Alphabet Inc.
Alphabet Inc. · Cloud infrastructure (Google Cloud/AI)
01Wall Street Consensus
Key Checkpoints
- 01Backlog growth - vs. $514B last quarter, and whether Anthropic's share shifts
- 02Google Cloud revenue growth rate
- 03Whether external TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) sales/leasing expands
- 04AI search and Gemini revenue contribution
- 05Data center capex guidance
Upside Catalysts
- Expansion of the Anthropic TPU contract
- New large customer wins at Google Cloud
- Accelerating Gemini paid conversion
Risk Factors
- Customer concentration - the Anthropic TPU contract is the primary driver of backlog
- Google Cloud's later-mover position versus Azure and AWS
- Heavy capex burden
- Reporting date is provisional and subject to change
EEPS History (Last 14 Quarters)
Actual EPS vs Consensus — Green Beat · Red Miss
1Preview Note
Alphabet has not yet officially confirmed the reporting date for fiscal 2026 third quarter (quarter ending 2026-09-30). The October 27 date above is a provisional estimate based on past reporting patterns. This will be updated immediately once the company announces an official date.
2RPO Watch
The key number in Alphabet's earnings is Google Cloud's backlog. It stood at $514B as of the second quarter. The anchor holding up that backlog is Anthropic, which signed a large-scale leasing deal for TPUs - Google's own AI chips - accounting for much of the recent increase.
This quarter, the question is whether backlog growth continues: whether new large customers are added beyond Anthropic, and whether external TPU sales or leasing expands to other customers such as OpenAI. At the same time, watch whether dependence on Anthropic alone keeps deepening.
Google Cloud is the smallest of the three major cloud providers by revenue, but it has a differentiator in its own silicon. Whether the quality of the backlog - reduced customer concentration - holds up will determine whether that differentiator turns into sustainable growth. If backlog keeps growing but Anthropic's share keeps rising too, Google Cloud's diversification story remains unproven.