KLA Corporation
KLA Corporation · Semiconductor Equipment
01Wall Street Consensus
02Earnings Results
Key Takeaways
- Non-GAAP EPS $9.40 — beat consensus $9.15 by +2.7%
- GAAP EPS $9.12 — beat consensus $9.01 by +1.2%
- Revenue $3.415B — beat consensus $3.369B by +1.4%, +11.5% YoY
- GAAP net income $1.20B
- Quarterly dividend raised to $2.30
- Additional $7B buyback authorized
- Q4 guide for revenue $3.575B and EPS $9.87 — both above consensus
- CEO: 'Strong March quarter, high confidence in 2026 outlook'
Key Checkpoints
- 01EUV process inspection/metrology equipment demand — synchronized with ASML EUV capacity expansion
- 02HBM/3D NAND inspection equipment revenue share expansion
- 03Logic vs memory revenue mix shift — AI chip complexity increase effect
- 04Gross Margin 62%+ maintenance — service revenue share expansion effect
- 05China revenue share changes — export control impact monitoring
- 06Order backlog expansion trend
Upside Catalysts
- Increasing EUV layers proportionally increasing inspection/metrology steps - KLA uniquely positioned to benefit
- Logic inspection demand unaffected by TurboQuant: AI model complexity continues driving logic chip process advancements; GAA transition adds 30%+ inspection steps regardless of memory efficiency gains
- HBM quality inspection remains critical: even with lower HBM volume, 3D stacking defect detection per-unit inspection intensity is increasing
- TSMC N2 + Intel 18A simultaneous ramp-up driving peak advanced process inspection demand
- Service/subscription revenue share 40%+ strengthening recurring revenue stability
Risk Factors
- China export control tightening: advanced inspection equipment restrictions could impact ~25% of revenue
- Google TurboQuant memory headwind: HBM demand reduction of 10-50% from AI memory compression could slow memory fab inspection equipment orders
- Semiconductor equipment cycle peak concern: 2026-2027 upcycle peak followed by potential correction
- Iran war driving energy cost spikes - EU fab construction costs rising, global supply chain disruption risk
- Customer concentration: top 3 customers (TSMC, Samsung, Intel) represent 60%+ of revenue
EEPS History (Last 12 Quarters)
Actual EPS vs Consensus — Green Beat · Red Miss
1Final Assessment
KLA is the undisputed #1 in semiconductor inspection and metrology equipment. AI chip complexity growth + EUV layer expansion + HBM 3D stacking are structurally driving inspection equipment demand. Consensus EPS $10.05, Revenue $3.35B.
TurboQuant creates a bifurcated outlook: Google's AI memory compression algorithm (10-50% HBM demand reduction) could slow memory-related inspection equipment orders. However, KLA's exposure is more weighted toward logic process inspection, where demand is structurally robust - the GAA transition adds 30%+ more inspection steps, and TSMC N2 + Intel 18A ramp-ups are proceeding regardless. Even within HBM, per-unit inspection intensity is increasing as 3D stacking layers grow.
The Iran war (Brent $107+, EU energy costs spiking) adds marginal risk to European fab economics. Overall, KLA's high-profitability structure (Gross Margin 62%+, service revenue 40%+) and logic-weighted demand profile make it one of the more resilient semi equipment names in the current environment.
2AI & Advanced Process Inspection Demand
EUV Inspection Demand:
- Increasing EUV process layers proportionally increase inspection/metrology steps
- TSMC N3 to N2 transition: 20+ EUV layers leading to 40%+ more inspection points
- KLA holds 70%+ market share in EUV inspection and metrology
HBM Inspection:
- HBM4 12-16 layer stacking requires defect detection at each layer
- 3D stacking bond inspection: micro-bump and TSV precision inspection demand
- HBM inspection equipment TAM: 2024 $2B to projected $4B+ by 2027
GAA Transistors:
- FinFET to GAA transition increases process steps by 30%+
- Nanosheet structure precision metrology gives KLA exclusive technology advantage
3Financials & Service Business
Revenue Structure:
- Equipment revenue: ~60% (new equipment sales)
- Service revenue: ~40% (maintenance, subscriptions, upgrades)
- Service revenue share steadily expanding — recurring revenue stability
Gross Margin:
- FY2026 target: 62-64%
- Service revenue expansion + product mix improvement effects
- Industry-leading profitability
Capital Allocation:
- Share buybacks + dividends returning 80%+ of annual FCF to shareholders
- Dividend growth rate maintained at 10%+ CAGR
SEPS 서프라이즈 히스토리
분기별 EPS 컨센서스 대비 서프라이즈(%) — 막대: EPS, 점선: 매출
컨센서스 대비 실제 EPS/매출 서프라이즈 (%)