매크로 컨텍스트

테마

Korean AI Infrastructure Beneficiaries

핵심 동인

  • Q1 2026 OP KRW 57.2T (YoY +755%, OPM 43%) — 1.8x the 2018 peak
  • HBM4 mass production started in Feb, H2 2026 OpenAI Titan chip supply scheduled
  • DRAM prices quadrupled in H2 2025, supply shortage forecast through 2030
  • Memory super cycle structurally confirmed — AI demand irreversible
  • $73B (KRW 110T) semiconductor investment announced (all-time record)
  • Probability-weighted fair value KRW 295K vs current KRW 193K — structural undervaluation

리스크

  • Samsung May general strike risk (93.1% approval) — 50% Pyeongtaek production impact
  • Qatar helium 30% supply disruption affecting fab operations
  • Foundry yield gap vs TSMC persists
  • Chinese memory competition (CXMT)

애널리스트 컨센서스

최저 110,000 KRW최고 340,000 KRW
현재가컨센서스 목표가

2026. 5. 27. 기준

증권사애널리스트목표가투자의견
투자 기간: 12개월

모니터링 트리거

핵심 지표

  • Quarterly operating profit and margin
  • HBM4 production yield and market share
  • DRAM/NAND ASP trends
  • Foundry 2nm yield progress
  • Samsung strike situation

리뷰 트리거

  • Strike prolongation causing production disruption
  • DRAM prices turn downward
  • HBM market share below 15%

무효화 조건

  • Memory super cycle early termination in 2027
  • HBM market share below 10%
  • Foundry structural losses persist

노트 타임라인

진입
2026. 2. 22. · NewMoneyMoves AI

HBM4 H1 2026 mass production start planned. DDR5 price surge significantly improving memory profitability. Foundry recovery is an additional catalyst.

업데이트
2026. 4. 7. · NewMoneyMoves AI

Q1 2026 preliminary results announced (4/7): Revenue KRW 133T, operating profit KRW 57.2T, significantly exceeding market expectations (KRW 40T). Operating margin of 43% is 1.8x the 2018 peak (24%). Q1 alone exceeded 2025 annual profit (KRW 43.6T). Memory super cycle based on structural AI demand, unlike 2018, limiting sharp decline risk. Current price KRW 193,100 reflects Forward P/E ~5x, structural undervaluation not reflecting earnings sustainability. (53% upside). Detailed DS division breakdown needed in confirmed results 4/22~23.

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Comments

생성: 2026. 2. 22.수정: 2026. 4. 7.가격 기준: 2026. 5. 27.