IBM
International Business Machines · Enterprise IT (Software/Infrastructure)
01Wall Street Consensus
Key Checkpoints
- 01Whether final results move vs preliminary figures ($17.2B revenue, $2.93 adjusted EPS)
- 02FY2026 guidance — maintained or cut
- 03Whether slipped large deals close in Q3
- 04Software detail — durability of Red Hat's +11% growth
- 05Infrastructure -7% breakdown — mainframe cycle vs demand deferral
- 06Cumulative AI bookings above $12B
Upside Catalysts
- July 22 full results call — guidance check after the pre-announcement shock
- Slipped deals closing in Q3 — deferred revenue recovery
- Cumulative AI bookings past $12B — GenAI consulting signings growth
Risk Factors
- Large-deal closing delays — risk the execution issue repeats
- Software and consulting spend squeezed if customer capex keeps rotating into servers and memory
- Infrastructure (mainframe) cycle downswing
- Further de-rating if guidance is cut
1Preview Note — The Pre-Earnings Shock
IBM took the unusual step of pre-announcing results on July 14. Q2 revenue of $17.2B (+1% YoY) missed the $17.86B consensus, and adjusted EPS of $2.93 fell short of the expected $3.01. Software +5%, consulting flat (+1% at constant currency), infrastructure -7%. The stock plunged more than 20% — its worst drop in decades.
The diagnosis in CEO Arvind Krishna's investor letter is the heart of this miss. In the final weeks of June, customers redirected quarterly capex toward servers, storage, and memory to lock in supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases. IBM software and infrastructure spending got pushed out as a result. This is a real-economy signal that enterprises are front-buying memory — for memory suppliers, it reads as demand acceleration. The company also admitted, however, that numerous large deals failing to close on schedule drove the majority of the shortfall. Memory does not explain all of it.
Full results and full-year guidance land on the July 22 (Wed) call at 5:00pm ET. Watch for movement vs the preliminary figures, whether guidance holds, and AI bookings now past $12B cumulative.