Micron Technology
Micron Technology · Semiconductors (Memory)
01Wall Street Consensus
02Earnings Results
Key Takeaways
- EPS $25.11 (Non-GAAP) — +23.2% surprise vs $20.39 consensus; GAAP EPS $24.67
- Revenue $41.46B (+346% YoY, +74% QoQ) — roughly 4x in a year on surging memory prices, above $35.1B consensus
- GAAP gross margin 84.6%, operating margin 80.4% — both record quarterly highs
- Data center revenue exceeded $25B in the quarter — annualized run rate above $100B
- Record Q4 guidance of $50B revenue / $31 EPS / 86% gross margin directly rebuts the 'peak earnings' debate
- Cash dividend declared — reinforcing shareholder returns
- Shares jumped about +15% after the report (per CNBC)
Key Checkpoints
- 01HBM3e revenue — shipment volume and ASP for AI GPU memory
- 02DRAM pricing trends — supply/demand balance and margin impact
- 03NAND revenue recovery — enterprise SSD demand normalization
- 04Data Center DRAM mix — AI server content driving ASP uplift
- 05Gross margin expansion — 45%+ target from favorable memory pricing
- 06HBM market share vs SK Hynix and Samsung
Upside Catalysts
- HBM3e qualification at NVIDIA for Blackwell — volume ramp in progress
- DRAM pricing up 40-50% from cycle trough — strongest upcycle since 2021
- Data Center SSD demand recovering — enterprise refresh cycle underway
- Apple DRAM monopoly scenario could benefit Micron if Apple pays premium for guaranteed supply
- 1-beta DRAM node leadership — cost advantage per bit vs Samsung
Risk Factors
- Apple DRAM monopoly concerns — preferential supply deals could distort market pricing
- Memory cycle risk — DRAM/NAND oversupply could emerge in H2 2026
- SK Hynix HBM dominance — 50%+ market share limits Micron's AI premium capture
- China memory competition — CXMT expanding DRAM capacity at lower nodes
- Iran conflict pushing energy costs higher — fab operating costs increasing
EEPS History (Last 13 Quarters)
Actual EPS vs Consensus — Green Beat · Red Miss
1Results Summary
Micron posted FY2026 Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $25.11 (+23.2% vs $20.39 consensus) and revenue of $41.46B (+346% YoY, +74% QoQ), crushing expectations. GAAP EPS was $24.67.
Surging memory prices roughly quadrupled revenue in a single year, with AI data center demand lifting DRAM and HBM pricing simultaneously.
GAAP gross margin hit 84.6% and operating margin 80.4%, both record quarterly highs. Revenue, margins and EPS all came in above the high end of guidance.
2Q4 FY2026 Guidance — Record Outlook
Management guided Q4 FY2026 to record levels:
- Revenue: $50.0B ± $1.0B (well above consensus)
- Gross margin: ~86.0%
- EPS: $31.00 ± $1.00
- Quarterly capex: ~$10B / FY2026 capex: ~$27B (net of government incentives)
Revenue jumping from $41B to $50B in a single quarter while margins expand to 86% directly counters the 'peak earnings' narrative. Management's view that tight supply extends beyond 2027 underpins the guidance.
3Data Center Drives the Supercycle
The quarter's headline is that data center revenue topped $25B, an annualized run rate above $100B.
- AI server HBM and high-value DRAM demand pushed both price and volume higher
- Surging memory prices roughly quadrupled revenue year over year
- A cash dividend was declared, reinforcing shareholder returns
CEO Sanjay Mehrotra emphasized that 'memory remains central to AI infrastructure, and the market should stay tight beyond 2027.' Shares jumped about +15% after the print as the market embraced the record results and outlook.
SEPS 서프라이즈 히스토리
분기별 EPS 컨센서스 대비 서프라이즈(%) — 막대: EPS, 점선: 매출
컨센서스 대비 실제 EPS/매출 서프라이즈 (%)