfect storm of supply constraints and demand acceleration.
The Iran conflict is particularly significant for Cameco — Russia processes 40%+ of global uranium enrichment, and any expansion of sanctions to Russian nuclear services would dramatically tighten Western uranium supply. Cameco, as a Canadian producer with Western-aligned processing capabilities, would be a primary beneficiary.
With 60+ reactors under construction globally and AI data centers creating new demand for 24/7 clean baseload power, the structural case for uranium has never been stronger. Cameco's Westinghouse stake (40%) provides additional exposure to nuclear fuel services and reactor technology.
2Uranium Market & Iran
Uranium Supply/Demand:
- Global demand: ~180M lbs U3O8 annually (and growing)
- Global mine supply: ~140M lbs — structural deficit
- Spot price: $100+/lb — 15-year high sustained levels
- Long-term contract price: $75-85/lb (lagging spot)
Iran Conflict & Russia Risk:
- Russia's Rosatom: 40%+ of global uranium enrichment capacity
- Current status: US ban on Russian enriched uranium (signed 2024)
- Escalation risk: Broader sanctions on Russian nuclear services
- Impact on Cameco: Directly bullish — Western uranium becomes more valuable
- Kazakhstan: Russia's ally — Kazatomprom supply also at risk
Cameco's Production:
- McArthur River/Key Lake: 18M lbs/year capacity (world's largest high-grade mine)
- Cigar Lake: 18M lbs/year capacity
- Total: ~30M lbs/year of U3O8 production capacity
- Expansion potential at McArthur River to 25M lbs/year
3Nuclear Renaissance & Westinghouse
Nuclear for Data Centers:
- AI data center power demand: 500MW-2GW per campus
- Nuclear provides: 24/7, carbon-free, weather-independent baseload
- Plant restarts: Three Mile Island (Microsoft), Palisades (Holtec)
- SMR (Small Modular Reactors): NuScale, GE Hitachi designing next-gen reactors
Westinghouse (40% stake):
- Nuclear fuel fabrication: Converts uranium into fuel assemblies
- Reactor services: Maintenance and upgrades for 440+ operating reactors globally
- AP1000 reactor technology: Next-gen large reactor design
- Revenue contribution to Cameco: Growing — full nuclear fuel cycle exposure
Global Nuclear Build:
- 60+ reactors under construction (China, India, UAE, Turkey, Egypt)
- 100+ reactors planned for next 15 years
- Net-zero commitments: 22 countries pledged to triple nuclear capacity by 2050
Financial Position:
- Long-term contracts: Locked in volume at $65-80/lb average price
- Spot market sales: Benefiting from $100+/lb pricing
- Balance sheet: Net cash position, no financing risk
- Dividend: Growing with uranium market strength
SEPS 서프라이즈 히스토리
분기별 EPS 컨센서스 대비 서프라이즈(%) — 막대: EPS, 점선: 매출
컨센서스 대비 실제 EPS/매출 서프라이즈 (%)