Alphabet Inc.
Alphabet Inc. · Big Tech (Ads/Cloud)
01Wall Street Consensus
02Earnings Results
Key Takeaways
- EPS $9.11 (+294% YoY) — a headline +216% beat vs $2.88 consensus, but mostly unrealized mark-to-market gains on minority stakes in Anthropic and SpaceX (other income of $98.0B). Excluding those gains, normalized EPS was roughly $2.85, in line with consensus
- Revenue $119.8B (+24% YoY) — beat $116.9B consensus by +2.5%
- Net income $112B (+298% YoY) — inflated by the $98.0B other-income equity gain
- Operating income $40.8B (+30% YoY) — operating margin expanded to 34%
- Google Cloud revenue $24.8B (+82% YoY) — accelerated on AI infrastructure demand; Cloud operating income $8.8B, more than 3x the $2.8B a year ago
- Cloud backlog $514B — multi-year revenue visibility
- Search & other ads +17% YoY, YouTube ads +13% YoY
- FY2026 CapEx guidance raised to $195-205B (from $180-190B) — surging AI datacenter investment
- Share buybacks halted ($0 vs $13.2B a year ago) — cash redirected to AI infrastructure; Q2 FCF -$5.9B
- Gemini Enterprise adopted by ~90% of the Fortune 100; Gemini app 950M MAU; AI Mode surpassed 1B MAU
- API throughput 22B tokens/min (up from 16B prior quarter); 9M+ monthly developers
- YouTube World Cup 1.7B cumulative viewers; Waymo unveiled 6th-gen 'Ojai' vehicle; Wing passed 1M cumulative drone deliveries; Isomorphic Labs raised $2B+
Key Checkpoints
- 01Google Cloud (GCP) revenue and operating margin
- 02Search ad revenue — impact of AI Overviews
- 03YouTube advertising
- 04CapEx guidance (datacenters/AI)
- 05Gemini and AI product monetization
Upside Catalysts
- Widening cloud profitability
- AI infrastructure CapEx hikes — value-chain trickle-down
- Accelerating Gemini adoption
Risk Factors
- AI search transition — ad pricing cannibalization concerns
- Cloud competition (AWS, Azure)
- Antitrust regulation and breakup risk
- Surging CapEx → margin pressure
EEPS History (Last 13 Quarters)
Actual EPS vs Consensus — Green Beat · Red Miss
1Our Read
The headline EPS is best ignored. Most of the $9.11 is an unrealised mark-up on private stakes such as Anthropic and SpaceX. Strip that out and normalised EPS was $2.85, short of the $2.89 consensus. A triple-digit surprise on the surface was a miss underneath.
The core business held up. Revenue beat consensus and cloud accelerated to +82%. The problem is not earnings but cash. Free cash flow — operating cash flow less capital expenditure — turned negative for the first time. The company spent more on data centres than it earned in operating cash. Full-year capex guidance was raised in real terms as well.
This quarter Alphabet has to be read off the cash flow statement, not the income statement.
SEPS 서프라이즈 히스토리
분기별 EPS 컨센서스 대비 서프라이즈(%) — 막대: EPS, 점선: 매출
컨센서스 대비 실제 EPS/매출 서프라이즈 (%)