Eli Lilly and Company
Eli Lilly and Company · Pharmaceuticals/Biotech
01Wall Street Consensus
02Earnings Results
Key Takeaways
- Non-GAAP EPS $8.55 — beat consensus $6.85 by +24.8%, +156% YoY
- GAAP EPS $8.26 — +170% YoY
- Revenue $19.8B — beat consensus $17.82B by +11.1%, +56% YoY all-time quarterly high
- Mounjaro revenue $8.66B — +125% YoY (diabetes)
- Zepbound revenue $4.16B — +80% YoY (obesity)
- GLP-1 category accounts for roughly two-thirds of total revenue
- FY2026 revenue guide raised to $82-85B from $80-83B
- FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guide raised to $35.50-37.00
Key Checkpoints
- 01Mounjaro (diabetes) + Zepbound (obesity) combined revenue — acceleration from Q4 2025 $7B+ run rate
- 02GLP-1 supply constraint resolution progress — new manufacturing facility ramp effect
- 03Zepbound obesity market share — vs Novo Nordisk Wegovy
- 04Pipeline: orforglipron (oral GLP-1), retatrutide (triple agonist) clinical progress
- 05Gross Margin 82%+ maintenance — manufacturing scale-up effect
- 06FY2026 revenue guidance $58-62B trajectory achievement
Upside Catalysts
- Zepbound indication expansion: obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), NASH/MASH, heart failure expanding TAM to $100B+
- orforglipron (oral GLP-1): Phase 3 results expected 2026 - injection-to-oral transition game changer
- retatrutide (GLP-1/GIP/glucagon triple agonist): -25%+ weight loss - next-gen obesity treatment innovation
- Manufacturing capacity expansion: $20B+ global facility investment accelerating supply constraint resolution
- Defensive safe haven: healthcare growth stock premium surging amid Iran war escalation, oil spike to $107+, and global equity selloff - institutional rotation into quality pharma
Risk Factors
- GLP-1 competition intensifying: Novo Nordisk Wegovy/Ozempic + Viking, Amgen and other followers entering
- Drug pricing regulation: IRA price negotiation scope expansion - Mounjaro potentially subject in future
- Supply constraint persistence: unrealized revenue potential if demand continues exceeding supply
- Iran war escalation (4/2 Trump speech: 2-3 more weeks of strikes) - macro uncertainty pressuring high-valuation biotech multiples; S&P Q1 -4.2%, Nasdaq Q1 -7.8%
- Valuation: Forward P/E 50x+ - significant downside risk if elevated expectations not met amid risk-off environment
EEPS History (Last 12 Quarters)
Actual EPS vs Consensus — Green Beat · Red Miss
1Final Assessment
Eli Lilly is the frontrunner of the GLP-1 obesity and diabetes treatment revolution and the world's #1 pharma company by market cap at $700B+. Consensus EPS $7.45, Revenue $13.8B. Whether Mounjaro+Zepbound combined revenue accelerates from the Q4 2025 $7B+ run rate is the key question.
The biggest variable is the pace of supply constraint resolution. With demand overwhelmingly exceeding supply, if $20B+ manufacturing facility investments start reflecting in Q1, revenue upside surprise is possible.
Amid the Iran war escalation (Trump's 4/2 primetime speech confirmed 2-3 more weeks of energy facility strikes, Brent crude surging past $107), global equities have entered a severe risk-off phase - S&P 500 Q1 -4.2%, Nasdaq Q1 -7.8%, KOSPI -4.37% single-day crash. In this environment, LLY stands out as a premier defensive growth asset, immune to energy prices and geopolitical supply chain disruptions. Institutional rotation into quality healthcare names is accelerating.
2GLP-1 Franchise
Mounjaro (tirzepatide) — Diabetes:
- 2025 revenue: $18B+ (estimated)
- Once-weekly injection, GLP-1/GIP dual agonist
- US + global launch expansion underway
Zepbound (tirzepatide) — Obesity:
- 2025 revenue: $8B+ (estimated, year 2 of launch)
- Weight loss: -20-25% (clinical average)
- Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) indication approved (2025)
- Next indications: NASH/MASH, heart failure, chronic kidney disease
Supply Status:
- Demand >>> Supply (prescription limits, some dose shortages)
- $20B+ global manufacturing facility investment in progress
- New capacity expected to ramp significantly from H1 2026
- At supply normalization, annual revenue potential of $40B+
3Pipeline & Market Outlook
Next-Gen Pipeline:
- orforglipron: Oral small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist
- Phase 3 ongoing, results expected 2026
- If successful, game changer for injection-to-oral transition
- Revenue potential: $10B+
- retatrutide: GLP-1/GIP/glucagon triple agonist
- Phase 2 weight loss of -25%+ (highest ever)
- Phase 3 ongoing
- Potential to become the next-gen obesity treatment standard
Obesity Treatment Market:
- 2030 global TAM: $100B+ (Goldman Sachs estimate)
- Current penetration: <5% — massive growth potential
- Lilly + Novo Nordisk duopoly but followers (Viking, Amgen) entering
Iran Conflict Impact:
- Direct impact minimal (unrelated to energy/defense)
- Indirect: Macro uncertainty pressuring high-valuation growth stock multiples
- Conversely, healthcare defensive premium may be assigned
SEPS 서프라이즈 히스토리
분기별 EPS 컨센서스 대비 서프라이즈(%) — 막대: EPS, 점선: 매출
컨센서스 대비 실제 EPS/매출 서프라이즈 (%)