Released
FY2026 Q1
Earnings ReviewTSM
BEATTSMC
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing · Semiconductor Foundry
Thu, April 16, 2026·Before Market Open
TSMCFoundryAI InfrastructureCoWoSAdvanced ProcessEarnings
01Wall Street Consensus
EPS$3.26
Revenue$35.2B
02Company Guidance
EPS~$3.26 ADR
Revenue$34.6B-$35.8B
03Earnings Results
EPS$3.49+7.1%
Revenue$35.6B+1.1%
After-Hours Reaction+2.5% (intraday)
Key Takeaways
- Net profit NT$572.48B — +58.3% YoY, all-time high
- EPS NT$22.08 (ADR $3.49) — Beat consensus NT$20.88
- Revenue NT$1.134T ($35.6B) — +35% YoY growth
- Advanced nodes (sub-3nm) 75% of wafer revenue
- HPC (AI/5G) 61% of revenue
- 3nm process 25% of wafer revenue
- Raised 2026 revenue guidance to 30%+ growth
- Q2 revenue guidance $39-40.2B, GPM 65.5-67.5%
- 2026 CapEx towards high end of $52-56B
Key Checkpoints
- 01Q1 revenue $34.6-35.8B guidance achievement (Jan-Feb tracking +29.9% YoY)
- 02Gross Margin 63-65% — TSMC's historically highest guidance range
- 03N3 (3nm) wafer revenue share breaking 30%
- 04N2 (2nm) production ramp progress (40K to 100K wafers/month target)
- 05CoWoS capacity update (130K wafers/month year-end target)
- 06FY2026 annual revenue growth rate ~30% guidance raise potential
Upside Catalysts
- NVIDIA Rubin transition: N4P to N3P boosts wafer ASP + premium mix improvement
- Apple DRAM monopoly (4/3) = strong mobile signal: Apple buying all available mobile DRAM confirms robust iPhone/iPad/Mac demand - directly benefits TSMC's N3/N5 mobile SoC wafer volumes
- CoWoS logic packaging demand remains robust: even with TurboQuant reducing HBM needs, AI accelerator logic die packaging on CoWoS continues growing as model sizes increase
- N2 customer expansion: Early AMD/Qualcomm N2 tape-outs could provide margin upside
- Arizona tariff exemption deal: Formalization of tariff exemption tied to $165B investment would remove overhang
Risk Factors
- Tariff risk: Trump administration threatens 100% tariff on Taiwan-made semiconductors. Currently negotiating 15%
- Geopolitical risk: China PLA 2027 Taiwan scenario preparation reports. 90% of global advanced chip production concentrated in Taiwan
- Google TurboQuant impact on CoWoS: AI memory compression reducing HBM demand 10-50% could slow CoWoS-related advanced packaging orders, as HBM is a key CoWoS component - though logic packaging demand remains robust
- Customer concentration: Top 10 customers account for ~80% of revenue. NVIDIA+Apple alone 40%+
- Arizona fab costs: 30-50% higher construction costs vs Taiwan, workforce pipeline constraints
- Iran war disrupting global supply chains - rising logistics costs and energy price spikes pressuring CapEx efficiency
Detail
EEPS History (Last 13 Quarters)
Actual EPS vs Consensus — Green Beat · Red Miss
Beat12
Miss0
Beat rate100%
1Earnings Summary
TSMC (TSM) Q1 2026 Earnings Released.
EPS: NT$22.08 (ADR $3.49) — +7.1% vs consensus Revenue: NT$1.134T ($35.6B) — +35% YoY Net Profit: NT$572.48B — +58.3% YoY, all-time record
Strong AI chip demand with HPC at 61% of revenue. Raised 2026 revenue guidance to 30%+ growth.
2Key Insights
1. Maximizing AI Supercycle Benefits
- Advanced nodes (sub-3nm) 75% of wafer revenue
- NVIDIA, Apple AI accelerator demand surging
- HPC (High Performance Computing) at 61%
2. Strong Guidance
- Q2 revenue $39-40.2B (q-q +10%)
- FY2026 revenue growth 30%+
- CapEx $52-56B, aggressive investment continues
3. Limited Geopolitical Risk
- Management confirms no supply chain impact from Middle East conflict
- Taiwan earthquake impact also minimal
Detail
SEPS 서프라이즈 히스토리
Beat13Miss0Beat률 100%
분기별 EPS 컨센서스 대비 서프라이즈(%) — 막대: EPS, 점선: 매출
컨센서스 대비 실제 EPS/매출 서프라이즈 (%)