Microsoft Corporation
Microsoft Corporation · Cloud infrastructure (Azure/AI)
01Wall Street Consensus
Key Checkpoints
- 01Commercial RPO (remaining performance obligation) growth - vs. $678B last quarter, and whether OpenAI's 45% share shifts
- 02Azure revenue growth rate
- 03AI services revenue contribution
- 04Data center capex guidance
- 05Equity-method gains/losses tied to the OpenAI stake
Upside Catalysts
- Revenue recognition from expanded OpenAI contract
- New customer growth in Azure AI services
- Accelerating Copilot paid conversion
Risk Factors
- Customer concentration - OpenAI accounts for 45% of commercial RPO
- Free cash flow pressure from heavy capex
- Lag between AI infrastructure spend and revenue recognition
- Reporting date is provisional and subject to change
EEPS History (Last 14 Quarters)
Actual EPS vs Consensus — Green Beat · Red Miss
1Preview Note
Microsoft has not yet officially confirmed the reporting date for fiscal 2027 first quarter (quarter ending 2026-09-30). The October 27 date above is a provisional estimate based on past reporting patterns (roughly four weeks after fiscal quarter close). This will be updated immediately once the company announces an official date.
2RPO Watch
The first number to check in Microsoft's earnings is commercial RPO (remaining performance obligation) - its backlog. It stood at $678B last quarter, and the company has disclosed that 45% of it comes from a single customer: OpenAI.
Two things matter this quarter. First, whether commercial RPO grew again - driven by Azure expansion and new AI services contracts beyond OpenAI. Second, whether OpenAI's share climbed further from 45%. If it keeps rising, Microsoft's growth story becomes effectively tied to the spending decisions of one company.
OpenAI is both Microsoft's largest customer and an equity investment, and that dual relationship complicates how the RPO number should be read. If RPO keeps growing but OpenAI's share keeps rising too, that concentration itself becomes a new risk.