Microsoft Corporation
Microsoft Corporation · Big Tech (Cloud/Software)
01Wall Street Consensus
02Earnings Results
Key Takeaways
- Revenue $90.0B — beat consensus $87.6B by +2.7%, +18% YoY
- Non-GAAP EPS $4.74 — beat consensus $4.24 by +11.8%, +23% YoY (GAAP EPS $4.81, +32% YoY)
- Microsoft Cloud revenue $59.3B (+27% YoY) — beat consensus $58.7B
- Azure revenue growth 43% (constant currency) — above the roughly low-40s% Street estimate
- Operating margin 45.1%, operating income $40.6B (+18% YoY)
- Quarterly capex $35.8B, operating cash flow $55.4B — FY26 full-year capex $115.9B and operating cash flow $182.9B
- A roughly $3.2B gain on the Anthropic equity stake boosted GAAP net income; M365 Copilot paid seats topped 30 million, up from 20 million last quarter
- CY2026 capex-plus-finance-lease guidance reset from ~$190B to ~$175B (accounting reclassification, not a real spending cut) — FY2027 capex expected to grow further
- FY27 Q1 guide: Azure growth 45% (constant currency), revenue $89.85B-$90.95B
Key Checkpoints
- 01Azure revenue growth and AI contribution
- 02Microsoft Cloud revenue and margin
- 03Copilot and AI product monetization
- 04CapEx guidance (datacenters)
- 05Commercial bookings and RPO
Upside Catalysts
- Azure AI revenue acceleration
- Expanding Copilot enterprise adoption
- Datacenter CapEx hikes — value-chain trickle-down
Risk Factors
- Surging CapEx → FCF and margin pressure
- Azure growth deceleration concerns
- Uncertain pace of AI monetization
- OpenAI-related costs and equity variables
EEPS History (Last 13 Quarters)
Actual EPS vs Consensus — Green Beat · Red Miss
1Our Read
The headline that capex came down is a misreading. The move from $190B to $175B is the result of reclassifying finance leases as operating leases. The spending plan itself is unchanged.
A second change landed on top of it. The useful life of data centres and office buildings was extended from fifteen years to twenty-five. Build the same facility and annual depreciation falls, which flatters both earnings and free cash flow. The two are separate issues and both are real. Neither is a cut to investment.
The quarter itself was strong. Azure grew 43% in constant currency, re-accelerating from 40% the prior quarter, and passed $100B in annual revenue for the first time.
Of the four hyperscalers, only this one printed a smaller capex number — and what shrank was the accounting, not the investment.
SEPS 서프라이즈 히스토리
분기별 EPS 컨센서스 대비 서프라이즈(%) — 막대: EPS, 점선: 매출
컨센서스 대비 실제 EPS/매출 서프라이즈 (%)