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Editor-picked. From series openers to the latest deep dives.
Begin from Part 1, build up
8 ongoing series — tap Part 1 to enter the full series
FOMO Trap Series
Latest part 2: 조정 안 기다린 자도 일부 익절할 시점 — FOMO 트랩 후속
Memory Big 3 Saga
Latest part 3: RAMpocalypse — What Happens After the Memory Big-3 Leave
Iran-Middle East Crisis Analysis
Latest part 5: Iran-US War and Global Markets — The Complete Investor's Guide
Optical & CPO Cycle
Latest part 3: Optical Bottleneck: Why Lumentum and Coherent Are the Real Choke Points
Weekly Market Review
Latest part 10: Weekly Market Review: Week 18 (May Week 1)
Intel Q1 Semiconductor Shortage Saga
Latest part 2: The All-Front Semi Shortage Confirmed by Intel Q1
KOSPI Path Analysis Series
Latest part 2: KOSPI 10,000 Path Analysis
Global Semiconductor CapEx Cycle Series
Latest part 1: 글로벌 반도체 CapEx 사이클 Part 1 — 매크로 분해
Samsung +16% (KRW 270,000) hit all-time high, SK hynix surged in tandem — semiconductor rally exploded.
Trump announced 'Project Freedom' pause; oil gave back most of the April spike.
Following +5.5% AH the prior day, AMD surged further as AI GPU diversification gains traction.
KOSPI 7,384.56 (+6.45%) smashed through 7,000 for the first time — Samsung +16% joins the $1T club. US-Iran deal imminent sent WTI -4.1% to $100; S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit fresh records.
AMD +20% and ARM +23% surged.
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The Memory Pickaxe of This AI Gold Rush, Revisited
The end of this AI gold rush cycle is not set by memory — the pickaxe of this rush. It is set by the miners, the hyperscalers. Memory prices climbing and inventories at multi-year lows are not peak signals. They are signals that the miners are still buying more pickaxes. Big Four 2026 CapEx +77% YoY to $725B; Jefferies estimates 92% of operating cash flow goes to CapEx, of which 28% to memory; multi-year LTAs with 10-30% prepayments and floor-price clauses. To time the cycle's end, watch token cost decay and big-tech bond spreads — not memory prices.
Optical Bottleneck: Why Lumentum and Coherent Are the Real Choke Points
Lumentum and Coherent sit at the narrowest optical bottleneck in the 1.6T, 200G EML and CPO transition. Next week's earnings are the first public test of whether the AI data-center optical cycle is a generic recovery or a true bottleneck premium. The key is not headline beats, but 200G EML orders, 1.6T guidance and Datacenter/Components mix.
글로벌 반도체 CapEx 사이클 Part 1 — 매크로 분해
글로벌 반도체 CapEx 사이클이 TSMC 2나노 5개 fab 동시 가동 + 메모리 3사 (SK하이닉스 청주·인디애나·용인, 삼성 평택 P4·P5, 마이크론 Idaho·NY·Singapore) 동시 케파 확장 + 소부장 3중 발주 사이클로 진입했다. TSMC SoIC 어드밴스드 패키징 CAGR이 가장 빠르며, 한국 한미반도체 TC본더·HPSP 고압 어닐링이 점유율 50%+ 1차 수혜 사업자로 식별된다. 일본은 디스코·아드반테스트·도쿄일렉트론·신에츠·JSR이 핵심. 사이클 정점은 2027 H2~2028 H1로 추정, Part 2(한국)·Part 3(일본)에서 종목별 심층 IC 메모로 이어진다.
Every Market the Memory Big-Three Are Leaving
The combined size of markets the memory big-three have either EOL'd or sharply curtailed runs to roughly $40~50B per year on a conservative basis, with the trio holding 93% of LPDDR4X and 80%+ of nearly every segment outside NOR Flash. We map the eight followers stepping into those seats (Nanya, Winbond, Simmtech, Daeduck, Hana Micron, SFA Semicon, FADU, Jeju Semicon), their 2024→2025 revenue/OP shifts, and 2026E street-consensus-based P/OP multiples (Hana Micron 9.9~10.3x, Simmtech 12.2~14.5x, Daeduck 25.8~39.7x) — using only primary-source verified facts. An appendix explains, on the process side, why the decision is hard to reverse: the HBM 3:1 wafer-conversion ratio, SK hynix's fab-by-fab role map, and the capacity constraint facing followers.
