NVIDIA Corporation
NVIDIA Corporation · Semiconductors (AI GPU)
01Wall Street Consensus
02Earnings Results
Key Takeaways
- Revenue $81.6B (+85% YoY, +20% QoQ) — record quarter
- Non-GAAP EPS $1.87 (+140% YoY) / GAAP EPS $2.39
- Data center revenue $75.25B (+92% YoY, +21% QoQ) — Blackwell full ramp
- Q2 FY27 revenue guide $91B — vs consensus $86.84B (+5% beat)
- New Vera CPU announced — $200B TAM, $20B revenue target this year (CFO)
- Dividend raised 25x — $0.01 → $0.25/share (effective 6/26)
- $80B fresh buyback authorized (on top of $38.5B remaining)
- FCF $48.55B — record quarterly FCF
- After-hours -1.8% — despite triple beat + raised guide + Vera + 25x dividend + $80B buyback, the expectations-ceiling pattern continues (third quarter in a row)
Key Checkpoints
- 01Data Center revenue — $45B+ expected, Blackwell B200/B100 ramp contribution
- 02Blackwell GPU shipment volumes and gross margin impact
- 03China revenue under tightened export controls — magnitude of decline
- 04Networking (Spectrum-X, InfiniBand) revenue growth as AI cluster backbone
- 05Gross margin trajectory — Blackwell ramp initially dilutive vs Hopper margins
- 06FY2027 full-year revenue guidance — Street expecting $220B+
Upside Catalysts
- Blackwell Ultra (B300) and next-gen Rubin architecture announcements extending roadmap
- Sovereign AI: Government-funded national AI clusters driving non-hyperscaler demand
- CUDA ecosystem moat — 4M+ developers, 800+ AI frameworks optimized for NVIDIA
- Networking (Spectrum-X Ethernet) becoming a $15B+ annual revenue opportunity
- AI inference demand scaling exponentially — model deployment growing faster than training
Risk Factors
- Google TurboQuant custom ASIC — direct threat to merchant GPU dominance at hyperscalers
- Gross margin pressure: Blackwell ramp at lower initial yields vs mature Hopper production
- China export restrictions: $5B+ annual revenue at risk from tightened controls
- Customer concentration: Top 4 hyperscalers represent 40%+ of Data Center revenue
- Apple DRAM monopoly risk — HBM3e supply competition could constrain Blackwell production
EEPS History (Last 14 Quarters)
Actual EPS vs Consensus — Green Beat · Red Miss
1Final Verdict
NVIDIA enters FY2027 Q1 as the undisputed AI infrastructure leader with Blackwell ramping at unprecedented scale. Consensus EPS $1.05, Revenue $52B. The critical question is whether Blackwell's ramp can sustain the hyper-growth trajectory amid emerging custom ASIC competition.
The Google TurboQuant shock represents the most significant competitive threat — if hyperscalers accelerate custom silicon, NVIDIA's TAM could be capped. However, CUDA's 4M+ developer ecosystem and the complexity of training frontier models remain powerful moats.
Apple's DRAM monopoly concerns around HBM supply add another variable. If HBM3e supply is constrained, Blackwell production could face bottlenecks. Despite these risks, NVIDIA's $220B+ FY2027 revenue trajectory reflects demand that remains far ahead of supply.
2Blackwell & Data Center
Blackwell GPU Platform:
- B200/B100: 4x training performance vs H100 at similar power
- GB200 NVL72: 72-GPU rack-scale system for largest AI models
- Ramp: Production since Q4 2025, volume scaling through H1 2026
- Initial gross margin: ~70% (vs Hopper mature ~78%), expected to improve with yield
Data Center Revenue:
- Q4 FY2026: $40.2B (+65% YoY)
- FY2027 Q1 target: $45B+ as Blackwell mix increases
- Customer mix: Hyperscalers (40%+), enterprise (25%), sovereign AI (15%), China-compliant (10%)
Google TurboQuant Response:
- Custom ASICs address narrow workloads — NVIDIA GPUs remain general-purpose AI accelerators
- Hyperscalers using custom chips for inference still need NVIDIA for training
- NVIDIA's response: Deeper software integration (NIM, CUDA libraries) raising switching costs
3Supply Chain & Competition
HBM Supply:
- Blackwell requires 8-12 HBM3e stacks per GPU — massive memory demand
- SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron all ramping HBM3e production
- Apple DRAM monopoly concern: If Apple secures preferential supply for on-device AI, HBM could tighten
- NVIDIA securing long-term supply agreements to mitigate risk
China Export Controls:
- H20/L20 compliant chips filling some demand, but at lower ASPs
- Revenue impact: $5-8B annual foregone revenue from restrictions
- Chinese competitors (Huawei Ascend) gaining share in domestic market
Iran Conflict Impact:
- Indirect: Rising energy costs ($107+ Brent) increasing data center operating costs
- Potential positive: Defense and intelligence AI spending accelerating
- Macro uncertainty could slow enterprise AI adoption while hyperscaler capex remains resilient
SEPS 서프라이즈 히스토리
분기별 EPS 컨센서스 대비 서프라이즈(%) — 막대: EPS, 점선: 매출
컨센서스 대비 실제 EPS/매출 서프라이즈 (%)