Lockheed Martin
Lockheed Martin · Defense/Aerospace
01Wall Street Consensus
02Earnings Results
Key Takeaways
- EPS $6.44 (missed est. $6.77) — -12% YoY
- Revenue $18.0B — flat YoY
- Operating Margin 11.4% — -180bp YoY
- Missiles & Fire Control +8%, Space +7%
- Aeronautics -1%, Rotary & Mission Systems -8%
- F-16 $125M loss provision, C-130J $55M adjustment
- Backlog $186.4B — +7.8% YoY
Key Checkpoints
- 01F-35 deliveries — Q1 achievement rate toward FY2026 target of 156 units
- 02Order backlog $165B+ maintenance and new orders — Iran conflict urgent contracts
- 03MFC (Missiles & Fire Control) revenue growth — JASSM, LRASM, Javelin demand
- 04Space segment — Next Gen OPIR satellite, SDA Proliferated Warfighter Space progress
- 05Operating margin 12%+ achievement
- 06FY2026 guidance raise potential — reflecting defense spending increase
Upside Catalysts
- Iran war = historic order surge: JASSM long-range missiles deployed in energy facility strikes, Javelin anti-tank missiles, PAC-3 MSE interceptors - inventory replenishment + allied procurement creating the largest order wave since Gulf War era
- NATO defense spending 3%+ GDP target discussion - expanding European F-35 adoption (Czech Republic, Greece, Romania)
- Missile defense: Golden Dome program prime contractor candidate
- Hormuz Strait crisis: 35-40 nation summit with no resolution - sustained demand for naval strike weapons (LRASM) and air-launched munitions
- FY2026 guidance raise expected - supplemental defense appropriations likely to boost order estimates
Risk Factors
- F-35 delivery delays: TR-3 software upgrade delays continuing to disrupt delivery schedule
- Supply chain workforce shortage: skilled defense manufacturing labor shortage bottlenecking production ramp-up
- Iran war capacity strain: Trump confirming 2-3 more weeks of energy facility strikes + Hormuz crisis driving extraordinary demand for JASSM, Javelin, PAC-3 MSE - production capacity stretched to limits
- Government budget: partisan conflicts delaying defense budget, new program starts constrained under CR
- F-35 unit cost negotiations: Block 4 upgrade cost burden issues
EEPS History (Last 12 Quarters)
Actual EPS vs Consensus — Green Beat · Red Miss
1Final Assessment
Lockheed Martin is the world's largest defense company and a direct beneficiary of the Iran war escalation. Consensus EPS $7.15, Revenue $18.9B. The backlog at $165B+ is poised for significant expansion as urgent Iran war orders flow in.
The war has entered a critical phase (3/30~4/2): Trump's primetime speech on 4/2 confirmed 2-3 more weeks of energy facility strikes using JASSM long-range missiles (Lockheed's product), the Hormuz Strait crisis has triggered a 35-40 nation multilateral summit with no resolution, and global markets are in turmoil (S&P Q1 -4.2%, KOSPI -4.37%). For LMT, this translates to historic demand: JASSM inventory replenishment, Javelin anti-tank missiles for ground operations, PAC-3 MSE interceptors for allied missile defense, and LRASM anti-ship missiles for naval contingencies.
FY2026 guidance raise is highly probable - current estimates do not fully reflect the post-3/30 escalation and expected supplemental defense appropriations. The defense sector is delivering historic outperformance, and LMT as the #1 by market cap is the primary institutional target.
2F-35 & Aeronautics
F-35 Program:
- FY2026 delivery target: 156 units
- TR-3 software: Verification completed late 2025, upgrade application starting 2026
- Block 4: Next major upgrade — enhanced EW capabilities, sensor fusion
- Global operators: 18+ countries, 1,000+ cumulative deliveries
European F-35 Demand:
- European defense spending surging post-Iran conflict
- Czech Republic, Greece, Romania accelerating adoption discussions
- Existing operators (Germany, Switzerland, Finland) reviewing additional orders
F-16:
- Continued upgrade demand from Taiwan, Turkey and others
- F-16V Block 70/72 new production continues
3Missiles & Space
MFC (Missiles & Fire Control):
- JASSM/JASSM-ER: Core long-range missile for Iran theater strike operations, inventory replenishment demand surging
- Javelin: Sustained anti-tank missile demand (Ukraine + Middle East)
- LRASM: Expanding anti-ship missile demand
- PAC-3 MSE: Interceptor for Patriot system (integrated with RTX Patriot)
- Hypersonic weapons: Hypersonic missile development programs in progress
Space Segment:
- Next Gen OPIR: Next-generation missile warning satellite system
- SDA Tranche 1/2: Low-orbit military satellite network
- GPS III: Next-generation navigation satellites
- Orion spacecraft: NASA Artemis program
SEPS 서프라이즈 히스토리
분기별 EPS 컨센서스 대비 서프라이즈(%) — 막대: EPS, 점선: 매출
컨센서스 대비 실제 EPS/매출 서프라이즈 (%)