Walmart
Walmart Inc. · Retail (Omnichannel / Marketplace)
01Wall Street Consensus
02Earnings Results
※ Adjusted EPS $0.81 (GAAP $0.80) excludes, net of tax, a $0.12 net loss on equity and other investments and a $0.11 net benefit from a certain tax matter. Revenue rose 5.1% in constant currency; operating income rose 17.4% on an adjusted constant-currency basis.
Key Takeaways
- Revenue $187.9B (+5.9%, +5.1% constant currency) — above the $186.77B consensus
- Adjusted EPS $0.81 (GAAP $0.80) — 9.5% above the $0.74 consensus
- Operating income +28.8% (+17.4% adjusted constant currency) — reflects tariff refunds received, partly offset by price investments
- Walmart U.S. comp sales +2.6% — below the +3.7% consensus, including a 125 bps drag from maximum fair price drug deflation
- Walmart U.S. transactions +1.5% (prior year +1.5%); average ticket +1.1% (prior year +3.1%)
- Global eCommerce +23% — Walmart U.S. +24%, International +19%, Sam's Club +26%
- Global advertising +38%; Walmart Connect ex-VIZIO +43%; membership fee revenue +17%
- Gross profit rate +96 bps; Walmart U.S. +158 bps — tariff refunds and mix, partly offset by price investments and fuel
- Sam's Club comp sales +4.4% — transactions +7.0%, average ticket -2.5%
- International net sales +12.8% (+7.9% constant currency); operating income +16.6% (+5.7% constant currency)
- Operating cash flow $19.7B (+$1.4B); free cash flow $5.5B (-$1.4B); inventory $61.6B (+6.7%)
- Q3 adjusted EPS guidance $0.62-$0.64 against a $0.62 prior-year base; net sales +3.0% to +3.75%
- FY27 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $2.80-$2.87 from $2.75-$2.85; capex to ~4.0% of net sales from ~3.5%
Key Checkpoints
- 01Walmart U.S. comp sales — drag from drug-price deflation
- 02Contribution of tariff refunds to operating income
- 03Size of the Q3 and full-year guidance raise
- 04Advertising and membership fee growth
- 05Capital expenditure plan as a percentage of net sales
Upside Catalysts
- eCommerce growth rate
- High-margin revenue from advertising and membership
- Walmart+ net adds
Risk Factors
- Tariff refunds are non-recurring and are being spent on second-half price investments
- Slowing average ticket
- Health and wellness deflation from maximum fair price regulation
EEPS History (Last 2 Quarters)
Actual EPS vs Consensus — Green Beat · Red Miss
1Haelangdal Read
Tariff refunds ran through the quarter's income statement. Operating income grew 28.8%, but on an adjusted constant-currency basis it grew 17.4%, and the company said that setting the refund impact aside, underlying operating income growth landed at the top end of its guidance. The prior guidance issued in May assumed no tariff refund impact at all.
The giveback arrives next quarter. Q3 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.62 to $0.64 sits essentially level with the $0.62 prior-year base, and adjusted operating income is guided to grow 2.0% to 4.0%. That outlook assumes the remaining refunds go into second-half price investments. The CFO said to consider Q2 and Q3 together.
Walmart U.S. comp sales grew 2.6%. Of that, 125 basis points was drug-price deflation from the maximum fair price regulation effective in January. Transactions grew 1.5%, matching the prior year, while average ticket slowed to 1.1% from 3.1%. At Sam's Club transactions grew 7.0% while average ticket fell 2.5%.
Full-year adjusted EPS guidance moved to $2.80-$2.87 from $2.75-$2.85. In the same release the capital expenditure plan moved to 4.0% of net sales from 3.5%. Operating cash flow rose $1.4 billion to $19.7 billion while free cash flow fell $1.4 billion to $5.5 billion.
If the earnings surprise came from refunds and those refunds are being returned as price, the second-quarter numbers only become comparable once they are added to the third quarter.
SEPS 서프라이즈 히스토리
분기별 EPS 컨센서스 대비 서프라이즈(%) — 막대: EPS, 점선: 매출
컨센서스 대비 실제 EPS/매출 서프라이즈 (%)