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KOSPI-5.12%

S&P 500+1.48%

NASDAQ+2.13%

USD/KRW-0.40%

BTC-0.07%

VIX-1.80%

Newmoneymoves Research · Coverage

Coverage —
Published names return tracker

Equal-weight backtest · Coverage
+4.2%vs KOSPI -10.5% · S&P 500 +3.7%
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20 covered names · equal-weight backtest from publication dates · as of 2026-08-03 — full methodology disclosed

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Coverage portfolioKOSPIS&P 500

13 themes · 131 stocks · 93 reports

Stocks →Crypto →

01Special

Theme Deep Dive🔬Advanced105 min read

The AI infrastructure trade is now repriced not by 'which theme you belong to' but by 'who gets paid first and who is left holding only a claim.' In July 2026, after a record momentum-factor liquidation and the Kimi K3 shock, the credit market has split the same hyperscalers' default insurance threefold while the equity market still calls them one bucket. Even within 'memory,' an LTA-protected contract asset and a spot-exposed asset sit at different points in the payment order; even within 'power,' an equipment maker paid on delivery and an SPV that recovers via rent sit at opposite ends of the spectrum. This report adds a vertical axis dividing prepaid from deferred to the four-tier settlement system, dissecting the payment structure of the AI infrastructure stack.

HHaelangdal·Jul 21

Key Numbers

The payment gapTop-5 hyperscaler 2026 capex ~$…

Bond issuance

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Live Market

Core instruments moving 24/7 via tokenized perpetuals — even on weekends and holidays

Full weekend RWA dashboard

Auto-refresh every 15s · Hyperliquid xyz perpetual mark

DATA CONTROL

DATA TERMINALS

Pick a metric, jump into its terminal — see them all in the hub

Samsung·SK hynix·Micron — DRAM & NAND

+60%DRAM contract price QoQ

Trade & Export Nowcast

Korea customs exports + Taiwan AI-chain monthly revenue — one terminal

$41.2BKorea semi YoY +176% · Taiwan AI-chain +61%

AI datacenter backlog vs energized GW — 3D map

7.9 GWFrontier live total

NVIDIA rack BOM + 9-layer AI value chain

$3.1MGB200 NVL72 rack total

AI-infra segment CAGRs & chokepoints by layer

85%top segment CAGR

Verbatim shortage quotes from earnings calls

42verbatim shortage quotes

Wall Street giants' SEC 13F top positions

28인Wall St. gurus · 13F

US margin debt & Korea credit — leverage gauge

4.1%US margin debt/GDP · median 1.5%

AI Macro Data Terminal

Country indices, AI-company EPS & CapEx + JARVIS insights

$501BAI 20-co 2025 CapEx consensus

Major-coin prices, kimchi premium, perp funding & RWA perps

45y of max drawdowns, rolling 2-mo declines & run-ups

-28.5%off the high · rolling 2-mo in top 1.62% ever

Cross-asset sync, KRW-DXY correlation & rate beta on one board

Memory 12MF P/E

Forward P/E decomposition & trailing bands — Samsung·SK hynix·Micron

Quarterly OCF, capex & FCF for M7 + Oracle, cloud growth and guidance verdicts

Earnings Tracker

Quarterly revenue, EPS & cash flow for 25 names — surprises and source reconciliation

8/12of the latest reports beat EPS consensus

Korean Retail in US Stocks

Depository custody & net-buy top 10 — single stocks, ETFs, leveraged ETFs

10.4%leveraged ETFs in the custody top 50

Daily QuizQUIZ

Samsung's peer-valuation normalization scenario:

Pick an answer to reveal the explanation

02SPOT

03Editorial

Global Investment through Themes

Content

Themes Ideas Reports Earnings

Explore

Guide ETFs Perspectives Telegram NVIDIA Portfolio Weekly Review Credit & Leverage

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© 2026 NewMoneyMoves. All rights reserved.

~$28B/yr avg (2020–24) → $121B …

Hyperscaler CDSAlphabet 32bp vs Microsoft 85.7…

Private creditAUM $500B (10 yrs ago) → $2.1T;…

Scenarios as ranges and triggers — no probability-weighted targets.

Editorial Tracksubjective analysis · theses · metaphors

Perspectives.

One in front, the rest in 3D — rotate through.

