Lam Research
Lam Research · Semiconductor Equipment
01Wall Street Consensus
02Earnings Results
Key Takeaways
- Q3 revenue $5.84B (+24% YoY, +9% QoQ) — slightly below $5.88B consensus (-0.7%)
- Adjusted EPS $1.47 — beats consensus $1.38 by +6.5%
- Gross margin 49.0%, exceeding upper guidance
- Driven by advanced packaging and HBM equipment demand
- Q4 FY26 revenue guidance: $5.4B ± $400M
Key Checkpoints
- 01Etch/deposition equipment orders — AI chip process complexity increase effect
- 02NAND investment recovery cycle entry — 3D NAND 300+ layer transition
- 03HBM-related equipment revenue share — TSV etch, bonding process demand
- 04GAA transistor transition driving 35%+ increase in etch process steps
- 05China revenue share changes — ~30% revenue impact if export controls tighten
- 06Gross Margin 48%+ maintenance
Upside Catalysts
- GAA transition: FinFET to GAA increasing etch process steps by 35%+ - Lam Research as primary beneficiary
- Logic/packaging demand robust despite TurboQuant: AI model complexity continues growing, driving logic chip etch demand unabated - TurboQuant only affects memory, not logic process equipment
- 3D NAND 300+ layer transition: dramatic increase in etch/deposition equipment requirements
- TSMC N2 + Intel 18A simultaneous ramp-up driving peak advanced logic etch equipment demand
- CSBG (Customer Support Business) high-margin service revenue expansion
Risk Factors
- China export controls: ~30% of revenue from China - significant impact if additional restrictions imposed
- Google TurboQuant shock: AI memory compression algorithm reducing HBM demand by 10-50% - could slow HBM-related etch equipment orders if memory makers cut CapEx (Micron crashed -30%)
- NAND investment recovery delay: slower-than-expected 3D NAND CapEx recovery would pressure revenue
- Iran war driving energy cost increases + supply chain disruption - EU energy costs up sharply, potentially delaying equipment delivery
- Semiconductor equipment cycle: downcycle entry concerns after 2027
EEPS History (Last 12 Quarters)
Actual EPS vs Consensus — Green Beat · Red Miss
1Final Assessment
Lam Research is a global #1-2 player in semiconductor etch and deposition equipment. AI chip complexity growth + GAA transition + HBM expansion are structurally driving etch equipment demand. Consensus EPS $1.38, Revenue $4.72B.
The TurboQuant factor: Google's AI memory compression algorithm (3/22~) has roiled memory stocks - Micron crashed -30%, and the implication of 10-50% HBM demand reduction could slow memory makers' CapEx plans. For Lam, HBM-related TSV etch and wafer bonding represents a growing but still minority share of revenue. The critical offset is that logic/packaging etch demand remains structurally robust - AI model complexity keeps growing regardless of memory efficiency gains, and the GAA transition adds 35%+ more etch steps per wafer.
The Iran war escalation (Brent $107+, EU energy costs spiking) adds pressure to European fab economics and could delay some customer investment timelines. However, the structural AI logic etch supercycle remains intact.
2AI & GAA Etch Demand
GAA (Gate-All-Around) Transistor Transition:
- FinFET to GAA (nanosheet) increases etch process steps by 35%+
- TSMC N2 (2nm): First GAA adoption, mass production started Q4 2025
- Intel 18A: RibbonFET (GAA) applied, targeting 2026 mass production
- Samsung 2nm: GAA foundry competition
Etch Equipment Demand Drivers:
- Multi-patterning to EUV transition changing etch step dynamics
- 3D stacking structures (HBM, 3D NAND) driving vertical etch demand explosion
- Selective Etch: GAA core process — Lam holds exclusive technology advantage
HBM Equipment:
- TSV etch: Core connection technology for 3D stacked chips
- Wafer bonding and thinning equipment
- HBM4 16-layer stacking driving 2x+ increase in TSV etch demand
3NAND Cycle & Financials
3D NAND Investment Cycle:
- Current: 200-232 layers mainstream
- Next-gen: 300+ layer transition ramping up (2026-2027)
- Etch/deposition equipment requirements: proportional to layer count — Lam as primary beneficiary
- SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron expected to enter simultaneous investment cycle
Financial Structure:
- Gross Margin: 48-49% target
- CSBG (Services): ~35% of total revenue, high recurring revenue share
- Capital allocation: 75%+ of annual FCF returned to shareholders (buybacks + dividends)
China Risk:
- Revenue share ~30% — biggest risk if additional controls imposed
- DUV-based legacy equipment demand relatively less impacted by regulations
- Non-China AI/HBM demand growing rapidly, partially offsetting
SEPS 서프라이즈 히스토리
분기별 EPS 컨센서스 대비 서프라이즈(%) — 막대: EPS, 점선: 매출
컨센서스 대비 실제 EPS/매출 서프라이즈 (%)