Northrop Grumman
Northrop Grumman · Defense/Aerospace
01Wall Street Consensus
02Earnings Results
Key Takeaways
- EPS $6.14 (beat est. $6.08) — +85% YoY
- Revenue $9.88B (beat est. $9.84B) — +4% YoY
- Net Income $875M — +82% YoY
- Operating Margin 10% — +400bp YoY
- Aeronautics Systems +17%, OPM 9.3% (vs -6.5% prior year)
- B-21 stealth bomber production capacity up 25%
- Sentinel ICBM program accelerating
Key Checkpoints
- 01B-21 Raider stealth bomber — flight test progress and production transition timeline
- 02Sentinel (GBSD) ICBM program progress — core of US nuclear deterrence modernization
- 03Order backlog $85B+ expansion trend
- 04Space Systems revenue growth rate — SDA satellites, OPIR, missile tracking satellites
- 05Defense Systems segment ammunition and missile defense system demand
- 06Operating margin 12%+ achievement
Upside Catalysts
- Iran war massive tailwind (escalated 3/30~4/2): Trump primetime speech confirming extended strikes on energy facilities drives urgent demand for missile defense (IBCS), autonomous drones, and ISR systems - all NOC core competencies
- B-21 Raider production transition: US Air Force plans minimum 100 units at $700M+ per aircraft
- Sentinel GBSD: $100B+ US ICBM modernization providing multi-year stable revenue stream
- Hormuz Strait crisis: 35-40 nation multilateral summit with no resolution - sustained naval and aerial surveillance demand benefiting NOC space and ISR assets
- NATO allied defense demand: expanding autonomous weapons and ISR system exports as European defense spending surges
Risk Factors
- B-21 cost overrun: fixed-price contract means cost increases borne by NOC - margin pressure
- Sentinel ICBM schedule delays: Congressional scrutiny + cost overrun concerns creating program risk
- Iran war production capacity strain: Trump's 4/2 speech confirming 2-3 more weeks of energy facility strikes + Hormuz Strait crisis means sustained surge in demand for missile defense, ISR, and drone systems - production capacity may not keep pace
- Skilled workforce shortage: aerospace engineer and technician recruitment competition intensifying amid defense boom
- Government budget uncertainty: new program starts constrained under continuing resolution
EEPS History (Last 12 Quarters)
Actual EPS vs Consensus — Green Beat · Red Miss
1Final Assessment
Northrop Grumman is a defense company specializing in stealth, nuclear deterrence, and space defense, with multi-generational programs like B-21 Raider and Sentinel ICBM guaranteeing long-term growth. Consensus EPS $6.15, Revenue $10.8B.
The Iran war has entered a critical escalation phase (3/30~4/2): Trump's primetime address on 4/2 confirmed 2-3 more weeks of energy facility strikes, the Hormuz Strait crisis has triggered a 35-40 nation multilateral summit with no resolution, and global markets are in turmoil - KOSPI crashed -4.37% in a single day, S&P Q1 -4.2%. This environment is a structural tailwind for NOC: missile defense (IBCS), ISR, autonomous drones, and space-based surveillance are all NOC core competencies seeing unprecedented demand.
The backlog at $85B+ is poised to expand significantly as urgent supplemental defense appropriations are expected. While production capacity constraints remain a near-term bottleneck, the multi-year order visibility is the strongest it has been since the post-9/11 era.
2B-21 Raider & Aeronautics
B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber:
- US Air Force next-generation strategic bomber — successor to B-2 Spirit
- Minimum 100 units planned at $700M+ per aircraft
- First flight November 2023, additional flight testing through 2025-2026
- Production transition target: 2026-2027
- Risk: Fixed-price contract (LRIP Lot 1) means NOC bears cost overruns
Unmanned Aviation:
- X-47B-derived unmanned stealth drone technology
- MQ-4C Triton maritime surveillance drone
- CCA (Collaborative Combat Aircraft) autonomous fighter program participation
3Missile Defense & Space
Sentinel (GBSD) ICBM:
- US ICBM modernization program: replacing Minuteman III
- Total program cost: $100B+ (30+ years)
- Modernizing the ground-based leg of the nuclear triad
- Risk: Cost overruns + schedule delays drawing Congressional scrutiny
Space Systems:
- Next Gen OPIR: Missile warning satellite (partnership with Lockheed Martin)
- SDA Tranche 1/2: Low-orbit missile tracking satellite production
- JWST follow-on space telescope project participation
- Space defense revenue: 10%+ annual growth trend
Iran Conflict Impact:
- IBCS (Integrated Battle Command System): Serving as the brain of Patriot+THAAD integrated systems
- ISR assets: Surging intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance demand across the Middle East theater
SEPS 서프라이즈 히스토리
분기별 EPS 컨센서스 대비 서프라이즈(%) — 막대: EPS, 점선: 매출
컨센서스 대비 실제 EPS/매출 서프라이즈 (%)