The Unwind of Japanese Money — How Yen Strength Travels Into US Treasuries and Risk Assets

DEEP DIVE🔬Advanced

The Unwind of Japanese Money — How Yen Strength Travels Into US Treasuries and Risk Assets

A joint US-Japan intervention at a four-decade low, a rate gap collapsing from the Japanese side, and the changed composition of a 2.5160 trillion dollar stock — the sequence of the unwind and where to confirm it

Who Gets Paid First

DEEP DIVE🔬Advanced

Jul 21·105 min

Who Gets Paid First

Dissecting the payment structure of the AI infrastructure stack — prepaid vs. deferred

A Comparative Study of Memory Cycles — Five Winters, and a Sixth Question

DEEP DIVE🔬Advanced

A Comparative Study of Memory Cycles — Five Winters, and a Sixth Question

1996 DRAM, 2001 optical, the 2018 peak, the 2023 downturn, 2025 DeepSeek — re-verifying five collapses with one yardstick: no winter was ever caused by dying demand. The 2026 coordinate is a late upcycle overlapping a leading equity correction

Anatomy of a Deleveraging — When Korea's Leverage Curb Lands on the Momentum Unwind

DEEP DIVE🔬Advanced

Anatomy of a Deleveraging — When Korea's Leverage Curb Lands on the Momentum Unwind

How a 30m-won cash barrier reorders flows: the upside pipe, the downside amplifier, and the balloon across the Pacific

ChangXin Memory (CXMT) — The Price of the Listing Venue: Deconstructing China's DRAM Champion IPO

DEEP DIVE🔬Advanced

ChangXin Memory (CXMT) — The Price of the Listing Venue: Deconstructing China's DRAM Champion IPO

A record 57.9-billion-yuan STAR Market raise with a 6% day-one float by design — what sets the opening price is neither DRAM nor HBM but the listing venue itself. The premium expires in July 2027, when the lockups come off

04COMPANY

Company Reports

One in front, the rest in 3D — rotate through the latest 10.

Alphabet — How the Rebound in H100 Rental Prices Redraws Hyperscaler Cash Flow

7/31/2026·36 min read

Alphabet — How the Rebound in H100 Rental Prices Redraws Hyperscaler Cash Flow

Alphabet's second quarter of 2026 recorded 82% growth at Google Cloud and the first negative free cash flow since the IPO on the same day. Equity markets answered with a drop while credit markets did not move, and the reason for that gap sits in the price of rented compute. The one-year contracted rate for an H100 rose from a floor of $1.70 an hour in October 2025 to $2.35 by March 2026, about 40% in five months, and on-demand capacity is effectively sold out across accelerator types. If commitments locked in cheaply during the glut renew at 1.5–2 times the trough, revenue per unit of installed capacity rises with no incremental capital spending and the whole operating cash flow path shifts up. This report lays operating cash flow, capex, free cash flow, cloud growth and backlog side by side across the hyperscalers using measured data, and sets out why Alphabet is the operator where that price path is least reflected in reported results — and therefore where the most room remains once it starts to land. It then works through the depreciation curve and the lease backstop structure before fixing the test date on the direction of third-quarter operating cash flow on October 29.

Amazon — Compute Rental Pricing Turned, and the Capex Inflation Is Passing Through

7/31/2026·35 min read

Amazon — Compute Rental Pricing Turned, and the Capex Inflation Is Passing Through

Amazon raised 2026 capex guidance to $220B and attributed the $20B increase to memory pricing. In the same quarter the AWS operating margin hit a record 39.4%. When a margin sets a record in the phase where depreciation is climbing fastest, selling prices rose faster than costs, and the substance behind that price is compute rental pricing. Hourly rental for training-class GPUs fell from $7-10 in early 2024 to $2-4 by the end of 2025, then rebounded roughly 40% in the five months from the autumn 2025 trough, with on-demand capacity effectively sold out. If commitments locked in during the cheap phase are renewed at today's rates, contract pricing lands at 1.5 to 2 times the old level. This report places operating cash flow, capital expenditure, free cash flow, cloud growth and backlog for the major cloud operators on one axis, and sets out the indicators that decide whether −$7.6B of free cash flow is the result of cost pressure or a trough recorded before the price increase lands.

Nebius — GPU Rents Are Rising Again, and Where a Neocloud Sits on the Cloud Cash Flow Map

7/31/2026·28 min read

Nebius — GPU Rents Are Rising Again, and Where a Neocloud Sits on the Cloud Cash Flow Map

The GPU rental market has flipped from a buyer's market to a seller's. One-year H100 contract rates bottomed at $1.70 an hour in October 2025 and reached $2.35 by March 2026. Over the same stretch cloud segments at the large providers reaccelerated together, and backlogs swelled to $678 billion at Microsoft, $638 billion at Oracle, $514 billion at Google Cloud and $496 billion at AWS. Rising capital expenditure pushed quarterly free cash flow negative at Google and Amazon, but the market has begun accepting the argument that contracts struck in the cheap period, renewed at one and a half to two times the rate, would change how fast that outlay is recovered. The businesses that feel this most directly are the GPU landlords, for whom the rental rate is the unit price of revenue. Nebius turned $399.0 million of first-quarter 2026 revenue into $2,258 million of operating cash flow — money customers paid in advance. Its selling price is exposed to the upside, its component costs are locked at 2025 prices, and a large share of its equipment funding comes interest-free from customers. One variable remains: the commissioning schedule.