The Triple Power Chain of Agentic Transition
The Agentic AI transition is not a simple compute-demand growth cycle. Sub-agent parallelism (token/memory I/O 10-100× explosion) + copper scale-up limits + Jevons Paradox operate simultaneously, binding gas turbine backlogs (GEV 80GW), CPO ramp (2026 commercial year one, Coherent SAM $9.5B→$21B), and BYOP gas (~14GW disclosed contracts) into a single beneficiary chain. Presents GE Vernova, Coherent, Fabrinet, Tower Semi, NVIDIA, and Neocloud as a unified investment frame. Bull/Base/Bear scenarios intentionally carry no probability assignments.
![Ship Engines × Data Center Power [Revised]](/_next/image?url=%2Fimages%2Freports%2Fcovers%2Fenergy-power.jpg&w=3840&q=75&dpl=dpl_EkzZjQ6RzE5jmW5rUYeDnmSYM8o4)
Ship Engines × Data Center Power [Revised]
On 2026.4.22, HD Hyundai Heavy Industries signed a contract with US AEG to supply 34 units of 20MW HiMSEN engines (684MW, KRW 627.1B) — Korea's first entry into the US data center power supply chain. With gas turbines sold out through 2029, transformers at 3–5 year lead times, and Time-to-Power emerging as the key bottleneck, ship-engine 4-stroke medium-speed technology has risen as the core bridge-power axis. The report maps role differentiation across Korea's 4 engine makers (HD Hyundai Heavy, STX Engine, HD Hyundai Marine Engine, Hanwha Engine) and positions HiMSEN as Korea's sole proprietary-IP representative. Scenarios are trigger-based; no probability-weighted targets are produced.
Company Reports
Samsung Electronics Q1 2026: KRW 57.2T Operating Profit Rewrites History
Samsung Electronics achieved Q1 2026 preliminary results with revenue of KRW 133T and operating profit of KRW 57.2T (YoY +755%), marking all-time record earnings. Operating margin reached ~43%, 1.8x the 2018 super cycle peak (23.6%). The combination of HBM4 mass production and DRAM price surge has structurally confirmed the memory super cycle. DCF analysis yields a Base Case fair value of KRW 325K and probability-weighted fair value of KRW 295K, indicating the current price of KRW 193K represents structural undervaluation.
NVIDIA Deep Dive: The Next Decade of the AI Empire
Comprehensive analysis of NVIDIA's transformation from a GPU company to a full-stack AI platform.
SK Hynix Deep Dive: The Value of the HBM Throne
In-depth analysis of SK Hynix's dominant position in the HBM market and its structural valuation premium.
Samsung Biologics Deep Dive: The CDMO Throne
Analysis of Samsung Biologics' competitive advantages as the world's largest biologics CDMO.
Investment Ideas
View all 116NVIDIA — Undisputed AI Accelerator Leader, B200/B300 Cycle in Full Swing
SK hynix — Global #1 in HBM, Top Beneficiary of the Memory Super Cycle
Vertiv — Top Beneficiary of AI Data Center Cooling/Power, Orders +252%
Samsung Electronics — Record Q1 Confirms Memory Super Cycle
Eli Lilly — Undisputed Leader in the GLP-1 Obesity Treatment Market
Hanwha Aerospace — Spearhead of K-Defense Exports, European Orders Expanding
GE Vernova — Core Beneficiary of the Gas Turbine Demand Explosion
| Symbol | Theme | Conviction | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
NVIDIA NVIDIA — Undisputed AI Accelerator Leader, B200/B300 Cycle in Full Swing | AI Accelerators & Fabless | 2/24 | |
SK hynix SK hynix — Global #1 in HBM, Top Beneficiary of the Memory Super Cycle | AI Memory & HBM | 2/24 | |
VRT Vertiv — Top Beneficiary of AI Data Center Cooling/Power, Orders +252% | Data Center Power & Cooling | 2/24 | |
Samsung Electronics Samsung Electronics — Record Q1 Confirms Memory Super Cycle | Korean AI Infrastructure Beneficiaries | 4/7 | |
Eli Lilly Eli Lilly — Undisputed Leader in the GLP-1 Obesity Treatment Market | K-Bio & Drug Development | 2/24 | |
Hanwha Aerospace Hanwha Aerospace — Spearhead of K-Defense Exports, European Orders Expanding | Defense & Aerospace | 2/24 | |
GEV GE Vernova — Core Beneficiary of the Gas Turbine Demand Explosion | Gas Turbines & On-Site Power Generation | 2/25 |