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Weekly Market Review: Week 37 (September Week 2)

KOSPI rose 4.61% on September 7 while US markets were shut for Labor Day and reclaimed 7,000 on a closing basis on September 9 for the first time in 33 sessions, but West Texas Intermediate passed 100 dollars on September 10 and the US 10-year yield climbed to 4.94%, pushing the index down over the final two sessions to a weekly gain of 3.33%

HHaelangdal·Founder AnalystSeptember 12, 202616 min readWeekly Review
Bottom Line

This week's KOSPI gain was built in the first two sessions and partly erased in the last two. The gains were +4.61% on September 7 and +1.40% on September 9; the giveback was -0.25% on September 10 and -1.76% on September 11. Monday's rise traced to expectations for AI semiconductor demand. US markets were shut for Labor Day, only Korea traded, and Nvidia's Hugging Face acquisition and OpenAI's new model launch from the previous week fed expectations of stronger memory demand. Foreign investors bought a net 2.5532 trillion won and institutions 2.6491 trillion won. The declines on Thursday and Friday traced to oil and rates. West Texas Intermediate closed above 100 dollars at 102.48 on September 10 and the US 10-year yield reached 4.94%. US August core consumer prices, released on Friday, rose 0.3% on the month, 0.1 percentage point above forecast. Across the week other corporations bought more than 1.6 trillion won on every one of the five sessions, 8.4906 trillion won in total, while foreign investors sold a net 2.1701 trillion won. For the week KOSPI rose 3.33% and all three major US averages fell.

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Reader's Brief — 30-second TL;DR

Intermediate
Why Now

9/7 US Labor Day holiday, KOSPI +4.61% (6,995.39, +308.18 points), SK Hynix +8.26% (1,783,000 won), Samsung Electronics +5.68% (270,000 won), foreign investors buying 2.5532 trillion won and institutions 2.6491 trillion won against individual selling of 6.8374 trillion won -> 9/8 KOSPI opens at 7,045.79, reaches 7,171.52 intraday and closes -0.58% (6,954.52), individuals sell 3.0329 trillion won, US-Canada retaliatory tariffs take effect, S&P 500 -0.58% (7,673.52), Dow -628.18 points, Brent 99.22 dollars, AMD +5.90% (505.74 dollars) -> 9/9 KOSPI +1.40% (7,051.64), the first close above 7,000 in 33 sessions, institutions buying 942.2 billion won against foreign selling of 434.8 billion won, SK Hynix +3.51% (1,856,000 won), LG Energy Solution +6.46%, the Seoul daytime close at 1,336.1 won, the US 10-year at 4.84%, Brent 101.21 dollars -> 9/10 West Texas Intermediate +6.69% (102.48 dollars) through 100 dollars, Brent 107.63 dollars, the US 10-year at 4.94%, volatility index 17.84, foreign net selling of 2.6217 trillion won, KOSPI -0.25% (7,033.92), a fourth straight decline for the S&P 500 -> 9/11 US August consumer prices +0.4% monthly and +3.4% annually with core at +0.3% monthly, 0.1 percentage point above forecast, KOSPI -1.76% (6,909.91, -124.01 points), foreign net selling of 2.2984 trillion won and institutional selling of 1.2184 trillion won, Samsung Electronics -3.53% (259,500 won), SK Hynix -2.21% (1,812,000 won), S&P 500 +0.86% (7,656.98), volatility index 15.84

Winners ?? Losers

Up - SK Hynix +10.02% for the week (1,647,000 to 1,812,000 won), West Texas Intermediate +9.37% (91.48 to 100.05 dollars), AMD +8.07% (477.57 to 516.13 dollars), KOSPI +3.33% (6,687.21 to 6,909.91), Samsung Electronics +1.57% (255,500 to 259,500 won), Broadcom +1.14%, TSMC +1.01%, KOSDAQ +0.88% (813.50 to 820.64). Down - Nvidia -5.24% (230.36 to 218.29 dollars), Micron -4.07%, bitcoin -3.09% (79,672 to 77,209 dollars), the Dow -1.57%, the S&P 500 -0.80%, the Nasdaq -0.66%. In a week when Korean memory names and crude oil rose, the largest US AI accelerator name fell.

Watch For

Reading depth

Mon 9/7 - KOSPI Rises 4.61% on a US Holiday

On September 7 KOSPI closed at 6,995.39, up 308.18 points. The gain was 4.61%, leaving the index 4.61 points below 7,000.

There was no US session behind it

The New York Stock Exchange Nasdaq were both closed for Day. With no overnight move in US indices, Korea traded alone. What the index priced was material already public from the previous week.

One piece was Nvidia's acquisition of Hugging Face, announced on September 3 at 12.9 billion dollars. The other was OpenAI's new model launch on September 4. Read together, the two raised expectations that inference compute would grow and memory demand would grow with it.

What rose was semiconductors

SK Hynix closed at 1,783,000 won, up 8.26%, and Samsung Electronics at 270,000 won, up 5.68%. SK Square rose 8.07%. KOSDAQ closed at 822.19, up 1.07%.

Flows had foreign investors and institutions buying together. Foreign investors bought a net 2.5532 trillion won and institutions 2.6491 trillion won, while individuals sold 6.8374 trillion won. bought 1.6352 trillion won.

The index opened at 6,910.78 and closed at an intraday high of 6,995.40, with the close 0.01 points from the day's high. Buying ran to the bell.

The Middle East was moving the other way at the same time

Over the weekend the United States struck Iranian tankers and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed strikes on vessels. Brent had climbed to a six-week high. That material began to reach the Korean index three sessions later.

KOSPI's 4.61% gain on September 7 is larger than its 3.33% gain for the full week. That single session covered the net of the other four.

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This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Investment decisions should be made based on your own judgment and responsibility. The analysis and opinions contained herein are based on information available at the time of writing and are subject to change.

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