Tesla Inc.
Tesla Inc. · EV/Energy
01Wall Street Consensus
02Earnings Results
Key Takeaways
- Adj. EPS $0.41 (beat est. $0.37) — Surprise
- Revenue $22.39B (missed est. $22.64B) — Slight miss
- Gross Margin 21.1% — +478bp YoY, +100bp QoQ
- Auto Revenue $16.2B — +16% YoY
- Energy Revenue $2.41B — -12% YoY
- Deliveries 358,023 — ~7,600 units below expectations
- Capex $2.49B — +67% YoY, FY raised to $25B+
Key Checkpoints
- 01Q1 deliveries — seasonal decline from Q4 2025 495K (consensus ~460K)
- 02Automotive Gross Margin recovery — Q4 2025 17.9% vs 20%+ target
- 03Energy Storage revenue — growth continuation from Q4 $3.06B (Megapack demand)
- 04FSD V13 subscription revenue + robotaxi progress update
- 05Model Q (affordable) launch timeline confirmation
- 06Optimus robot commercialization timeline
Upside Catalysts
- Oil price shock accelerates EV transition: Brent $107+ and Iran war threatening Hormuz Strait (35-40 nation summit, no resolution) are the strongest macro argument for EV adoption since 2022 - Tesla as the scale leader is the primary medium-term beneficiary
- Robotaxi: Expanding driverless testing in Austin TX, targeting H2 2026 commercial service launch
- Energy Storage high growth: Megapack targeting 100GWh+ annually, 25%+ margin as highest-profit segment - Iran war highlighting energy security importance
- Model Q affordable ($25K): H2 2026 launch to maximize volume + expand TAM
- FSD V13: Significantly improved uninterrupted driving distance, expected subscription conversion rate increase
Risk Factors
- EV competition intensifying: China BYD Q4 deliveries 590K surpassing Tesla, European market share declining
- Margin pressure: continued price cuts + raw material (lithium/nickel) cost rebound clouding Gross Margin recovery
- Iran war short-term pain: Brent crude $107+, WTI $104+ - near-term consumer sentiment devastation (S&P Q1 -4.2%, KOSPI -4.37% crash) delays EV purchases as households prioritize essentials over new vehicle spending
- CEO political risk: Elon Musk DOGE controversy damaging brand image, alienating European and progressive consumers
- Regulatory risk: EU carbon credit revenue declining + potential US EV tax credit reduction
EEPS History (Last 13 Quarters)
Actual EPS vs Consensus — Green Beat · Red Miss
1Final Assessment
Tesla Q1 FY2026 is a seasonally weak quarter, but Energy Storage high growth and FSD progress are the key focus areas. Consensus EPS $0.28, Revenue $25.3B, Deliveries ~460K expected.
The Iran war creates a dramatic dual dynamic for Tesla. Short-term pain is severe: with Brent crude surging past $107 (Trump's 4/2 primetime speech confirmed 2-3 more weeks of energy facility strikes, Hormuz Strait crisis unresolved), consumer sentiment has cratered - S&P Q1 -4.2%, KOSPI -4.37% single-day crash. Households facing $4+ gasoline are less likely to spend $40K+ on a new vehicle in the near term.
However, the medium-to-long-term thesis is powerfully reinforced: $107+ oil is the strongest macro argument for ICE-to-EV transition since the 2022 energy crisis. Once consumer shock subsides, Tesla's position as the only EV maker with scale manufacturing, a supercharger network, and an affordable Model Q ($25K, H2 2026) makes it the primary structural beneficiary of accelerating EV adoption. The Automotive Gross Margin recovery trajectory (17.9% toward 20%+) remains the key valuation determinant.
2EV Market & Competitive Landscape
Q1 2026 Delivery Outlook:
- Consensus: ~460K (down -7% QoQ from Q4 2025 495K)
- Continued Model Y refresh effect vs seasonal weakness
- Model 3 Highland expanding global sales
Competitive Landscape:
- BYD: Q4 2025 deliveries of 590K surpassing Tesla, global expansion with Atto 3/Seal
- Hyundai/Kia: Expanding EV lineup gaining European market share
- European market: Tesla market share on a declining trend — brand image + local competition intensifying
Pricing Strategy:
- 2025 full-year ASP decline of ~5-8%
- Model Q ($25K) H2 2026 launch expected to penetrate affordable segment
3Energy Storage & Beyond Auto
Energy Storage:
- Q4 2025: Revenue $3.06B — quarterly all-time record
- Megapack deployment: 11.2GWh (Q4), 40GWh+ annually
- 2026 target: 100GWh+ production capacity
- Gross Margin 25%+ — higher profitability than Automotive
- Iran conflict highlighting energy security importance — structurally increasing battery storage demand
FSD & Robotaxi:
- FSD V13: Significant improvement in uninterrupted driving distance
- Expanding driverless testing in Austin TX
- Targeting H2 2026 commercial robotaxi service
- Subscription conversion improvement is key to high-margin software revenue expansion
Optimus Robot:
- Expanding pilot operations within factories
- Commercialization expected 2027-2028+
SEPS 서프라이즈 히스토리
분기별 EPS 컨센서스 대비 서프라이즈(%) — 막대: EPS, 점선: 매출
컨센서스 대비 실제 EPS/매출 서프라이즈 (%)