KLA — The Monopoly Tollgate of Inspection, Where Shrinking Equals Revenue

6/20/2026·17 min read

KLA — The Monopoly Tollgate of Inspection, Where Shrinking Equals Revenue

KLA is the near-monopoly in semiconductor process control — inspecting and measuring whether chips are built correctly — with a 58% share. As nodes shrink and HBM and 3D packaging grow more complex, the number of inspections per chip rises, turning yield risk itself into KLA's revenue. Fiscal Q3 2026 revenue came in above consensus at $3.415B, and non-GAAP gross margin reached 62.2%, the best in the equipment industry. After a 10-for-1 stock split in June 2026, the stock trades around $259 with a market cap of roughly $339B (as of June 2026).

Arista Networks — The #1 Back-End Ethernet That Stitches AI Clusters Together

6/20/2026·17 min read

Arista Networks — The #1 Back-End Ethernet That Stitches AI Clusters Together

Arista Networks is the global #1 in back-end (accelerator-to-accelerator) Ethernet switching that stitches together tens of thousands of accelerators in an AI data center, and it sells the open-Ethernet camp as systems against NVIDIA's InfiniBand. Fiscal Q1 2026 revenue rose to $2.709B, up 35.1% year over year, and the company raised full-year guidance to $11.5B while lifting its AI networking revenue target to $3.5B. Market cap is roughly $200–213B (as of June 2026). The switch silicon built by Broadcom, Marvell, and Credo — which we have already covered — is what Arista bundles into boxes that cloud operators use directly.

05Today

Daily
News.

2026-08-03

KOSPI -5.12% to 6,257 — Pullback After Record Surge

Foreign and institutional selling clawed back part of the record gain while the KOSDAQ rose 2%.

Amazon Tops $3 Trillion — CSP-Winner Setup Confirmed

Amazon jumped 4.6% to cross $3 trillion for the first time as the S&P 500 closed above 7,600.

Trump Cancels Iran Strike — Oil Drops 5%

News of revived talks knocked oil down 5%, supporting risk appetite.

Dollar-Won at 1,429.8 — Squeeze-Driven Dollar Weakness

The dollar-won fell 5.8 won to 1,429.8 as yen-led dollar weakness ran on.

The KOSPI caught its breath, giving back 5.12% to 6,257. Amazon crossed $3 trillion for the first time and the S&P 500 closed above 7,600, confirming the CSP-winner setup after the unwind.

Trump's canceled Iran strike sent oil down 5%, adding fuel to the rally.

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Who Gets Paid First

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LIVE· MARKET BRIEFING

haelangdal Market Briefing

Market notes

8/4 22:12 KST#엔개입#공조#위안화#광트랜시버

베센트의 네 문장 — 경색의 달러 약세가 공조의 약세로 바뀌는 순간

Korean original (English coming soon)

미 재무장관 베센트가 미·일 공동 엔 매수 개입을 공식 확인했다. 엔은 "상당한 저평가" 상태였고, 개입의 목적은 일본 방어가 아니라 아시아 안정화라고 했다. 위안화도 저평가라며 절상을 요구했고, 원화 변동성을 직접 거론했다. 여기에 호르무즈 해협 관련 합의 도출, 그리고 일본의 해외자산 축적이 지속 가능하다는 발언까지 — 네 문장이 한 인터뷰에서 나왔다.

Related:

8/3 23:00 KST#달러약세#엔캐리#CSP#캐펙스

두 개의 달러 약세 — 시장이 캐펙스 둔화를 프라이싱할 때 CSP가 서 있는 자리

Korean original (English coming soon)

시장이 지금 프라이싱하는 가정은 하나다. 캐펙스 둔화. 메모리와 전력 주가는 이동평균을 이탈해 하락 일변도인데, 두 산업 모두 공급은 수년치가 팔려 있다. 팔린 물량과 떨어지는 주가가 공존하려면, 시장은 최종 지불자인 CSP의 지갑이 닫힌다는 쪽에 서 있어야 한다. DRAM 계약가 상승률이 1분기 +90%대에서 3분기 +13~18%로 감속한 것이 그 프라이싱의 근거다.

7/31 22:20 KST#엔캐리#미국채#AI크레딧#유가

엔 캐리 되감기와 AI 크레딧 — 일본의 미국채가 구두 개입에서 멈춰야 하는 이유

Korean original (English coming soon)

일본은 미국채 최대 해외 보유국이다. 어제 엔·달러는 BOJ 동결에도 QT 강화 시그널과 개입 의심 속에 장중 158선까지 밀렸다. 이 되감기가 구두 개입 선에서 끝나기를 바란다.

Haelangdal

Haelangdal

Haelangdal· Founder Analyst

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The Unwind of Japanese Money — How Yen Strength Travels Into US Treasuries and Risk Assets

Report · 38 min

Microsoft — Azure and AI software scale together

Google — AI cloud backlog drives re-rating

Haelangdal· Founder Analyst

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DeeperThe Unwind of Japanese Money — How Yen Strength Travels Into US Treasuries and Risk Assets

Haelangdal· Founder Analyst

Read full briefing

DeeperThe Unwind of Japanese Money — How Yen Strength Travels Into US Treasuries and Risk Assets