ON Semiconductor
ON Semiconductor · Power Semiconductors (SiC)
01Wall Street Consensus
02Earnings Results
Key Takeaways
- Non-GAAP EPS $0.64 — beat consensus $0.61 by +5.0%
- Revenue $1.513B — beat consensus $1.49B by +0.9%, -1% QoQ
- AI data center revenue +30% QoQ — accelerating
- Gross margin 38.5% — manufacturing efficiency improving
- Q2 2026 revenue guide $1.535-1.635B — +5% QoQ midpoint
- Q2 2026 non-GAAP EPS guide $0.65-0.77 — operating leverage signal
- Industrial and auto remain weak; AI/DC is carrying results
- Long-term guide unchanged; memory cycle and tariff effects flagged
Key Checkpoints
- 01Silicon Carbide (SiC) revenue — EV traction inverter and onboard charger wins
- 02Automotive revenue — EV vs ICE content growth
- 03Industrial revenue recovery — energy infrastructure and factory automation
- 04Gross margin trajectory — 45%+ target from SiC mix improvement
- 05SiC market share vs Wolfspeed, STMicroelectronics, Infineon
- 06China automotive OEM design wins (BYD, Li Auto, etc.)
Upside Catalysts
- SiC revenue doubling trajectory — EV adoption is delayed, not cancelled
- Energy infrastructure demand — solar inverters, grid storage, data center power
- Intelligent sensing (image sensors) for automotive ADAS growing
- Iran conflict: High oil prices historically accelerate EV adoption long-term
- EliteSiC 200mm wafer production reducing costs and improving competitiveness
Risk Factors
- EV growth moderation — slower BEV adoption reducing SiC near-term demand
- SiC pricing pressure from Wolfspeed and Chinese SiC competitors
- Inventory correction in industrial semiconductor markets lingering
- Iran conflict driving oil to $107+ — mixed impact on EV adoption narrative
- China competition: SICC and TankeBlue expanding SiC substrate capacity
1Final Verdict
ON Semiconductor is a leading Silicon Carbide (SiC) power semiconductor company targeting the EV and energy infrastructure transition. Consensus EPS $0.85, Revenue $1.75B. The company is navigating a challenging transition period — EV growth is moderating near-term while SiC capacity is expanding.
The Iran conflict's oil price impact ($107+ Brent) creates an interesting dynamic — higher gasoline prices historically accelerate EV adoption over a 12-24 month horizon, which would benefit ON's SiC business. Near-term, however, macro uncertainty is causing automakers to defer orders.
ON's EliteSiC 200mm production is a critical competitive advantage — larger wafers reduce die cost by 30%+, positioning ON to win on both performance and price vs competitors.
2SiC & Automotive
Silicon Carbide (SiC):
- Revenue target: $2B+ by 2027 (from ~$1B in 2025)
- Applications: EV traction inverters, onboard chargers, DC-DC converters
- EliteSiC 200mm: Cost advantage from industry-first 200mm SiC wafer production
- Market share: #2 globally (behind STMicroelectronics, ahead of Infineon)
Automotive Revenue:
- ~50% of total revenue
- EV content per vehicle: $500-800 in SiC + power modules
- ICE content per vehicle: $50-100 — 10x content uplift from EV transition
- Design wins: Major global OEMs + China EV makers (BYD, NIO, Li Auto)
EV Market Dynamics:
- BEV growth slowing: 20%+ to ~15% YoY in 2026
- PHEV and HEV also use SiC — total electrified vehicle market still growing
- High oil prices ($107+ Brent) from Iran conflict could reaccelerate BEV demand
3Industrial & Outlook
Industrial Segment:
- Solar inverters: SiC enables higher efficiency and smaller form factor
- Grid-scale energy storage: Growing demand for power conversion
- Factory automation: Motor drives, power supplies
- Revenue: Recovering from 2024-2025 inventory correction
Intelligent Sensing:
- CMOS image sensors for automotive ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance)
- Content growth as Level 2+ autonomy becomes standard
- Competition: Sony dominates, but ON has strong automotive positioning
Financial Trajectory:
- Gross margin: 45%+ target (up from 40% at trough)
- SiC mix improvement driving margin expansion
- Capex: $1.5B+ for SiC capacity expansion
- Long-term model: $10B+ revenue with 50%+ gross margins at SiC maturity
SEPS 서프라이즈 히스토리
분기별 EPS 컨센서스 대비 서프라이즈(%) — 막대: EPS, 점선: 매출
컨센서스 대비 실제 EPS/매출 서프라이즈 (%)